After the excellent rains of June, Goa along with the whole of West Coast of India has performed very poorly so far in July. In the the first 15 days of July, Goa has received average rainfall of just 55.6% of normal, leading to a deficiency of a whopping -44.4% in this fortnight.
A comparison of rainfall received between July 1 to 15 in 2014 and 2015, clearly shows that most of the towns in Goa got 50% or less rainfall this year, in the same period.
However surprisingly, compared to 2014, the situation this year is not much different for the seasonal rainfall from June 1 to July 15. In 2015 the departure from normal is -24% , while in 2014 it was -23%. Click on this post and this post for reports of June 2014 and Mid July 2014.
July normally accounts for nearly 37% of the monsoon rains. A worrying picture emerges this year, because of the -44% deficiency in July so far, making it amply clear that only a spectacular revival in the second half of July and the rest of the season, can lead to normal monsoons this year. Otherwise we are heading for deficient rans in Goa this year.
This year the S W Monsoon has performed very poorly all along the West Coast of India.
Saurashtra (-21%), Gujarat Region (-52%), Konkan & Goa (-27%), Madhya Maharshtra (-30%), Marathwada (-44%), N. I. Karnataka (-32%), Coastal Karnataka (-26%) and Kerala (-32%) are all in the red, even though the All India Rainfall figure shows a departure from normal figure of only -6%!
For reasons analysed in this post, clearly the Arabian Sea Branch of the S W Monsoons has failed so far, even as the Bay of Bengal Branch and the rainfall from Western Disturbances have resulted in good rains for the N and NW parts of the country.
Though the latest satellite image of July 16 is not very encouraging for west coast of India, as per the analysis of the blog Vagaries of the Weather, things will look up for Konkan region and the west coast from Saturday July 18.
Statistically, the SW monsoon rainfall deficiency at -24%, this year, at the time of posting this blog on July 16, 2015, is almost same as that in 2014, this time of the year! However last year, the Monsoon was on the upswing in July, while for July 2015 it is woefully short by -44% so far, and the trough off the coast of Goa, is still weak! But with it expected to strengthen over next few days, as well as the expected favourable developments in Bay of Bengal, let us see if the rains take quantum jump in volume for the rest of the season!
Stay tuned!!
A comparison of rainfall received between July 1 to 15 in 2014 and 2015, clearly shows that most of the towns in Goa got 50% or less rainfall this year, in the same period.
However surprisingly, compared to 2014, the situation this year is not much different for the seasonal rainfall from June 1 to July 15. In 2015 the departure from normal is -24% , while in 2014 it was -23%. Click on this post and this post for reports of June 2014 and Mid July 2014.
July normally accounts for nearly 37% of the monsoon rains. A worrying picture emerges this year, because of the -44% deficiency in July so far, making it amply clear that only a spectacular revival in the second half of July and the rest of the season, can lead to normal monsoons this year. Otherwise we are heading for deficient rans in Goa this year.
This year the S W Monsoon has performed very poorly all along the West Coast of India.
Saurashtra (-21%), Gujarat Region (-52%), Konkan & Goa (-27%), Madhya Maharshtra (-30%), Marathwada (-44%), N. I. Karnataka (-32%), Coastal Karnataka (-26%) and Kerala (-32%) are all in the red, even though the All India Rainfall figure shows a departure from normal figure of only -6%!
For reasons analysed in this post, clearly the Arabian Sea Branch of the S W Monsoons has failed so far, even as the Bay of Bengal Branch and the rainfall from Western Disturbances have resulted in good rains for the N and NW parts of the country.
Though the latest satellite image of July 16 is not very encouraging for west coast of India, as per the analysis of the blog Vagaries of the Weather, things will look up for Konkan region and the west coast from Saturday July 18.
Statistically, the SW monsoon rainfall deficiency at -24%, this year, at the time of posting this blog on July 16, 2015, is almost same as that in 2014, this time of the year! However last year, the Monsoon was on the upswing in July, while for July 2015 it is woefully short by -44% so far, and the trough off the coast of Goa, is still weak! But with it expected to strengthen over next few days, as well as the expected favourable developments in Bay of Bengal, let us see if the rains take quantum jump in volume for the rest of the season!
Stay tuned!!
