IMD Long Range Forecast for SW Monsoon 2014

ESSO-India Meteorological Department (IMD) issues various monthly and seasonal operational forecasts for rainfall during the southwest monsoon season. Operational forecasts for the southwest monsoon season (June – September) rainfall are issued in two stages. The first stage forecast is issued in April and the second stage forecast is issued in June. 

Summary of the ESSO-IMD’s Operational long range Forecast for the 2014 Southwest monsoon rainfall  proposes that the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 95% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm.

The 5 category probability forecasts for the Seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is given below:

Category	Rainfall Range (% of LPA)	Forecast Probability (%)	Climatological Probability (%)
Deficient	< 90	23	16
Below Normal	90 - 96	33	17
Normal	96 -104	35	33
Above Normal	104 -110	8	16
Excess	> 110	1	17

The complete details of the IMD press release is here

 

Hot and Sultry in Goa - Update April 26, 2014

Parts of Goa witnessed light showers on the nights of April 24 and 25.

Across the western ghats rains upto 15 mm were recorded at Belgaum AP and also in the adjacent Dharward belt, under the influence of Line of Wind Discontinuity.

The week has been hot and humid in Goa with real feel max day temperatures in 40Cs and humidity around RH 80%, making for sultry days and nights.

The recorded day temperature max are howering around 35C and minimum night temperatures 2C above normal, touching 28C on April 25, breaking one more record.

The days will remain hot and hazy with no significant drop in humidity and a further gradual increase in day and night temperatures till April end.

This weather behavior is normal for April and May, leading to favorable conditions for onset of monsoon in June.

Warm, Humid weekend ahead

A low level circulation in Central India and the Line of Wind Discontinuity extending from South Madhya Pradesh to South Tamilnadu, brings rains along the LWD and to N- NW Karnataka Thursday and Friday.

This signals the end of clear days and nights being experienced in Goa since Sunday April 13. See this blog post

As a result the minimum temperatures are expected to rise again to 26C with humidity in the region of 75-80%. Maximum temperatures in the range 34-35C, with mid level cloud cover are expected.

The above INSAT image shows cloud cover for Goa at around 19:15 hrs on April and rains in Orrisa, along the LWD in south India and north and central India.

Mid April Cool Times

Goa has been experiencing a welcome drop in Minimum and Max temperatures since Sunday 13th continuing into the week. This is attributed to dry and cool winds blowing from north - northwest. The days and nights have been clear, contributing to a lower temperature regime.

April 13 - Min 21.8C ( 3C below normal) RH 66% at 8:30 am

             - Max 33.7C ( 1C above normal) RH 46% at 5:30 pm

April 14 - Min 22.5C . RH 65% at 8:30 am

            - Max 33.9C . RH 53% at 5:30 pm

Elsewhere, Pune was 14.7C and Mahabaleshwar 19.2C on Sunday April 13 morning.

On April 6, 2014, the minimum in Goa had reached 26.4C with RH 79% and max temp on that day had climbed to 34.6C.

With central and north west India beginning to heat up, temperatures in Goa could again climb to normal 25-35C region by the weekend.

El Niño CPC/NCEP predicts 50% chance for Summer/Fall of 2014

In its latest update of April 7, 2014, Climate Prediction Center / NCEP  (NOAA), has updated the status of ENSO to a probability of 50% for onset of El Niño in Summer or Fall in 2014.

This has ofcourse far reaching implications for the performance of the Monsoons in India and else where, going by past observations.

Storm and Hails in North east corner of Goa - April 4, 2014 - Update April 6

Update April 6 - Margao and surrounding areas got first drizzle of the year on the intervening night of April 5-6. The drizzle for about 30 minutes around midnight left puddles of water on the city roads, but failed to bring down the humidity or the temperature. Minimum temperature recorded by Panaji IMD on the morning of April 6 was 26.4C the highest minimum recorded this year, so far!

 

A localized, intense but highly destructive storm with hails lashed the north eastern corner of Goa for nearly an hour, affecting parts of Bicholim and Satari talukas and towns and villages like Sanquelim, Keri, Honda, Salelim, Harvalem, Thane etc, claiming one life, uprooting tens of trees, electricity poles, damaging houses, shops and road and telecommunications network. Power was disrupted for hours at many places. Industrial estates at Honda and Pissurlem.

The storm was the result of a cyclonic disturbance off the coast of Goa and a trough in North Interior Karnataka. The intense updraft created due to the mountains of Salelim and Vagheri on Goa - Karnataka border in the north east corner of Goa, along with a vertical wind shear and moisture laden winds blowing from the coast, could have contributed to the hailstorm experienced at Honda and Keri and the rains over a 20 km radius from the base of these mountains. The Chorla Ghat and the villages on the Karnataka side of the border must have suffered extensive damage too.

Reports indicated that hails were seen in this part of Goa after nearly 20 years!

The brief phenomenon was captured by EUMETSAT over 3 - 4 hours with yellow and blue at around 15.3N and 74E indicating the storm developing, peaking and dissipating:

Hails recorded at Honda, Satari measured upto 4 inches.

Coastal Goa was dry though overcast, and did not experience the storm.

Panaji recorded Max Temp of 34.7C, which was 2C above normal and Min Temp of 25.8C which was 1C above normal. Humidity was between 75 - 77%.