Top 24 hrs rainfall figures in Goa from 25th to 29th September

Rainfall has been active over Goa in the week just ended.

The following are the daily maximum rains recorded in Goa in 24 hr period ending 8:30 am for each day from September 25 to 29:

Sept 25 - 20.2 mm at Pernem

Sept 26 - 52.8 mm at Canacona

Sept 27 - 75.4 mm at Canacona

Sept 28 - 12.6 mm at Dabolim

Sept 29 - 20.1 mm at Margao

These rains are typically 'hit or miss' rains!

Today September 30, Panaji recorded 16.9 mm in 9 hours from 8:30 am to 5:30 pm, and interior areas reached much heavier downpours.

The withdrawal of monsoon from NW India has halted and the meteorological circles are buzzing with excitement of witnessing the rare phenomenon of the monsoon re - appearing in the withdrawn areas!

It appears that monsoon will persist with various degrees of intensities till after The festival of Navratri!

Monsoon revival?

With the low over Gujarat stagnating and strengthening at higher altitudes as UAC, it has not only brought massive rains in Gajarat, but has activated the trough along the west coast from Saurashtra to Goa.

This has resulted in clouding in skies over Goa and west blowing winds bringing in rains since yesterday ( 25th) evening, putting rest to our 'hopes' of good weather for the weekend!

The weather prospects in Goa over the next two days depends on the development of the low over Gujarat. Till it fizzles out, it will continue to pull moisture from the Arabian Sea as well as keep the west coast trough activated.

At present this appears the most likely scenario.

Outlook for rest of the week

The phase of continuous daily rains seen from September 16 to 24, is definiitely over!

The low which is still persisting over Gujarat, brought plenty of rains to north Konkan, but Goa was largely spared.

The rains recorded at Margao during last week were:

Sept 16 - 3.1 mm

Sept 17 - 30 mm

Sept 18 - 92.7 mm

Sept 19 - 10.5 mm

Sept 20 - 85.6 mm

Sept 21 - 86.8 mm

Sept 22 - 9 mm

Sept 23 - 12.4 mm

Sept 24 - 20.5 mm

Expect clear blue skies and lot of sunshine during day time rest of the week.

Max day temp could reach 30/31C and early mornings at 23/24C. Humidity would remain in 80-90% range. Occasion mild drizzle should bring relief. Rains could be less than 5 mm per day, mostly towards the interiors.

A perfect time to savor the natural beauty of Goa!

Rains linger on Sunday September 22

With a low over central India and another in east Gujarat stalled for the moment, the trough on the west coast has become strong again, bringing rain all along the west coast of India.

What this means for Goa is that he rains which were scant on Saturday will pick up again on Sunday.

The winds wil be blowing from the west bringing rains all along the west coast as forecast in models above.

The rains are expected to ease by Sunday night.

Heavy Rains as forecast - Expected to ease over the weekend

Heavy rains lashed all parts of Goa from evening of September 19 to morning of September 20, as expected. The rainfall recorded during 24 hrs till 08:30 hrs on Friday morning was as under:

1. Margao - 86 mm

2. Panaji - 54 mm

3. Valpoi - 48 mm

Most of this rain was recorded in the 10 hours between 9:30 pm on 19th to 7:30 am on 20th.

The rains are expected to ease after Friday over the weekend.

For those interested in numbers, the total rainfall recorded from June 1 till September 20 at rain stations across Goa is as below:

 

While Valpoi is nearing 200 inches, Panaji has just crossed 100 inches! Margao is nearly 125 inches, though Dabolim and Murmagao are stiil to reach the century mark.

 

 

Margao had 10 'dry' days in September so far. Just 5 days of significant rains as can be seen from the chart below:

 

 

 

Are we seeing the last gasp of a retreating monsoon? Well, while monsson retreat has started from NW India, normally the retreat from Goa is after October 1.

 

But looking at the dim prospects of significant rains in the balance part of September, we may indeed be seeing the last leg of the monsoon this year!



 

Heavy Rain Alert!

Due to persisting strong monsoon trough off the west coast, heavy rains are predicted for Goa and South Konkan by various weather models from September 19 to 21. Rains could be heavier towards the ghats.

Also check out this post by Rajesh Kapadia in his blog 'vagaries of the weather' http://rajesh26.blogspot.in/2013/09/posted-on-monday16th-night-monsoon-axis.html

A wet week ahead?

The latest data put out by IMD for the week September 5 - 11, 2013 indicates deficient rains in Goa and Konkan.

However this scenario is expected to change for the week beginning September 16, as the trough off the west coast has become active again.

The skies will remain overcast and rains will be light and intermittent.

A low pressure area may develop off Goa coast according to some models.

This situation is expected to bring more rains mid week.

However, we will have to wait and see, if these rains are enough to keep the total seasonal rains in the normal range, or inspite of the heavy rains of July we are destined to end the monsoon season with slightly deficient rains!

Update September 11, 2013 - Thunderstorms?

As this post is being written, sounds of distant thunder can be heard. The skies are heavily overcast here in Margao since last two days, but very little rainfall. However some other parts of Goa have recorded higher rainfall:

Rainfall in Goa in 24 Hrs ending 08:30 hrs on September 11, 2013:

S.No.	Rainguage Station	24 Hrs Rainfall (mm)	Seasonal Total (mm) w.e.f  01st June
1	Mapusa	002.8	2597.8
2	Pernem	008.2	3041.6
3	Ponda	004.1	3297.9
4	Panaji	000.2	2462.3
5	Ela (Old Goa)	000.0	2901.9
6	Sankhali	002.2	3484.4
7	Valpoi	Trace	4588.0
8	Canacona	080.8	2695.4
9	Dabolim	024.0	2378.4
10	Margao	005.4	2943.1
11	Mormugao	048.2	2343.1
12	Quepem	002.2	2887.7
13	Sanguem	006.0	3783.3

The UAC from east which was expected to enter Arabian Sea through Goa, took a northward route and entered the Arabian Sea through south Konkan, thus sparing / depriving -depending on how you look at it!- Goa of heavy rains! Only Canacona, and areas around Vasco da Gama received heavy rainfall, as seen in the table above.

Panaji is still 3 inches short of reaching the century mark, while Margao has received 116 inches and Valpoi 181 inches.


The second half of September is expected to be wetter than the first half, as the trough on the west coast has become active again.

In the meantime, whenever skies clear Cumulus, Stratus, Altocumulus and Cirrus clouds put on a fantastic array of figures and colourful displays, so typical of September skies in Goa.

Dr Nandkumat Kamat, the noted scientist, sends in a particular formation of Altocumulus clouds, with which his 7 year old son Nachiketas, was so taken up, that he named it as 'Devachim Botam' - God's Fingers.

 

 

The CloudSpotter's Guide by Gavin Pretor-Pinney, the founder of the Cloud Appreciation Society, classifies these types of clouds as the 'mamma' cloud formation, named after Latin for 'Breasts', which appear on the underside of different cloud types and often look like a field of udders!

 

More than half of September is still to come, who knows what you'll be able to see in the skies?!

 





Update September 9: rains delayed?

A sudden formation of an UAC over west Gujarat on September 8, has stalled the westward movement of the UAC near AP coast and consequently heavy rains expected in Goa from September 8 night may be delayed by two days. The rains may skip Goa all together moving into Konkan region if the UAC moves in NW direction instead of W.

This analysis is by the weather blogger Rajesh Kapadia in his latest post in his blog 'vagaries of weather' here

The map prepared by him and available in the post is reproduced below:

Copyright: Rajesh Kapadia 'vagaries of weather'

While the absence of rain will be welcome Ganesh devotees,

 it would extend the present break in monsoon a few more days.

Updates will follow if situation changes

The Rains arrive for Ganesh Chaturthi - as predicted!

As predicted, the rains reached the shores of Goa, albeit a day in advance!

After Nil or trace rains from September 1 to 6, most parts of Goa experienced heavy to moderate rains since early morning of 7th. Though the rains are expected to ease off during the day on 7th,Goa is forecast to receive heavy to moderate rains from 8th evening to 10th.

As pointed out by blogger Rajesh Kapadia in his blog Vagaries of the weather the trough off the west coast of India from Goa to Kerala has become active due to emergence 
of a low off the coast of TN. This low is expected to move west across interior Karnataka and into Arabian 
Sea off Goa by 9th or 10th. Thus bringing heavy to moderate rains to Goa.

The EUMETSAT image as at 6:30 am on September 7 is as below, clearly showing the activity off west coast.

Prospect of rains during Ganesh Chaturthi

Ganesh Chaturthi, one of the most popular festivals in Goa and Konkan begins on September 8 and ends on 10th for the majority. People travel long distances to visit their ancestral homes and villages to be with their families, and rain can only play a spoil sport if it makes an appearance.

So far, every day of September has reported Nil rainfall for almost all parts of Goa this year.

However there are synoptic indications that this longest dry spell during this year's monsoon, is about to be broken and the rain may just decide to make its presence felt on September 8 and 9!

An upper air circulation would form over west central Bay of Bengal on September 7, according to IMD forecast and this would subsequently develop into a low pressure area.

It is expected that the off coast troughs along TN coast and corresponding trough along Goa - Kerala coast would remain active and bring rains to these regions.

The rains in Goa could be in the range 10-15 mm, with higher precipitation in the mornings and towards interior Goa.

The Meteogram for Goa COLA/IGES as on date shows this as below:

The S W Monsoons normally start retreating from North west Rajasthan by September 1, though Goa and peninsular India continue to get the S W monsoon rains till around October 10.

The monsoon retreat from N W Rajasthan may have already started as the seasonal low in the N W has increased 1002 hPa from the lows of 994 / 996 hPa earlier in the season.

So, all indications as on date suggest that though it may be overcast with light rain on Ganesh Chaturthi days, it will not be heavy downpour and may be just what was ordered to bring down the rising temperature from around 31C to 29-30C levels!

Happy Ganesh Chaturthi festival to all!

Come September!

The noted Goan scientist, thinker and popular science writer Dr Nandkumar Kamat, has written a great piece on the beautiful facets of nature in the month of September and it has been published by the local daily Navhind Times today on its Opinion Page. Titled as "Experiencing the Magic of September" its available on the net here !

 Any Goan worth his salt will agree totally with Dr Kamat, that with September comes the beautiful sunsets, occasional rainbows, high cirrus clouds against blue backgrounds and all this accompanied by rainy spells with large rain drops and sometimes the fog!

Sunset at Benaulim Beach on September 2, 2013

And the one food item loved by all the Goans starts to arrive in large number in the fish market, with the ban on fishing having ended and the seas calm again for the fishing boats to cast their nets.

Then there is one the most loved of all deities, Lord Ganesha, making his annual appearance in the festival of Chavath. This is a perfect occasion for family members from near and far to gather together and talk of the rains gone by and much more!

With the break in the monsoon continuing into the first week of September, now is the time to step out and experience as Dr Kamat so eloquently puts it "nature's free outdoor photography exhibition"!

Goa August Rainfall Analysis - Deficient Rains!

After witnessing record rainfall in July, the tide turned 180 degrees in August! The rains were mostly sparse and sunshine was in plentiful supply.

According to the IMD during the month, till 8.30 am on August 2013, Panaji had recorded only 14.19 inches of rainfall, against a normal rainfall of 21.10 inches, a deviation of nearly 35%! In August 2012, Panaji had recorded nearly 26 inches. Thus rainfall in August in Panaji, where IMD maintains historical records, is deficient by nearly 45% over last year!

But inspite of this deficiency, the seasonal rainfall continues to remain above normal, albeit by a small margin, mostly due to the excess rains in July.

The same is true across Goa, with interior areas receiving higher rains than coastal areas.

Valpoi at the base of the western Ghats again topped with 37.31 inches recorded during the month bringing the seasonal total to a whopping 179.91 inches! The top 5 centers continued to be the same as in July, as follows with their seasonal totals:

1. Valpoi - 179.91 inches
2. Sanguem - 147.76 inches
3. Sankhali - 135.35 inches
4. Ponda - 129.12 inches
5. Pernem - 118.96 inches

In fact of the 13 centers across Goa, 10 centres have recorded seasonal rains above 100 inches and only Panaji, Dabolim and Mormugao are still below the century mark!

Perhaps IMD has to seriously think of a new definition for average rainfall for Goa, considering that rains recorded at Panaji do not give the true picture of the rains over Goa!

As usual, Margao gets a special mention here. The daily rainfall recorded at Margao in August 2013 was as under:

There were nearly 18 days in August where Margao received 10 mm or less rains. The wettest day was on 18th with nearly 3.5 inches of rains in 24 hrs.

The Max day Temp: 31C on August 30

The Min day Temp: 26.3C on August 17

The Max night Temp: 24.9C on August 15

The Min night Temp: 22.6C on August 24

Average Day Temperature in August: 29.82C

Average Night Temperature in August: 23.69C