Feels like winter is round the corner! Posted October 30, 2014

After months of hot and humid weather and the monsoon rains and then more rains, the morning of October 30 dawned with a sure promise of Winter round the corner, albeit Goa style!

October 30 morning recorded the lowest temperature of the month so far at 21.3C!

A lovely morning with cool winds, blue skies and soft sunshine.

It can only get better and cooler from here, for those of us who have had enough of the rains and the heat!!

The day highs will continue to be between 31-33 C for still some more days!

Cyclone Nilofar has rapidly downgraded to a deep depression at 1730 IST on October 30, from a category 4 cyclone within 36 hrs. It lay to the west south west of Kutch and is expected to bring some heavy showers to Kutch in Gujarat and Sindh in Pakistan. But these regions will be spared of any cyclonic threats.

For those desiring more detailed information on Cyclone Nilofar, please checkout the regular posts from Weather Guru Rajesh Kapadia at http://www.vagaries.in

October 28 heralds a beautiful day ahead!

Clear blue skies, cool winds at 25C at 8 am in Margao Goa herald a beautiful day ahead for Goa!

Nil rainfall was recorded almost all over Goa during the last 24 hrs and today seems no different!

This makes a mockery of the scary newspaper headlines in today's local paper though!

With north west part of Arabial Sea and moving north/ north eastward, the impact on Goa is expected to be minimal or nil!

Goa gets a respite from incessant rains on October 27

After receiving heavy rains from the developing cyclone Nilofer on October 24 evening and October 25, rains eased on Ocober 26 even though skies remained highly overcast.

During 24 hrs ending 0830 hrs on October 27, Vagaries Goa rain gauge at Margao recorded only 21 mm compared to 130 mm and 158 mm on 25th and 26th respectively.

Clouds have thinned out since the morning of 27th allowing pleasant sunshine and glimpses of deep blue skies. No rainfall has been reported till the time of posting.

The cyclone is almost stationery off the coast of Oman and is expected to move towards Kutch/ Sindh.

The winds and moisture appears to be moving away from the west coast of India sucked into the cyclone.

However IMD has issued a heavy rains warning for 27th and isolated heavy rains warning for the 28th, and we shall keep a watch on the situation!

Heavy Rains continue for 2nd Day running - Updated October 26, 2014

Heavy overcast conditions with heavy downpours continued in Goa for a second day under the influence of developing Cyclone Nilufer now located at 14.2N and 63.0E, having moved NE as per the analysis in this latest post at Vagaries of Weather Blog.

IMD reports 138 mm at Panaji for 24 hrs ending 0830 on October 26.

However, Vagaries Goa Rain Gauge at Margao recorded 158 mm during  the same period. Of this nearly 125 mm (5 inches) was recorded during only 6 hrs from 11 pm to 5 am! This brings the total rainfall recorded at Margao in 48 hrs to 288 mm (11.34 inches). 

There are reports of wall collapses, trees falling and water logging from many parts of Margao. No loss of life has been reported yet.

Retaining wall between Daud Residency & Pratibha Soc , Aquem, Margao collapsed (photo courtesy Avadhut Kudchadkar)

The rains have eased off since 8 am, but the skies continue to be overcast.

The location of the deep depression in the Arabian Sea appears to have triggered the rains along 15th parallel on both the East Coast and West Coast during early morning hours of October 26, as seen in this EUMETSAT image at 0500 IST:

The showers are forecast to continue till Tuesday October 28 at least!
 

Heavy Rains Lash Goa - Cloud Burst over Margao! Posted October 25, 2014

Those who follow the frequent updates at Vagaries Goa's Facebook Page, will already be aware that the Deep Depression currently raging in the Arabian Sea off the Coast of Goa and which was expected to bring rains to Goa this weekend, has done just that and how!

The rains started all over Goa around 4 pm on October 24. The EUMETSAT image at 1830 IST clearly shows the developing cells over Goa and along the coast south of Goa:

It quickly became clear that Margao was getting more rains than anywhere else.

The Vagaries Goa Rain gauge at Margao was sprinting fast!

Rains started in Margao at 1630 hrs and within the first hour 33 mm were recorded. 72 mm were recorded within 2 and 1/2 hrs. The tally had climbed to 119 mm in 5 hrs till 2100 hrs, when the rains began to ease. Final tally for 24 hrs ending 0830 hrs on October 25 stood at 130 mm at Vagaries Goa. IMD's official reading at Margao was a tad lower at 122.8 mm.

Thus Margao recorded more rains in 12 hrs than in the entire month of October till date. Unfortunately past records are not available for Margao, but this must count amongst the all time maximum recorded on an October day!

In comparison Panaji recorded only 19.9 mm, while the next highest was recorded by Quepem at 60 mm and Sanguem at 57.5 mm.

The rains of October 24-25 in Margao  took the total tally for the month of October so far to 195.1 mm making it the wettest place in Goa in October so far! Sanguem was second at 182.4 mm and Valpoi third at 171.1 mm.


Rainfall recorded in 24 hours at 0830 hrs on October 25, 2014 (Source IMD)
 

Goa continued to be covered in thick clouds from the Arabian Sea disturbance throughout the morning of October 25, and Vagaries Goa recorded 25 mm rains till 1300 hrs. It was as if the June weather at the start of Monsoons had returned!



Margao at 0800 hrs on October 25, 2014

As explained at the Blog Vagaries of Weather in the latest post here,  scattered rains from the developing cyclone are expected to continue in Goa till Tuesday. The day highs may come down to 32-33C and lows to 25-26C.




Hot Diwali ahead - Posted October 17, 2014

School Holidays have started for the long Diwali vacation Holidays and that's just good as well, because the October Heat is really setting in Goa and how do you study and answer mid term exams in this sweltering heat?

 Ever since the SW Monsoon withdrew from Goa on October 12 - check this post, the day temperatures and the night temperatures have been steadily hitting north!

As per the temperature records maintained by IMD Goa, From October 1 to October 15, 2014, we get the following data for the first half of October:

Day Max Temp - 33.7C on October 5
Day Min Temp - 30.8C on October 8

Night Max Temp - 25.3C on October 3 and 13
Night Min Temp - 22.9C on October 7

Average Day Temp - 32.45C
Average Night Temp - 24.35C

However the first day of the second half, October 16, turned out to be the hottest month so far!

IMD Goa at Panaji recorded:

Day High - 35.3C
Night Low - 25.9C

While the humidity hovered over 85% in the morning, by afternoon it dropped to 50%, again rising in the evening under the influence of the winds blowing from the sea! The Heat Index touching 45C!

(Source: IMD-AWS Data for Panaji October 16, 2014)

As the hot dry winds continue to blow over Goa from the East till around noon and the cooler winds from the west and North west commence only in the later part o the day, it looks like day and night temperatures are set to hover around 36 - 37C and 27- 28C at least for the next few days, with Real Feel of temperature touching as high as 45C in the afternoon!

So get set for a Hot Diwali this year!! 

SWM withdraws from Goa, October 13, 2014

The weather blog Vagaries of Weather has estimated that South West Monsoon 2014 has finally withdrawn from the Konkan belt, including Goa as mentioned in its  post on October 12 at http://www.vagaries.in/2014/10/posted-sunday-morning-severe-cyclone.html

Monday morning October 13 saw most of Goa enveloped in mild to thick fog. Goa may have seen the last of the thunderstorms this year on Saturday October 11. There were no reports of rain from any part of Goa on October 12 or 13.

While early mornings are humid, the hot winds have started blowing from N and NW during late mornings and afternoons. The day max temperature is set to cross 33C and will hover around 34-35C in the coming days as October heat from Winds blowing from the North begins to be felt.

The easterly blowing jet streams at 200 hPa have shifted below 15N and westerlies are now turning south as seen here:

However IMD's limit of monsoon withdrawal map still shows the SWM active below Mumbai on the west coast!

So finally the monsoon winds which reached Goan shores this year on June 11, 2014 have finally withdrawn on October 12, 2014! 

Heavy Downpour in one hour on October 8 in Parts of Goa - Posted October 9, 2014

Retreating Monsoon unleashed the heaviest downpour of the month so far this year on October 8, 2014 when Panaji recorded 37.2 mm followed by Quepem with 26 mm and Margao with 23.4 mm. Almost all the rain fell between 10.30 am and 11.30 am and was accompanied by lightening and thunder. Surprisingly barring  Sanguem (16.2 mm) and Dabolim (12.8 mm) all other places in Goa experienced Nil or just traces of rainfall. Mormugao which is within 5 km radius of Dabolim received just traces. Sunshine prevailed over rest of the state throughout the day.

Vagaries recorded 20 mm at Margao. The Daily Rainfall Chart for October 2014 at Vagaries Goa, Margao

This behaviour is typical of retreating of monsoon this time of the year. However IMD Goa has attributed this rain to the effect on wind flow due to the developing Cyclone Hudhud in Bay of Bengal! IMD Goa Official quoted in Times of India

Such short showers accompanied by thunder and lightening in isolated parts of Goa are expected to continue till October 12, after which the monsoon withdrawal from the state should be a hastened one.

As on today October 9, the Tropical Cyclone is rapidly intensifying and is expected to make landfall near Andhra-Odisha border between October 11 and 12 as a severe storm.

However its effect on Goa could be limited to overcast skies and scattered showers from 10th to 12th October. The Direction the wind will take will determine the extent of the impact in Goa.

Following satellite image and computer generated graphics of wind flow illustrate the severe nature  and the likely path of Cyclone Hudhud.

 

Current weather in Goa

Rains have been sparse, 'hit and miss' across Goa.

Top rains recorded in the last two days in 24hrs period ending 08:30 hrs are:

Oct 11 - Old Goa - 12.5 mm

Oct 12 - Margao - 14.5 mm

It was dry in majority areas.

Day max temp is around 31.5 C

Night min temp is around 24.5 C

Humidy is in the 90s in the mornings and dew and fog are common at many places.

Humidity reduces into the 70s in the evenings.

A weak trough exists along the Arabian Coast, but rain activity will remain subdued till the depression reaches west traveling from the east.