Friday, 31 July 2015

SWM July 2015 Report - Goa records lowest rains in last three years

South West Monsoons have put up poor performance in Goa in July 2015. The Arabian Sea branch of the SW Monsoons has generally remained less active this year, resulting in a weak off shore trough and poor rainfall all along the west coast of India, including Goa, as pointed out in earlier posts this month.

From June 1 to July 31, 2015 the rainfall departure from normal was -21% for Goa.



During July 2015 the departure from normal was a whopping -28%


While the normal area weighted average rain for Goa in July is 1104 mm, in 2015 July Goa received only 791 mm, which was the lowest in last three years.


Consequently the cumulative rainfall till July 31, was also the lowest in last three years.


The most significant development was the poor rainfall recorded at Valpoi, the holder of the title of 'the wettest place in Goa' for many years. This year as on July 31, Valpoi had just managed to climb to the fourth spot, overall.



















In June the rains were mainly concentrated along the coast, but in July picked up in the interior areas.


Comparing the rainfall during this period in last three years, the striking feature that emerges is nearly 50% less rainfall recorded by Valpoi in 2015 than in 2013. Pernem, Sanguem, Sankhali and Ponda have also recorded significantly lower rainfall this year than in 2013, during this period. However rainfall during 2014 and 2015 are comparable as seen in this graph.




















Geographical region wise, Goa presents a mixed result as seen in this map, though normally rains increase as you travel westwards towards the ghats:


The rainfall graph for Vagaries Goa rain gauge at Aquem, Margao, tells the story of dry days, clear skies and lots of sunshine in July. There were 5 dry days with nil rains and 6 days with rains of 5 mm or less. Heaviest rainfall - 162 mm - was recorded in 24 hrs ending 0830 hrs on July 25.






















The day and night temperatures were similar to June with average high at 31.45C and average low at 25C.

The above scenario of deficient rains in Goa till date, fits in with the pan India story of poor rains on the west coast this season, as seen in the map for cumulative sub - divisional wise rainfall for India, released by IMD on July 31, 2015.


The good news is that in spite of this, India overall has received good rains so far, with only -5% deficiency.

A word of caution though: with two more months to go before the SWM season officially ends, this picture can change dramatically!