ESSO-India Meteorological Department (IMD) issues various monthly and
seasonal operational forecasts for rainfall during the southwest monsoon season. Operational forecasts for the southwest monsoon season
(June – September) rainfall are issued in two stages. The first stage forecast is issued
in April and the second stage forecast is issued in June.
Summary of the ESSO-IMD’s Operational long range Forecast for the 2014
Southwest monsoon rainfall proposes that the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 95% of the Long
Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over
the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm.
The complete details of the IMD press release is here
The 5 category probability forecasts for the Seasonal (June to September)
rainfall over the country as a whole is given below:
Category
|
Rainfall Range
(% of LPA)
|
Forecast
Probability (%)
|
Climatological
Probability (%)
|
Deficient
|
< 90
|
23
|
16
|
Below Normal
|
90 - 96
|
33
|
17
|
Normal
|
96 -104
|
35
|
33
|
Above Normal
|
104 -110
|
8
|
16
|
Excess
|
> 110
|
1
|
17
|
The complete details of the IMD press release is here
