Monday, 28 April 2014

IMD Long Range Forecast for SW Monsoon 2014

ESSO-India Meteorological Department (IMD) issues various monthly and seasonal operational forecasts for rainfall during the southwest monsoon season. Operational forecasts for the southwest monsoon season (June September) rainfall are issued in two stages. The first stage forecast is issued in April and the second stage forecast is issued in June. 


Summary of the ESSO-IMD’s Operational long range Forecast for the 2014 Southwest monsoon rainfall  proposes that the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 95% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm.


The 5 category probability forecasts for the Seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is given below:
Category
Rainfall Range (% of LPA)
page2image12408
Forecast Probability (%)
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Climatological Probability (%)
Deficient
< 90
23
16
Below Normal
90 - 96
page2image18112
33
page2image19272
17
Normal
96 -104
35
33
Above Normal
104 -110
page2image22660
8
page2image23508
16
Excess
> 110
page2image25664
1
page2image26876
17

The complete details of the IMD press release is here
 

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