Cool mornings and nights and plenty of sunshine during the day! Updated December 23, 2015

Finally, mornings have started to become cool and pleasant in Goa!

At 20.5C , the morning of December 23 was the coolest Goa has seen in December so far. 

The minimum temperatures have been steadily dropping since December 19. Day's high continues to remain around 33C. Plenty of sunshine during the day and a slight nip in the air late in the night and early mornings, for the coming days!

Race Day Weather for Goa River Marathon 2015 - Posted December 12, 2015

The very popular Goa River Marathon is scheduled to be held on December 13, 2015.

The hot and humid weather prevalent in Goa during the week, as reported in this post, has caused lot consternation for runners in Goa training to run for their half marathons or full marathons. Higher temperatures and humidity mean lower paces and lower finishing timings.

But some good news on the weather front at last, and just in time for the big event!

After the hazy conditions throughout the day on Friday December 11, the skies cleared overnight and have remained free of haze and clouds throughout the day on December 12.

Clear sky conditions are expected to persist on the morning of the Race Day on December 13!

Clear skies lower the temperatures in the morning!

December 11 saw morning temperatures zoom to a minimum of 25C nearly 4C above normal, but as a result of the clear skies on December 12, the minimum temperature came down to 23C, but with RH 95%, giving a heat index of 24C.

December 11 and 12 also saw winds blowing from the Arabian Sea from the West start setting in as early as 10 am, compared to around 3.30 pm in earlier days. This helped to bring down the day maximum temperatures significantly, from highs of around 34 - 35C to 31- 32C.

This trend in minimum and maximum temperatures will continue on the race day ie December 13!

We can expect minimum temperature of around 22C at the start of the Full Marathon at 5 am! But the humidity would continue to be in late 80s %RH!

Happy Running everyone!

A Hot December reminds of Summer - No respite from heat!

The trend of warm days from November, highlighted in this post, has continued in December as expected and December 2015 is poised to be one of the hottest months of recent times, if cool winds from the North and West are delayed.

Except for the first three days, the maximum day temperature has remained above 35C, touching a maximum of 35.8C on December 6, the same day the minimum temperature recorded 21.3C early morning, the lowest recorded so far this month.

The NEM has remained active over south of southern Peninsula, and the winds following the lows from Bay of Bengal continue to blow from East to West.

In Goa, these easterlies are preventing the setting in of winds from the Sea blowing from the west, till about 3.30 pm! And it is due to this that the day highs are above 35C!

According to this report in The Times of India, quoting IMD sources, this will not be the first time high temperatures in December, have been experienced in Goa.

To quote from that report - "December, 2008, was the hottest month of that year. The average temperature of 34.7 degrees Celsius was .4 degrees Celsius higher than during May, 2008. It was also the second hottest month in 38 years, the hottest being November 2004, when the average monthly maximum temperature recorded was 35.7 degrees Celsius."

While this December we have not yet reached 35.7C till December 9, the indications are that hazy conditions and east blowing winds will extend at least till the next week.

So if you are visiting Goa this December, pack in light cottons and your beach-wear!

A Hot November 2015 for Goa

November 2015 in Goa felt more like the month of March and April.

Normally November heralds chilly mornings, fog and dew. The days continue to be warm, but afford a break from the usual October heat.

However November 2015 was warmer than November 2014, with average Low more than 2C higher and Average High continuing to be higher than normal.

Based on Observations at IMD, Panaji - Goa

This was mainly attributed to the string of Lows from Bay of Bengal, blowing west across the southern peninsula. This resulted in more overcast conditions in the early mornings and during the days.

The East blowing wind, prevented the cool north winds as also the west winds from the sea from setting in, raising the average temperature.

The daily temperature trend is as below. Maximum temperature recorded during the month was 35.7C and the minimum 21.0C

 The trend is expected into early part of December.

November cool winds taking a break - posted November 20, 2015

Morning of November 20, 2015 saw minimum temperature in Goa climb to 26.2C which is more than 4C above normal.

Skies were heavily overcast on November 19 and 20, under the influence of the low BB - 11, crossing over from Bay of Bengal. Day's highs are in the range of 34 - 35C.

Under the influence of the low, easterlies are blowing over Goa, preventing the cooler sea breeze from west from setting in.

Similarly while Mumbai, Pune and North Konkan reported minimum temperatures below 20C last few days, the cool winds from North have not yet reached Goa.

Light isolated rainfall has been reported in a few areas in Goa, not exceeding 2- 3 mm.

Not much variation is expected in the temperature pattern over next few days, with day highs in the range of 33 - 35C and low around 24C.

October 2015 Hotter than October 2014 by nearly 1C

Comparison of Average Monthly Temperature data at Panjim - Goa, as recorded by IMD, Goa, for the month of October 2014 and 2015, clearly indicates that during 2015, both the Average Day High Temperature and the Average Night Low Temperature, were higher than that in October 2014 by nearly 1C.

October 2015 has been generally recorded as hotter than usual almost everywhere in the sub-continent.

While July 2015 was officially nominated by NOAA as the hottest month of the year on a global level, climatologists and scientists have been saying that temperatures in 2015 are on track to be hotter by 1C. Click on this link to go to the website of CBC News, Canada, with the same headline.

So far in November 2015, the day and night temperatures have remained remarkably higher than average by nearly 2C except on Nov 10 and 11, when the effect of a low brought down the lows to the normal level of around 22C.

A comparison of Average Monthly Highs and Lows from October 2014 to September 2015 is given in the chart below:

Cool winds from East and North usually start blowing over Goa by mid November, thus making the mornings pleasant.

This development is now eagerly looked forward to!

S W Monsoon Withdraws from Goa - Posted October 15, 2015

The Indian Meteorological Department today announced that the S W Monsoon has withdrawn from Goa.

Goa has not been getting significant rains over last few days.

October 15 morning experienced one of the densest fogs of this year so far, leading to diversion of Flights to Hyderabad and other airports.

However non seasonal rains, accompanied by thunder and lightening, since October 1 till date have been significant, particularly in the interior areas of Goa.

October 15 also witnessed the hottest day so far in October this year. At 33.8C, nearly 2C above normal, the trend is of increasing day temperatures.

Detailed S W Monsoon 2015 performance analysis can  be found by clicking on this link and 2015 SWM Charts and Graphs, including the rains in Google Map by clicking on this link .

You can also keep track of the daily temperature trend in Goa at this link

For next few days expect the mid day high temperatures to be in the hot range of 32 - 34C, with clear skies and plenty of sunshine. Mornings will feel cooler with temperatures in the range of 23 - 25C, interior areas of Goa being cooler than coastal areas. Rainfall will be scattered and isolated and mostly in the evenings or late afternoon, if at all.

Monsoons September 2015 - Normal for the month - but - Deficient ending for the Season!

September 30, 2015 marks the official end of the South West Monsoon Season for 2015.

Though monsoon has withdrawn from most of India North of Vindhyas, it is expected to linger in Goa for a few more weeks in October.

Even then, September end is the right time to look at the performance of the SW Monsoon in Goa for 2015.

Fig 1a

Fig 1b

Fig 1c: Source - http://www.imdgoa.gov.in

During September 2015, Goa received normal rainfall. Area weighted average rainfall rainfall of 293 mm was recorded against normal of 280 mm (+5%). However due to deficient rains in June, July and August, the cummulative rainfall recorded was just 2389 mm (94 inches), against normal 2972 mm (117 inches). This resulted in deficiency of -20% for the seasonal.

As per IMD norms, for seasonal rainfall at regional level, rainfall between -20% to -59% is classified as deficient.

However though September yielded +5% rainfall, there were just 9 days out of 30 days in September with rainfall more than 3 mm, as recorded by Vagaries Goa Rain Gauge at Aquem, Margao.

Fig 2

Canacona recorded the highest rainfall during September and Dabolim the lowest.

Fig 3a

Fig 3b

September 2015 rains were also lower than September 2014 rains.

Fig 4

As expected the foothills of Western Ghats received the highest rainfall during the season. However what was unexpected was Sanguem, in South Goa with 3079 mm (121 inches), outperforming Valpoi , the usual topper, at just 2741 mm (108 inches). Surprisingly too Pernem in North Goa, which usually receives good seasonal rainfall, received poor rainfall with just 1865 mm (73 inches).

Fig 5a

And in Google Earth with seasonal rainfall in mm:

Fig 5b

The month-wise rainfall chart shows that while Sanguem received good rainfall every month, Valpoi received poor rains in September.

Fig 6

Comparing the seasonal rainfall at all the rain centers in Goa over last three years, dramatically illustrates the poor performance of the monsoons in Goa this year, as against 2013 and 2014.

Fig 7

The performance of the SW monsoons is in the deficient category on all India level too as per this map from IMD:

Fig 8

While IMD can take comfort from the fact that it had predicted the seasonal rainfall during 2015 to be +/- 88% of LPA with error of +/- 4%, in its Long Range Forecast update issued on June 2, 2015, the performance of the monsoons on the West Coast of India is one of the worst in recent times.

Meteorologists are attributing the deficient rains during SW Monsoons this year to the strong El Nino phenomenon that continues even as the SW monsoon season ends in India. We are going to hear a lot about the effect of El Nino in coming days, on the Monsoons in India this year.

The break in Monsoon in September saw significant rise in temperatures in the second half of September, as recorded at Panjim by IMD:

Fig 9a

The highest day temperature of 34.8C and highest night temperature of 26.2C were both recorded on the last day of the month i.e. September 30

Fig 9b

While comparison of SWM 2015 with other failed monsoon years like 2002, 2009, 2012 is inevitable, What stands out is the failure of the Arabian Sea branch of the monsoons in 2015, leading to deficient monsoon all along the west coast. The saving grace for SWM this year has been undoubtedly The Bay of Bengal Branch, bringing good rains to the east coast and to central India too!

The analysis of SWM 2015 will continue for a long time to come. Keep an eye on this blog for regular updates!

Day Temperatures Touching record highs for the month! - Posted September 25, 2015

With no rains past few days day and night temperatures have been scaling new highs for this time of the month.

On September 24, 33C was the maximum day temperature recorded at Panaji. This is 2C above normal.

The minimum temperature is also nearing 25C, again around 2C above normal.

With no chance of rains for next few days, the heat index would be high in Goa and necessary precautions should be taken for outdoor activities.

Warm, Sunny Days ahead for this week - Posted September 23, 2015

With the low BB6 which originated in Bay of Bengal and then crossed overland into Gujarat, now merged with the seasonal low, the system which brought lot of rains to Central and Western parts of India is dead and Goa has ceased to benefit any more from the system.

As a result from September 20th, Goa has been experiencing light to nil rains.

Warm and sunny weather is expected to remain, at least till this weekend.

Day temperatures are nearing 32C, nearly 1-2 C above normal. Minimum temperature hovers above 24C.

The seasonal deficit continues to be -18%, with average area weighted rainfall so far from June 1 at 94 inches as against the normal of 114 inches. Seasonal rainfall in the range -19% to +19%  is considered "Normal" Monsoon! So we can now say that Goa has so far received normal monsoon rains!

Valpoi is losing the "wettest Place in Goa" title to Sanguem this year. But what is also very surprising is the poor rainfall in Pernem area.

More analysis September month - end!

Rainy Ganesh Chaturthi in Goa, Rains expected to decrease from Saturday 19th - Posted September 18, 2015

South Goa was lashed by heavy rainfall on the night of September 17 - 18.

In 24 hrs till 0830 hrs on Friday September 18, Vagaries Goa had recorded 110 mm and IMD Centres at Margao (73.1 mm), Sanguem (97.7 mm), Quepem (73.8 mm) and Mormugao (62 mm).

The medium to heavy rains in the last three days helped bring down the seasonal deficit for Goa to -18%.

 Source: http://www.imdgoa.gov.in

These rains were due to the revival of monsoon trough off the west coast of India under the influence of the deep depression BB6, as it moved from Bay of Bengal westwards.

As BB6 has taken a northward course over land, and is now approaching Gujarat, rains along the the west coast will shift towards North Konkan, Mumbai and Gujarat from Friday itself.

Source: http://www.vagaries.in

However meteologists are closely monitoring the possibility of another system developing in Bay of Bengal around 23 - 25th September, which could bring rainfall to the southern peninsula, similar to BB6.

Till than expect light rains in Goa.

Low in Bay of Bengal brings rain for Ganesh Chaturthi!

As mentioned in the last post, the Low BB6, formed in the North Bay of Bengal and by September 15, was crossing the coast near Odisha/ A. P. Under its influence the Monsoon trough off the west Coast of India has revived, bringing good rains all along the coast. Thunderstorm activity is also seen at many places in the country.

Goa has been receiving moderate to heavy rains at most places since last three days. Vagaries Goa has recorded 91 mm rainfall in three days since September 12, bringing the total rainfall received in the first half of September to 109 mm, far below the normal. As can be seen in the graph below, only 5 days in the last 15 days have received rains more than 2 mm.

The Seasonal deficiency for Goa continues to be at -23% below normal. Goa has received area weighted average rainfall till September 15, of nearly 87 inches, compared to a normal of 112 inches, this time of the year.

Source: http://www.imdgoa.gov.in

The rainfall recorded at the various rain gauge centres in Goa during the first 15 days of September is as follows:

So, the rainfall of 4-5 days in September so far has been of hits and misses, with some areas receiving more than others.

Sanguem and Valpoi have crossed the century mark in inches and Ponda and Sanquelim are close behind, in the seasonal tally.

As mentioned in this post in the blog Vagaries of the Weather, the low BB6 is expected to cross and emerge as a low in the Arabian Sea around September 18/ 19, keeping the trough active, with rains in Konkan, Gujarat and Goa.

Happy Ganesh festival to you all!

Low Forming In Bay of Bengal around 11-12th September could bring rain to Goa next week - Posted September 10, 2015

After a big lull in SW Monsoon rains in 1st week of September, Goa received some activity on 8th, 9th and 10th. Though this was mainly 'hits and misses' rains, with some areas like Mapusa, Sanguem, Sanquelim receiving heavy rains on a given day, and some centres receiving NIL rains! For daily rainfall figures checkout this page.

From weighted average rainfall for Goa of 2 mm on 8th to 20 mm on 9th and 12 mm on 10th, the overcast conditions brought down the day max temperatures from 32.1C to 29.8C and minimum temperature from 25.5C to 23.3C.

But the seasonal deficiency continues to be more than 24% below normal.

Source: http://imdgoa.gov.in

However as detailed in the weather blog Vagaries of The Weather, a low is expected to form in Bay of Bengal around 11th - 12th. Named as BB6, the Low is expected to track West towards M.P. due to strong resistance in the North. This movement of the Low is expected to bring good rains to Maharashtra and Konkan including Goa next week.

The SW Monsoon has withdrawn from Pakistan, Rajasthan and parts of Punjab and Harayana. But the formation and movement of BB6 will slow the withdrawal south of M.P. for the time being. This is definately a good news to west coast and parts of South Peninsula, which have received deficient rains so far this season.

August 2015 - Monsoon Performance, continuing to be below normal!

The South West Monsoon in 2015 is turning out to be a deficient rainfall year in Goa, in line with the deficient rainfall witnessed in the rest of the country.

As against normal area weighted average rainfall for the State of Goa  of 682 mm in August, only 515 mm rainfall was recorded, which is 24% below normal. Overall in 2015 SWM season from June 1 till August 31, the rainfall was 22% below normal. This monthly deficiency trend is seen in every month this year.

With El Nino getting stronger and failure of the Arabian Sea branch of the SW Monsoon this year, Goa received just about 50% of the rains recorded in  the month of August 2014.

 During August 2015 there were just 2 days without rainfall, but only 8 days with above normal rainfall. The rainfall was substantially below normal rest of the days.

Places in the interiors of Goa, at the base of the western Ghats, like Valpoi, Sanguem, Sakhali etc have performed poorly in 2015, compared to earlier years, leading to the overall -22% overall rain deficiency this year.

Sanguem is the seasonal topper so far this year, being the only place in Goa to have received more than 100 inches of rainfall till August 31. It is closely followed by Valpoi, Ponda, Old Goa, Quepem and Sakhali.

The rainfall recorded at various centres in Goa month wise till August 31 is as per the chart below:

While the Selaulim Dam, with largest water holding capacity, located near Sanguem, was reported to be over flowing, other major water reservoirs including the Anjunem Dam in North Goa, were still below the maximum level.

The daily rainfall chart of Vagaries Goa at Aquem, Margao indicates the pattern of rain in August this year.

The overall monsoon performance for India indicates a deficiency of 11% till August 31, 2015.

The failure of the monsoons throughout the west coast and in the Gangetic Plains is very telling.

Outlook for the rest of the season ending September 30th is not very encouraging. There are indications that the withdrawal of the SW Monsoon may be very imminent, if it hasn't already started from Pakistan and NW India. Click on this link, to understand the withdrawal parameters, as explained in the blog Vagaries of the Weather.

For daily updates on the rainfall all over Goa visit http://weatheringoa.blogspot.in/p/swm-2015-goa-graphs-and-charts.html