India Meteorological Department (IMD) has some good news for rain starved country in its first long range forecast for South West Monsoons for 2016, released today, April 12, 2016.
Summary of the ESSO-IMD’s Operational long range Forecast for the 2016 Southwest monsoon rainfall
(a) Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%
(b) The 5 category probability forecasts for the Seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is given below:
Category. Rainfall Range (% of LPA). Forecast Probability (%)
Deficient. <90 1
Below Normal. 90 - 96 5
Normal. 96 -104 30
Above Normal. 104 -110 34
Excess >110 30
IMD will come out with more detailed forecast in June.
You can download today’s IMD press release for more details by clicking on the link below