Wednesday 3 June 2015

Monsoon 2015 Arrival Dates for Goa

After the overnight thunderstorms in parts of Goa on the intervening nights of May 31 - June 1, conditions have largely remained Suny and Hot in Goa, with only traces of rains in some parts.

With pre monsoon rains not yet started, Goa is set to miss its normal Monsoon arrival dates of June 6 or 7.

Instead, both IMD and Vagaries of Weather Blog now expect Monsoon to arrive in Goa on June 9.

The Directorate of Education, Government of Goa in a rare move, has postponed the opening of schools for the new academic year to June 8 from June 4, on account of the inconvenience to the students and teachers from heat and humidity.

As of June 3, SW Monsoon has already missed its normal date of June 1 for onset over Kerala and is now expected to reach there on June 4. It normally takes 5 days for the Monsoon to travel from Kerala to Goa.

The normal and actual position of arrival of Monsoon on June 3, 2015; as per IMD and Vagaries of Weather is as below:

Vagaries of Weather SW Monsoon Progress Map June 2, 2015

IMD SW Monsoon Progress Map June 3, 2015
The delay in onset of monsoon over Kerala and west coast of India, including Goa, is not being helped by the winds of the Arabian Sea  Branch, still not getting organised in SW direction, as seen in the 850 hPa wind Chart below:



As mentioned in this post of Vagaries of Weather:

"The latest chart of sea level pressure shows a Low (AS-1) forming in the South Arabain Sea.
The off shore trough, likely to form off Karnataka-Kerala coast by 3rd June, will embed the Low. AS-1 will show as a Low off the Karnataka coast by 4th, and will pull up the South West Monsoon into Kerala. As-1 will, as mentioned deepen to a Well Marked Low and fizzle out by 6th/7th June in the Sea.........Rains increasing in Goa from 5th...and Monsoon setting in around 9th."


We shall see in the next post what IMD and Vagaries of Weather have to say about the quantum of the seasonal rains this year for India and for the Western Region.