The official South West Monsoon season in India lasts from June 1 to September 30. The forecasts for this year's SWM were grim, what with the possibility of La Nina being predicted to bring poor rains to the country.
We are now one week into September and with just three weeks to go before this year's SWM season ends, its worthwhile taking a look back on the SWM 2014 performance so far.
Weather Blogger Rajesh Kapadia has done just that and his blog entry dated September 6, 2014 at www.vagaries.in is reproduced in full below after the graphics below.
The graphics indicate that a super duper spell in late August across the length and breadth of India has brought the deficiency down to just -12% as on September 6. Most of the country has received Normal rains, while J&K and S.I. Karnataka have received excess rains. Orange colour indicates deficient rains. There are no sub divisions with scanty rainfall records as on September 6, 2014! However the situation can change if the rains take a break for a few days in September!
Till September 5, NW India was the worst performer followed by East & North East and Central India. Punjab, Haryana, H.P. and Delhi NCR along with Marathwada remain the worry areas. However the excellent rains in Karnataka as a whole, has helped South Peninsula to show a deficiency of just -5%!
For Goa the situation is much better as on September 6, than what it looked like earlier. June '14 end the deficiency was -49%, July '14 end the deficiency was -17%, but by September 6, 2014, Goa had received +4% more than normal LPA, mostly due to the extremely heavy spell in the last week of August!
As the article by Rajesh Kapadia reproduced below indicates we may have a better year than 2009 after all!
SWM 2014 thus far. An brief Review....6th September - By Rajesh Kapadia (www.vagaries.in)
From a threatening -47% down to -12% today. The country has received 655 mms against a normal of 765 mms till date. Thats the overall All India Monsoon Position. Thanks to massive rains in Jammu Kashmir and Punjab last few days, the overall deficit has come to almost reasonable and "civilised" levels.In fact, a few more % points reduction and the dubious label of "drought" will be wiped out. IMD considers a drought year if the deficit falls below -10%. Seems likely to be covered this year.
India normally receives 890 mms in the 4 months of SWM season as a long term average.
Situation is far better than the worst year 2009. That year, the deficit at the end of the season was -23%.
But, still there are a few areas of concern. Punjab, UP and Marathwada amongst them. I would put it like this: the situation in these few regions is still far from being "drought free".Marathwada may see very good rains next few days from BB-8.
However, thinking positively, the late surge of rains in Punjab and Rajasthan and NW India, will benefit the rabi season immensely. It will be saturating the soil with sufficient soil moisture.
But, the water position may not be as comfortable. The overall water reservoir stocks is below normal,except in Central India. North ndia, which has seen the maximum shortage of adequate rainfall, sees the stock of reservoirs at 79% ( 93% last year) of full capacity. Eastern India stocks show 68% (75% last year) of full capacity. Western India 70% (76%) of capacity and South India 68% (81% last year. Central India is the lone zone seeing better than last year levels at 74% (58% last year).
The Overall country average is 71% ( 87%) of capacity against full level.
We are now one week into September and with just three weeks to go before this year's SWM season ends, its worthwhile taking a look back on the SWM 2014 performance so far.
Weather Blogger Rajesh Kapadia has done just that and his blog entry dated September 6, 2014 at www.vagaries.in is reproduced in full below after the graphics below.
The graphics indicate that a super duper spell in late August across the length and breadth of India has brought the deficiency down to just -12% as on September 6. Most of the country has received Normal rains, while J&K and S.I. Karnataka have received excess rains. Orange colour indicates deficient rains. There are no sub divisions with scanty rainfall records as on September 6, 2014! However the situation can change if the rains take a break for a few days in September!
Till September 5, NW India was the worst performer followed by East & North East and Central India. Punjab, Haryana, H.P. and Delhi NCR along with Marathwada remain the worry areas. However the excellent rains in Karnataka as a whole, has helped South Peninsula to show a deficiency of just -5%!
For Goa the situation is much better as on September 6, than what it looked like earlier. June '14 end the deficiency was -49%, July '14 end the deficiency was -17%, but by September 6, 2014, Goa had received +4% more than normal LPA, mostly due to the extremely heavy spell in the last week of August!
As the article by Rajesh Kapadia reproduced below indicates we may have a better year than 2009 after all!
SWM 2014 thus far. An brief Review....6th September - By Rajesh Kapadia (www.vagaries.in)
From a threatening -47% down to -12% today. The country has received 655 mms against a normal of 765 mms till date. Thats the overall All India Monsoon Position. Thanks to massive rains in Jammu Kashmir and Punjab last few days, the overall deficit has come to almost reasonable and "civilised" levels.In fact, a few more % points reduction and the dubious label of "drought" will be wiped out. IMD considers a drought year if the deficit falls below -10%. Seems likely to be covered this year.
India normally receives 890 mms in the 4 months of SWM season as a long term average.
Situation is far better than the worst year 2009. That year, the deficit at the end of the season was -23%.
But, still there are a few areas of concern. Punjab, UP and Marathwada amongst them. I would put it like this: the situation in these few regions is still far from being "drought free".Marathwada may see very good rains next few days from BB-8.
However, thinking positively, the late surge of rains in Punjab and Rajasthan and NW India, will benefit the rabi season immensely. It will be saturating the soil with sufficient soil moisture.
But, the water position may not be as comfortable. The overall water reservoir stocks is below normal,except in Central India. North ndia, which has seen the maximum shortage of adequate rainfall, sees the stock of reservoirs at 79% ( 93% last year) of full capacity. Eastern India stocks show 68% (75% last year) of full capacity. Western India 70% (76%) of capacity and South India 68% (81% last year. Central India is the lone zone seeing better than last year levels at 74% (58% last year).
The Overall country average is 71% ( 87%) of capacity against full level.
