Under the influence of the revived trough off the west coast, Goa has been receiving medium to heavy rains since the night of July 23. The rains are expected to continue into Sunday and beyond into August, as synoptic conditions are getting favourable for a good spell of rainfall over most of the country.
In 24 hrs ended 0830 on July 24, Margao recorded the highest daily rainfall of 51.3 mm as per IMD, while Vagaries Goa rain gauge at Aquem, Margao recorded 62 mm during the same period. Canacona recorded 44.2 mm and Sanguem 41.6 mm. The area weighted average for Goa as a whole was around 25 mm as per IMD observations.
Check http://weatheringoa.blogspot.in/p/swm-2015-goa-graphs-and-charts.html for daily rainfall figures and seasonal totals, as well as departure from normal rains. As of July 24, the departure from normal this season so far is -26%.
Rains have continued in Margao with same intensity since morning of July 24 and at the time of posting at 1700 hrs, Vagaries Goa rain gauge had recorded 52 mm in 8.5 hours.
As per All India Weather Inference (www.imd.gov.in) issued by IMD at 1130 hours on July 24:
- A low pressure area has formed over West Madhya Pradesh and adjoining East Rajasthan
- The axis of monsoon trough passes through Jaisalmer, centre of low pressure area, Sagar, Umaria, Hazaribag, Santiniketan and thence south eastwards to northeast Bay of Bengal
- The upper air cyclonic circulation over West Rajasthan & neighbourhood has merged with monsoon trough
- The upper air cyclonic circulation over Saurashtra & Kutch and adjoining northeast Arabian Sea persists
- The upper air cyclonic circulation over north Chhattisgarh and adjoining Jharkhand & Odisha persists
- A fresh upper air cyclonic circulation is likely to form over north Bay of Bengal on 25th
All this augers well for both Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal branches of the S W Monsoon to remain active over next few days, bringing good rains not only to Goa but to most of Indian Sub-continent.
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| July 24, 2015 |
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| July 30 projection by IMD using GFS |
The weather blog Vagaries of the Weather in its latest post, which you can read in detail by clicking on this link , has given an easy to understand graphical representation of the current weather scenario and projections for Sunday July 26:
Based on this: expect average 30 - 40 mm per day rainfall in Goa till July 26. Many spells during the day could be heavy, and many areas could receive more than 40 mm rainfall. Of course there will be breaks in between and skies may occasionally clear.
In all probabilities and as per various models, these rains may also continue further into next week. Whether with higher intensity or lower intensity, we shall examine in a subsequent post!
