Tuesday, 12 April 2016

IMD forecasts above average Monsoon rains for June - September 2016!

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has some good news for rain starved country in its first long range forecast for South West Monsoons for 2016, released today, April 12, 2016.

Summary of the ESSO-IMD’s Operational long range Forecast for the 2016 Southwest monsoon rainfall
(a) Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%

(b) The 5 category probability forecasts for the Seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is given below:

  Category.            Rainfall Range (% of LPA).        Forecast Probability (%)

   Deficient.                        <90                                           1
      
   Below Normal.             90 - 96                                        5
    
   Normal.                        96 -104                                     30
  
Above Normal.                104 -110                                   34
      
   Excess                            >110                                      30

IMD will come out with more detailed forecast in June.

You can download today’s IMD press release for more details by clicking on the link below

http://www.imd.gov.in/pages/download.php?ff=press_release/20160412_pr_22.pdf

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