Thursday, 5 September 2013

Prospect of rains during Ganesh Chaturthi

Ganesh Chaturthi, one of the most popular festivals in Goa and Konkan begins on September 8 and ends on 10th for the majority. People travel long distances to visit their ancestral homes and villages to be with their families, and rain can only play a spoil sport if it makes an appearance.

So far, every day of September has reported Nil rainfall for almost all parts of Goa this year.

However there are synoptic indications that this longest dry spell during this year's monsoon, is about to be broken and the rain may just decide to make its presence felt on September 8 and 9!

An upper air circulation would form over west central Bay of Bengal on September 7, according to IMD forecast and this would subsequently develop into a low pressure area.

It is expected that the off coast troughs along TN coast and corresponding trough along Goa - Kerala coast would remain active and bring rains to these regions.

The rains in Goa could be in the range 10-15 mm, with higher precipitation in the mornings and towards interior Goa.

The Meteogram for Goa COLA/IGES as on date shows this as below:

The S W Monsoons normally start retreating from North west Rajasthan by September 1, though Goa and peninsular India continue to get the S W monsoon rains till around October 10.

The monsoon retreat from N W Rajasthan may have already started as the seasonal low in the N W has increased 1002 hPa from the lows of 994 / 996 hPa earlier in the season.

So, all indications as on date suggest that though it may be overcast with light rain on Ganesh Chaturthi days, it will not be heavy downpour and may be just what was ordered to bring down the rising temperature from around 31C to 29-30C levels!

Happy Ganesh Chaturthi festival to all!

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