Goa South West Monsoon 2016, The Final Analysis

The South West Monsoon Season 2016 in Goa, lasting from June 1 to September 2016 was normal this year. But the monthly rainfall showed wide variation in departure from Normal (%), except in the month of September.

Following Graphs and figures give a good picture of how the monsoon season unfolded in Goa this year.

Data is from IMD, Goa Center.

1) Daily Variation of Seasonal Rainfall (Graph from http://www.imdgoa.gov.in)

2) Monthly and Total Rainfall Figures June to September 2016:

3) Monthly Departure from Normal (%):

4) Seasonal Rainfall Recorded at major towns in Goa:

Pernem in North Goa was the surprise wettest place in Goa this year. The usual wettest place, Valpoi, at the base of Western Ghats, received poor rainfall in June and as a result finished outside top five wettest places. Mormugao and Dabolim also made surprise appearance in top 5 places, mainly on account of strong showing in June.

5) Month-wise Seasonal Rainfall for Major Towns in Goa:

6) Seasonal Rainfall recorded at Major Towns on Map of Goa:

7) Comparison of 2016 Seasonal Rainfall with past Years:

From this graph we observe that during the last 4 years, except for the month of September, there is a great variation in the monthly rainfall amount YoY. Additionally, this year July lost the honour of normally being the wettest month of the year.

An excellent Final analysis of the performance of the SW Monsoon this year over India as a whole is given in the popular weather blog 'Vagaries of the Weather' at this LINK

According that analysis the Sub-Division of Konkan and Goa has the honour of being the wettest sub-division in the country this year.

The total All India Rainfall this year was in normal range finishing -2.87% below normal.

Though the official SW Monsoon season has ended, the withdrawal of the SW Monsoon has been limited to NW India till October 6, the date of writing this post.

Goa is expected to receive scattered light rainfall, till the monsoon withdraws completely by late second half of October.

Monsoon in Goa in August 2016 - Deficient rains bring the seasonal rains just below normal

The SW Monsoon continued its below normal performance from July into August 2016, but to a much greater extent.

Against a normal rainfall of 681 mm in August, Goa received just 497 mm this year showing a deficiency of -27%! 

This took the the seasonal rainfall this year from June 1 till August 31 to 2663.7 mm ( 104.9 inches) against a normal of 2691.5 mm (106 inches) i.e. -1% below normal from +8% above normal at the beginning of the month.

The SW Monsoon in Goa has continued to remain just around normal mainly due to the 35% excess rains it received in June '16, even though July rains were -13% below normal.

Inspite of the poor rains in August this year, the seasonal rains so far have performed better than in 2015 and 2013 and almost as good as in 2014, at this time of the year.

In the graph below, the rains for 2013 are for Panjim Center only, as IMD had not started the Average Weighted Area Rainfall for Goa that it adopted from 2014 onwards.

Overall in August this year there were just 6 days which had normal or above normal rains.

Source: IMD, Goa Centre

During August the interior areas, particularly at the base of western Ghats received heavier rainfall than coastal areas.

A number of rain centers crossed the 2500 mm and the 100 inch seasonal rainfall milestone in August.

Mormugao lost the top spot to Pernem and Valpoi and Sankhali continued to see late seasonal surge!

Though the S W Monsoon starts withdrawing from Rajasthan normally around September 5, Goa continues to experience fairly good monsoon activity throughout September.

The official SW Monsoon season ends on September 30, but the rains have been seen to be continuing in Goa and S India into October in recent years.

Though La Nina has been delayed, the overall deficiency is very low and a good spell of monsoon rains in September can turn the seasonal rainfall into excess!

So, we have a whole month to wait and watch!

Monsoon Rainfall in Goa crosses 100 inches mark - Posted August 24, 2016

After a long break of 10 days, SW Monsoon has again become vigorous over Goa since August 23.

This has given the final push for the Area Weighted Average Rainfall to cross the 100 inches milestone, on August 23, 2016.

Till 0830 hrs on August 24, 2016, Goa had recorded 101.4 inches (2576.1 mm) against normal of 102.1 inches (2593.4 mm) for this time, showing a departure of just -1% from normal.

The top five wettest towns have all crossed 100 inches.

Pernem          117.44 inches
Mormugao    114.54 inches
Sankhali        113.05 inches
Margao          102.39 inches
Dabolim         102.35 inches

August has seen heaviest rains in the interior areas of Valpoi, Sakhali and Pernem

El Nino has turned Neutral, but La Nina is expected only in later half of the year.

The monsoon season so far has been normal over India and as of August 23, 2016, is showing a departure of just -2% from normal.

Karala, Guajarat, Punjab, Harayana, and the NE States have received below normal rainfall, while Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan have received excess. Rainfall has been normal over rest of the states.

The rainfall is expected to remain in the normal range for the rest of the season, as per IMD forecasts.

July 2016 - Monsoon turns laggard but stays overall above Normal!

Goa , received 13% less than normal rains in July 2016, but coming on the back of a bumper 35% above normal rains in June, the South West Monsoon has still managed to stay above normal for the Season so far by 8%!

As against normal rainfall of 1104 mm, July 2016 received just 948 mm, taking the seasonal rainfall from June 1 to July 31 to 2167 mm ie 85 inches.

In fact there were just 9 days with above normal rainfall in July, mainly due to the shift of the monsoon axis to the far north.

As per the records maintained by Vagaries Goa from the data published by IMD, Goa Centre, The rainfall in July 2016 is lower than that in July 2013 and 2014, but higher than in July 2015.

While the neighbouring coastal districts in North Konkan of Ratnagiri (1694 mm), Raigarh (1386 mm) and Sindhudurg (1255 mm) all figure in the top ten wettest districts of the country for July 2016, none of the two districts of Goa does, as per this post in the Blog Vagaries of the Weather.

The Top three wettest places in Goa in July were:

Pernem - 44.42 inches
Mormugao - 43.44 inches
Sankhali - 40.58 inches

Mormugao crossed the 100 inches mark for seasonal rainfall during July. Overall for the season from June 1 till July 31, 2016, the wettest places were:

1. Mormugao - 104.41 inches
2. Pernem - 97.27 inches
3. Dabolim - 93.33 inches

In Google Earth for geographic perspective and with rainfall in mm check this out:

India as a whole continues to have a good monsoon this year with the seasonal rainfall so far at the normal.

With half the monsoon season over and El Nino having ended, the rest of the season would appear to proceed in the normal path as per the latest forecast by IMD, released on August 1, 2016 and available here and extract from which is reproduced below:

We shall keep track of how the season unfolds in these very pages! Keep reading!

Monsoon vigorous over Goa - Posted July 21, 2016

Goa has been experiencing heavy to very heavy rains since Monday, under the influence of a weak trough off the coast of Goa.

Area weighted average seasonal rain for Goa from June 1 to July 21, 2016 has reached 1890 mm (74.4 inches), which is 15% excess over normal, for this time.

Mormugao has a seasonal total of 2300 mm (90 inches) the highest in Goa so far.

Vagaries Goa rain gauge at Margao has recorded 85 mm each on Wednesday 20 and Thursday 21.

Heavy rains are expected to continue over parts of Goa over next two days.

(Source: http://www.imdgoa.gov.in)

Mid July 2016 - Monsoon takes a break!

After an explosive start in June 2016, when Goa witnessed one of the wettest month of June in recent years, (read this post), monsoon has slowed down in Goa and mid July, can be definitely said to be taking a break.

Meteorologists speak of the Monsoon axis having shifted far north towards Indian Plains and the base of the the Himalayas, as being the main reason for this beak. But this situation is expected to last at most for another week, before monsoon is supposed to resume with vigor.

Against normal rainfall of 512.70 mm, Goa has received just 394.1 mm during the first 15 days of July, showing a deficiency of 22%!

However due to the 35% excess rainfall received in June this year, the cumulative rainfall as measured from June 1, 2016, is still around 14% above normal!

Source: IMD Goa Center

The top three rain centres during the first half of July 2016 were:

1. Pernem - 23.14 inches

2. Sakhali - 22.48 inches

3. Valpoi - 20.91 inches

Poor rains during July first half, for the June leaders Mormugao and Dabolim, allowed Pernem and Sankhali to leapfrog over these coastal towns!

Top five centres with cumulative rain figures from June 1 to July 15, 2016 are:

1. Pernem - 75.99 inches

2. Sankhali - 71.76 inches

3. Mormugao - 71.14 inches

4. Dabolim - 67.24 inches

5. Sanguem - 63.52 inches

The monthly variation can be seen better in the following graph:

The monsoons have now covered the entire country. As of July 15, the rainfall was 1% above normal as whole for the country. Only Gujarat, Saurashtra, Bihar, Assam and Tripura have received deficient rains.

The satellite picture for July 15, 2016, too makes for happy viewing!

IMD has predicted that the SW Monsoons, will be good this year and the season may extend well beyond September!

Watch these pages as the drama unfolds!

June 2016 - Monsoon performance over Goa

June 2016 saw Goa receiving the highest rainfall, amongst all other states in India, from both the pre monsoon and the actual South West Monsoons, even though the SW Monsoon was delayed and reached Goa only on June 10, officially.

Goa received area weighted average of 1215.9 mm (47.8 inches) of rainfall during this 30 day period, compared to 595.70 mm area weighted average rainfall for Kerala in the second place.

Thus Goa received nearly 35% above normal rains this year, which is also the highest total during June in the last 6 years.

Source: IMD, Goa Center

South Goa and North Goa also figure among the top five wettest districts of the country in June:

1. Udupi - 1322.00 mm

2. South Goa - 1307.80 mm

3. Sindhudurg - 1124.60 mm

4. North Goa - 1107.30 mm

5. Ratnagiri - 997.00 mm

(Source: The superb data presentation by GSB, at the website of the weather blog Vagaries of the Weather, which can be accessed by clicking on this link)

Mormugao and Dabolim centres topped with highest rain figures for June, mainly because of heavy pre - monsoon showers recorded. Surprisingly the the normally wettest place Valpoi received the lowest rainfall, as per IMD records.

Coastal areas of Goa, generally got better rainfall than the interior areas.

By June end SW Monsoon had covered almost the entire country. This year SW Monsoon is expected to be above normal for the country as a whole.

Of course we will continue to track the progress of the monsoons in the coming months!

Monsoon vigorous over Goa - Posted June 27, 2016

Though SW Monsoon arrived 4 days late on June 10, its performance in Goa so far has been above normal.

As per IMD records the top five centers with highest rainfall from June 1 till  8 am, June 27, 2016 are:

1. Mormugao - 1236.6 mm (48.69 inches)

2. Dabolim - 1056.7 mm (41.60 inches)

3. Canacona - 985.2 mm (38.79 inches)

4. Quepem - 954.0 mm (37.56 inches)

5. Panjim - 952.7 mm (37.51 inches)

Of course these figures include the pre - monsoon showers too, before June 10.

As seen above from the chart prepared by IMD Goa, Goa has so far received 17% above normal rainfall, mostly due the heavy rainfall last week.

The South West Monsoon has covered most of India, after initial lag, except N Gujarat, parts of Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, W UP and parts of NW, as seen in the monsoon progress chart from IMD, as of June 27, 2016.

Let's watch if the monsoon maintains its momentum, as it is forecast to do till October 2016!

Heavy Pre Monsoon Rains Lash Goa on June 6, 2016

Most parts of Goa experienced heavy pre monsoon showers on June 6, 2016 between 8 pm to 10:30 pm.

Under the influence of the UAC in the trough off coast, Goa is expected to receive regular pre monsoon showers from now till the onset of regular monsoon, around June 10.

However the trough is expected to further strengthen, and Goa may experience Monsoon rains as early as June 8th or 9th.

More details on the progress of monsoon at the Blog Vagaries of the Weather.

The rainfall recorded at various IMD Rain Gauges and Vagaries Rain Gauge at Aquem, Margao in 24 hrs ending 0830 hrs on June 7, 2016:

SWM 2016 Season in Goa, Pre Monsoon Start with a Bang - June 1, wettest day of the year recorded so far in 2016!

The First day of June was the wettest day of the month for Goa, as pre monsoon showers, accompanied by thunder and lightening, lashed many areas, specially South Goa. In nearly two hours of downpour well into the night.

 Mormugao received nearly 4 inches, Margao nearly 3 inches and Dabolim 2 inches of rain. Vagaries Goa Rain Gauge at Aquem, Margao also recorded 3 inches of rain.

The rainfall recorded at various centres across Goa, as per IMD, till 0830 hrs on June 2 is as follows:

The SW Monsoon arrival date for Goa this year is expected a little late on June 10th,

Click on this link to the earlier post that has all the details on the onset of Monsoon and its expected progress in Goa and elsewhere in June and July.

Pre monsoon showers are expected to continue with more frequency after June 4th, in Goa and along the Konkan coast.

S W Monsoon 2016 outlook for Goa - as per the Weather Blog "Vagaries of Weather"

Every year beginning mid April, the well known weather blogger Mr Rajesh Kapadia publishes in his blog "Vagaries of Weather" at http://www.vagaries.in, a series of posts aptly named as Monsoon Watch, analysing the synoptic conditions affecting the setting in of the S W Monssons over the Indian Sub Continent.

The fourth part of the series was posted on May 21 and gives a clearer picture of the onset of the monsoons. The article can be accessed here.

The main highlights of the monsoon onset this year are:

Synoptic situation as on May 21, 2015:
(1) Cyclonic storm ROANU in the Bay of Bengal, which brought copious rains to the East Coast, has weakened into a deep depression over Mizoram and is further expected to weaken into a well marked low pressure area over north east.
(2) The Bay of Bengal branch of the Monsoons has arrived in the Andamans on time
(3) Heat wave continues in the NW including Rajashan, Gujarat as also in Sindh in Pakistan, with temperatures crossing 50C. The seasonal low measuring 996/994 hPa is in place.
(4) Pre monsoon convective activity is seen over central and Penninsular India due to presence of wind discontinuity
(5) Equitorial Cross winds are now well organised. Somali Current is in place.
(6) El Nino conditions are weakening

Based on his experience and deep understanding of the various parameters affecting the onset and quantum of the S W Monssons, as detailed by him in his blog post, Mr  Rajesh Kapadia gives his estimate for the onset of monsoons and quantum of rains up to July 2016 as under:

Mr Kapadia expects that by June 15 S W Monsoon will advance from Kerala, throught upto Central India, into NE States and West Bengal. He expects Monsoon to advance into Central India and North India between June 20th and 30th.

For Goa the analysis presented in Vagaries of Weather would imply:

1. Onset of Monsoon by June 10, and

2. Slightly above Normal quantum of rain during June and July.

Thus the blog Vagaries of the Weather estimates Normal progress of the SWM and rainfall in all of sub continent regions!

Further, while weak El Nino conditions are persisting, there is a 50:50 chance, according to Mr Kapadia, of Neutral ENSO conditions as early as July. This would result, continuation of the Monsoon progress, without the normal mid season Monsoon Break!

For the record, while Vagaries of Weather estimates that Monsoon will reach Kerala by 4/5 June, IMD in its press release of May 15, forecasts the date of arrival of Monsoon at Kerala as June 7 +/- 4 days, ie any time between June 3 to June 11! Also the Preliminary forecast of IMD dated April 12, 2016 estimates the quantum this year as above normal (106% of LPA +/-5%).

SWM 2016 has just arrived in Indian territories! - Posted May 18, 2016

The much anticipated arrival of SW Monsoons is on schedule.

As per the latest mid day report of IMD on May 18, 2016, SW Monsoon has entered the Indian territories of South Andaman Sea and Nicobarese Islands.

 

From the IMD Mid day report :

"The Southwest Monsoon has advanced into some parts of southeast Bay of Bengal, entire south Andaman Sea and Nicobar Islands and someparts of north Andaman Sea today, the 18th May 2016. The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) passes through Lat. 5°N/ Long.86°E, Lat. 8°N/ Long 87° E Hut Bay and Lat. 12°N / Long. 99° E. Also conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some more parts of south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Islands and remaining parts of north Andaman Sea during next 3 to 4 days"

Though the normal arrival of SW Monsoon on West coast of Kerala is on June 1 and in Goa around June 5, IMD had forecast a delay of about a week in its press release of May 15th.

Climatological conditions over the next week, will determine if the forecast is correct or if the monsoons are on time this year!

Overcast conditions and thunder storms. First substantial pre Monsoon rains in Goa - Posted May 16, 2016

Goa has seen some thunderstorm activity over the weekend and continuing into Monday 16, 2016.

On Friday May 13 evening and Saturday May 14 late night, rains with thunder were reported mainly from South Goa, with Sanguem, Quepem and Margao recording most of the rains. On Sunday May 15, rains with thunder storm were reported from Valpoi and Ponda.

Vagaries Goa Rain Gauge at Margao, recorded 8 mm and 4 mm respectively in 24 hours ending 0830 hrs on May 14 and May 15.

These are the first  substantial pre-monsoon rains in Goa.

Skies have remained overcast and more rains are expected under the influence of the Deep Depression BB1 in the Bay of Bengal. BB1 is expected to move N/NW as of May 16.

Under its influence, heavy rainfall is forecast for Chennai and much of South India.

West coast of India from Kerala upto Goa will also get rains under influence from tise system, from Monday May 16 to Thursday19.

Heat Wave across India - but milder in Goa! - Posted May 3, 2016

The heat wave across India really began towards the end of April, and all indications at the start of May point to the heat wave getting stronger, specially in the North, North west, Central, South East and East.

For the week April 24 - 30, 2016 the Maximum temperatures across much of India were between 40 - 45C and minimum temperatures were hovering around 30C, as seen in the graphics below.

Goa saw maximum temperatures almost steady throughout the month of April 2016, between 34- 35C, while minimum temperatures climbed steadily from around 24C at the beginning of the month to over 27C by the end of the month.

Maximum temperatures in Goa during May usually peak around 37C and minimum temperatures can go upto 28 - 29C! A few thunder showers also occur during the month, as pre monsoon showers, helping to temporarily bring down the temperatures.

First two days of May has seen the heat wave spread to much of North India with N. Delhi (Palam) touching 46.2C, Gurgaon 46C, Agra 45.8C and most other cities showing the same trend!

In comparison the temperatures in Goa seem milder, but when one factors in the humidity of around 80 - 90% RH, the heat index easily crosses 40C!

All eyes are now on the Monsoon arrival! Normally May 15 is the Monsoons arrive at Andaman Inslands in the Bay of Bengal. But meteorological discussion boards are alive with speculation that while the SW Monsoons will be good this year they may be delayed by upto 10 days.

We will find out soon in this blog!

IMD forecasts above average Monsoon rains for June - September 2016!

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has some good news for rain starved country in its first long range forecast for South West Monsoons for 2016, released today, April 12, 2016.

Summary of the ESSO-IMD’s Operational long range Forecast for the 2016 Southwest monsoon rainfall

(a) Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%

(b) The 5 category probability forecasts for the Seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is given below:

  Category.            Rainfall Range (% of LPA).        Forecast Probability (%)

   Deficient.                        <90                                           1

      

   Below Normal.             90 - 96                                        5

    

   Normal.                        96 -104                                     30

  

Above Normal.                104 -110                                   34

      

   Excess                            >110                                      30

IMD will come out with more detailed forecast in June.

You can download today’s IMD press release for more details by clicking on the link below

http://www.imd.gov.in/pages/download.php?ff=press_release/20160412_pr_22.pdf

Temperature Trend in March for Goa - Get ready for warm mornings and hot days!

The last day of February 2016, saw the hottest morning of the month this year at 25.3C. The day was cloudy and there were reports of isolated rains in some parts of Goa. Rains in February end or March beginning are not rare in Goa. In fact 24 hrs ending 08:30 on March 1, 2015 saw Vagaries Goa recording 49 mm of rain!

IMD forecast for Goa March 1 and 2, 2016 indicates that rainfall is likely in some parts of Goa, along with central and western Maharashtra.

The overcast conditions resulted in higher morning temperatures on March 1, 2016 too, with the minimum temperature recording 25.3C again.

Historically the month of March sees morning lows slowly climbing to 27C, while days highs can touch 36-37C.

Checkout the comparison of daily temperature trends for the month of March for 2014 and 2015:

The average morning lows have been around 23-24C and average highs around 33-34C, as seen below for 2014 and 2015:

The trends should continue for 2016 too!

You can keep a track of the daily temperature movement at Panaji Goa on Vagaries Goa by clicking on this link http://weatheringoa.blogspot.in/p/daily-temperature-chart.html

When in Goa during March, wear light cottons, a headwear if outdoor, suitable sun cream for protection from harmful UVA radiation and plenty of hydration!

Get prepared for a hot month ahead!