The Rains arrive for Ganesh Chaturthi - as predicted!

As predicted, the rains reached the shores of Goa, albeit a day in advance!

After Nil or trace rains from September 1 to 6, most parts of Goa experienced heavy to moderate rains since early morning of 7th. Though the rains are expected to ease off during the day on 7th,Goa is forecast to receive heavy to moderate rains from 8th evening to 10th.

As pointed out by blogger Rajesh Kapadia in his blog Vagaries of the weather the trough off the west coast of India from Goa to Kerala has become active due to emergence 
of a low off the coast of TN. This low is expected to move west across interior Karnataka and into Arabian 
Sea off Goa by 9th or 10th. Thus bringing heavy to moderate rains to Goa.

The EUMETSAT image as at 6:30 am on September 7 is as below, clearly showing the activity off west coast.

Prospect of rains during Ganesh Chaturthi

Ganesh Chaturthi, one of the most popular festivals in Goa and Konkan begins on September 8 and ends on 10th for the majority. People travel long distances to visit their ancestral homes and villages to be with their families, and rain can only play a spoil sport if it makes an appearance.

So far, every day of September has reported Nil rainfall for almost all parts of Goa this year.

However there are synoptic indications that this longest dry spell during this year's monsoon, is about to be broken and the rain may just decide to make its presence felt on September 8 and 9!

An upper air circulation would form over west central Bay of Bengal on September 7, according to IMD forecast and this would subsequently develop into a low pressure area.

It is expected that the off coast troughs along TN coast and corresponding trough along Goa - Kerala coast would remain active and bring rains to these regions.

The rains in Goa could be in the range 10-15 mm, with higher precipitation in the mornings and towards interior Goa.

The Meteogram for Goa COLA/IGES as on date shows this as below:

The S W Monsoons normally start retreating from North west Rajasthan by September 1, though Goa and peninsular India continue to get the S W monsoon rains till around October 10.

The monsoon retreat from N W Rajasthan may have already started as the seasonal low in the N W has increased 1002 hPa from the lows of 994 / 996 hPa earlier in the season.

So, all indications as on date suggest that though it may be overcast with light rain on Ganesh Chaturthi days, it will not be heavy downpour and may be just what was ordered to bring down the rising temperature from around 31C to 29-30C levels!

Happy Ganesh Chaturthi festival to all!

Come September!

The noted Goan scientist, thinker and popular science writer Dr Nandkumar Kamat, has written a great piece on the beautiful facets of nature in the month of September and it has been published by the local daily Navhind Times today on its Opinion Page. Titled as "Experiencing the Magic of September" its available on the net here !

 Any Goan worth his salt will agree totally with Dr Kamat, that with September comes the beautiful sunsets, occasional rainbows, high cirrus clouds against blue backgrounds and all this accompanied by rainy spells with large rain drops and sometimes the fog!

Sunset at Benaulim Beach on September 2, 2013

And the one food item loved by all the Goans starts to arrive in large number in the fish market, with the ban on fishing having ended and the seas calm again for the fishing boats to cast their nets.

Then there is one the most loved of all deities, Lord Ganesha, making his annual appearance in the festival of Chavath. This is a perfect occasion for family members from near and far to gather together and talk of the rains gone by and much more!

With the break in the monsoon continuing into the first week of September, now is the time to step out and experience as Dr Kamat so eloquently puts it "nature's free outdoor photography exhibition"!

Goa August Rainfall Analysis - Deficient Rains!

After witnessing record rainfall in July, the tide turned 180 degrees in August! The rains were mostly sparse and sunshine was in plentiful supply.

According to the IMD during the month, till 8.30 am on August 2013, Panaji had recorded only 14.19 inches of rainfall, against a normal rainfall of 21.10 inches, a deviation of nearly 35%! In August 2012, Panaji had recorded nearly 26 inches. Thus rainfall in August in Panaji, where IMD maintains historical records, is deficient by nearly 45% over last year!

But inspite of this deficiency, the seasonal rainfall continues to remain above normal, albeit by a small margin, mostly due to the excess rains in July.

The same is true across Goa, with interior areas receiving higher rains than coastal areas.

Valpoi at the base of the western Ghats again topped with 37.31 inches recorded during the month bringing the seasonal total to a whopping 179.91 inches! The top 5 centers continued to be the same as in July, as follows with their seasonal totals:

1. Valpoi - 179.91 inches
2. Sanguem - 147.76 inches
3. Sankhali - 135.35 inches
4. Ponda - 129.12 inches
5. Pernem - 118.96 inches

In fact of the 13 centers across Goa, 10 centres have recorded seasonal rains above 100 inches and only Panaji, Dabolim and Mormugao are still below the century mark!

Perhaps IMD has to seriously think of a new definition for average rainfall for Goa, considering that rains recorded at Panaji do not give the true picture of the rains over Goa!

As usual, Margao gets a special mention here. The daily rainfall recorded at Margao in August 2013 was as under:

There were nearly 18 days in August where Margao received 10 mm or less rains. The wettest day was on 18th with nearly 3.5 inches of rains in 24 hrs.

The Max day Temp: 31C on August 30

The Min day Temp: 26.3C on August 17

The Max night Temp: 24.9C on August 15

The Min night Temp: 22.6C on August 24

Average Day Temperature in August: 29.82C

Average Night Temperature in August: 23.69C

Will Panaji (Goa) touch 100 inches by August end?

Panaji rainfall as on August 29 has reached 2445 mm, i.e. 95 mm short of 2540 mm i.e. 100 inches! 

So the big question is will Panaji receive around 4 inches of rains in the next two days for the headlines on September 1 to read in bold that the seasonal rainfall in Goa has crossed a century?

This seems highly unlikely given today's conditions.

The low from Bay has fizzled out around west MP. The west coast trough is very quiet. The rains are active generally in Eastern part of India.

Though Goa has been experiencing overcast conditions, it has rained only in traces last two-three days.

No change in outlook is expected, till at least August end.

Hence Panaji will continue to struggle to reach the century mark!

But watch out for Weather in Goa's month end analysis to check out the cities that have already reached the century mark!

Day temperatures will remain around 30C and night temperatures around 24C.

August 23 - What's in store for the coming week?

Last week, it rained everyday in Goa. Heavy rains on Saturday 17 and Sunday 18 tapered off slowly as the week progressed. It looked as if the rains were trying to compensate for the poor performance in the first half of the month. While it rained more in the interior, coastal Goa was also not far behind, as seen from the daily chart for Margao over the week gone by:

August by far has always been less wet than June and July and this year is no exception. The chart below for monthly rainfall till August 23, brings this out very clearly.

For Panaji, 21.10 inches of rains in August is considered normal. Thus till August 23, we have had only 60% of normal rains in August. However due to the super performance in July, the rains are still 6 inches above normal overall.

So what does the monsoon have in store for the coming week?

As seen in this EUMETSAT image on August 23, the weakened low has traveled to Gujarat- Rajasthan from the Bay of Bengal. It has pulled in the moisture from Arabian Sea too, resulting in rains over Sindh in Pakistan and coastal Gujarat. But over Goa and Konkan humidity is expected to fall over the next week.

Thus in absence of any activity of the monsoon trough along the west coast, rainfall is expected to further decrease in the coming week. Sky may remain overcast with a few intense showers, but rainfall along the coast should be between 10-20 mm in the first few days of the week, reducing further towards end of coming week. The interiors should receive a little higher rainfall.

Will update the blog, if there are any new developments.

The hopes of Panaji and consequently Goa (for IMD records purpose), reaching 100 inches mark before August end seems less likely!

Update Saturday 17, August - Present Rain Spell to continue till Monday?

It appears from the present conditions that the current spell of somewhat intense rain activity will continue at least till Monday August 19.

Late Friday 16th and Saturday 17th morning onwards most parts of Goa received moderate to heavy spells of rains under the influence of a vortex off the coast of Goa.

The low in the Bay of Bengal continued to influence the monsoon activity on the west coast from Kerala to Goa. Panaji received more than 1 inch of rain in 6 hours from 08:30 hrs on Saturday, with heavier rains towards the interior. Rains are expected to total between 2 inches to 3 inches in most areas in 24 hrs period ending Sunday.

The rains are expected to taper after Monday 19 th as the low in the Bay fizzles out. The coming week should again bring the sun out and the next weekend could be a lot better, weather-wise!