Weather Prospects for New Year Holiday Season 2014!

Posted Saturday 27th Dec 2014

December 27 recorded minimum temperature of 18.5 C, the lowest recorded after December 6th! In between the minimum temperature went upto 24.3C mainly on account of the UAC in the Arabian Sea South west of Goa, and then hovered around 22-23C for a number of days before the present cool weather started to set in.

December 26 saw the maximum temperature come down to 30.6C from the usual 32-33C.

Thus the weather Goa is enjoying right now, is pleasant and it is expected to stay that way for some time.

As explained in detail in this post at the weather blog Vagaries of Weather, Jet Streams are expected to dip southwards towards Gujarat / Sindh and the Low BB15 in Bay of Bengal is expected to move N/NE away from the TN Coast.

Thus current pleasant nights and not so hot days are expected to continue for some more time.

So enjoy your Nights and Days in Goa! Season's Greetings and Happy New Year to all!!

Weather Prospects for Goa River Marathon 2014 - Less than ideal?

Update 2 Posted December 13, 2014)

Race Day December 14 at 6 am is expected to be cool at 20-21 C with humidity around 90% RH. Skies will be partly clouded but mostly clear. No rains are expected!

Update 1(Posted December 12, 2014, 9 pm):

Goa experienced heavy rains overnight on December 11, accompanied by thunder and lightening. The rains which commenced around 10.30 pm on Dec 11th continued till around 0730 hrs on Dec 12. Panjim recorded 32.3 mm, while Vagaries Goa rain Gauge at Margao recorded 52 mm during the same period.

This brought down the day's high on 12th to just 28.5C, 4C below normal. But the day's low still measured 22C with humidity of 95%RH at 0830 hrs.

Widespread rains are reported all over Goa at the time of this update, with Margao recording 5 mm till 2100 hrs on 12th.

The cloud cover is expected to decrease over Goa as per GFS models and concentrate south of Goa from December 13th evening onward.

If this indeed happens, the Race Day morning on December 14th could see some cool weather!

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The Goa River Marathon (GRM) 2014 is scheduled on December 14, 2014 at the port town of Vasco da Gama. Around 1400 participants are going to line up early in the morning at 0600 hrs for Half Marathon, 10K and 5K walk/ runs!

And the question that is uppermost on everyone's mind is if the weather going to be favourable to bring out the best from their months of training or if it's going to play a spoilsport with above normal temperature and high humidity on the race day and worse if it's going to rain!

The temperature trend over the last few days seems to indicate that things are not improving in terms of rising minimum temperatures early in the day and % humidity in 90s. Daily temperature variation at Panjim can be checked here and is reproduced below for December till 11th:

On December 11, 2014 the minimum temperature recorded at Panjim (IMD) was 24.3C with RH of 96%! This is +3 C above normal and a whopping +6 C recorded during traing runs on December 6! The minimum temperatures have been climbing steadily since December 6 and mornings have become warm and humid, with runners having to reduce their pace and resort to frequent hydration!
The record of highest minimum temperature at 25C recorded on December 20, 2007 is in danger of breaking.

A shower or two on race day in such conditions, is bound to upset the calculations of even the casual runners.

IMD Goa website forecasts generally cloudy skies with temperature range between 32 C - 22 C and possibility of rain.

However, GFS forecasting system indicates that things may not get worse from here, and in fact may improve a bit by December 14th morning.

The GFS based COLA/NCEP Meteogram for Goa indicates no rains throughout the week, but mid level clouds may persist till 15th. Humidity is predicted to remain around 90% in the early mornings and minimum temperatures between 20- 23C.

The current weather conditions are mostly a result of the trough of low at mean sea level over southwest Bay of Bengal off Sri Lanka and Tamilnadu coast and the trough in easterlies extending from Comorin area to southwest Madhya Pradesh across Coastal Karnataka

This has resulted in convective low and medium clouds over most of the peninsular India and rains in Kerala, adjoining TN, Coastal AP and parts of Karnataka.

 

 

Visit this page again on Saturday December 13 for an update on the forecast for the race day.


 

Hot Days, Cool Nights in Goa in November 2014 - Compared to October 2014

November 2014 turned out to be a topsy-turvy month for Goa, weather wise!

Rainfall measuring 12.6 mm was recorded in Margao in 24 hrs from 0830 hrs on Nov 14 to 0830 hrs on Nov 15. This brought down the day temperatures suddenly to 29.8C from the usual 34 C!

The Daily Temperature Chart indicates the temperature trend for November.

The salient features were as follows:

Thus the days in the second half of November were hotter than the days in the first half of the month, but the nights turned cooler in the second half than in the first half!

But the surprising trend was that the average day temperatures in November 2014 at 33.53C was almost one degree Celcius hotter than that in October 2014 at 32.63C!

However the average night temperature in November 2014 at 21.69C was almost two degrees Celcius cooler than that in October 2014 at 23.83C!

According to NOAA report quoted by Times of India in it's edition of December 1, 2014 this October was the hottest October on record Globally!

Now would you agree with that if you were living in Goa? You decide!!

Nippy November mornings ahead!

This week, for the first time this year, morning temperatures dropped below 20C, giving a nippy feel experience to early risers in Goa!

November 26 recorded 19.3C and November 27 recorded 19.2C, both around 2-3C below normal.

While Northern Plains of India are in the grip of a cold wave, as detailed in the latest Blog entry at the weather blog Vagaries of Weather, Goa has been reeling under hot, humid weather for whole of November, till now.

Though the days continue to record maximum temperatures of 33-34C, the cold northerly winds are expected to lower both the maximum and minimum temperatures over coming days.

 You can follow the daily temperature chart for Panaji here

Hot Sunny Days in November!

Goa is experiencing a spell of hot sunny days in late November!

Day temperatures reach 34-35 C around mid-day, but are above 30C for most of the day!

Early morning the temperature measures around 21 to 22 C with the minimum temperature on the morning of November 20, 2014 in fact climbing to 22.8C!


The daily temperature chart for Panaji as per IMD records, is available at Vagaries Goa daily temperature page here and is reproduced below. Except for a couple of days in the middle of the month when overcast skies and rains prevailed over Goa, the Day temperatures hover around 34-35 with humidity coming down below 50% mid day and early morning temperatures record 21- 22C, with humidity around 80%. Temperatures are 2-3 C lower in the interiors of Goa.

It appears that the cold winds from the North will take some more days to reach Goa and lower the temperatures!

Till then enjoy summer in November, in Goa!

November Rains - Updated November 16, 2014

Updated November 16, 2014

No rains reported in Goa on November 15. Sunday Nov 16 is sunny with clear blue skies. 

Updated on November 15, 2014 1430 hrs:

South Goa recorded more rainfall than North Goa in 24 hrs ending 0830 November 15. Some notable mentions:
Sanguem - 19 mm
Canacona - 17.6 mm
Margao - 12.6 mm (IMD)
Margao - 11 mm (Vagaries Goa)...
Sanquelim (N Goa) - 9.8 mm
Panaji - 3.3 mm

Posted November 14, 2014

Overcast sky conditions have prevailed in Goa for two days since November 13, under the influence of west coast trough extending from Gujarat to Kerala.

Light rains were experienced in all parts of Goa on November 14 from mid day onwards.

Panaji IMD recorded 3.3 mm between 0830 to 1730 hrs and Vagaries Goa at Margao recorded 2 mm during the same period.

Higher rainfall amounts were reported from interior Goa.

Due to the rains day's high temperature came down to 29.8C, 3 degrees below normal. However mornings continue to be warmer with 24.3C being 2 degrees above normal.

Skies are expected to clear over the weekend and no further rains are expected, along the coastal belt.

 

Feels like winter is round the corner! Posted October 30, 2014

After months of hot and humid weather and the monsoon rains and then more rains, the morning of October 30 dawned with a sure promise of Winter round the corner, albeit Goa style!

October 30 morning recorded the lowest temperature of the month so far at 21.3C!

A lovely morning with cool winds, blue skies and soft sunshine.

It can only get better and cooler from here, for those of us who have had enough of the rains and the heat!!

The day highs will continue to be between 31-33 C for still some more days!

Cyclone Nilofar has rapidly downgraded to a deep depression at 1730 IST on October 30, from a category 4 cyclone within 36 hrs. It lay to the west south west of Kutch and is expected to bring some heavy showers to Kutch in Gujarat and Sindh in Pakistan. But these regions will be spared of any cyclonic threats.

For those desiring more detailed information on Cyclone Nilofar, please checkout the regular posts from Weather Guru Rajesh Kapadia at http://www.vagaries.in

October 28 heralds a beautiful day ahead!

Clear blue skies, cool winds at 25C at 8 am in Margao Goa herald a beautiful day ahead for Goa!

Nil rainfall was recorded almost all over Goa during the last 24 hrs and today seems no different!

This makes a mockery of the scary newspaper headlines in today's local paper though!

With north west part of Arabial Sea and moving north/ north eastward, the impact on Goa is expected to be minimal or nil!

Goa gets a respite from incessant rains on October 27

After receiving heavy rains from the developing cyclone Nilofer on October 24 evening and October 25, rains eased on Ocober 26 even though skies remained highly overcast.

During 24 hrs ending 0830 hrs on October 27, Vagaries Goa rain gauge at Margao recorded only 21 mm compared to 130 mm and 158 mm on 25th and 26th respectively.

Clouds have thinned out since the morning of 27th allowing pleasant sunshine and glimpses of deep blue skies. No rainfall has been reported till the time of posting.

The cyclone is almost stationery off the coast of Oman and is expected to move towards Kutch/ Sindh.

The winds and moisture appears to be moving away from the west coast of India sucked into the cyclone.

However IMD has issued a heavy rains warning for 27th and isolated heavy rains warning for the 28th, and we shall keep a watch on the situation!

Heavy Rains continue for 2nd Day running - Updated October 26, 2014

Heavy overcast conditions with heavy downpours continued in Goa for a second day under the influence of developing Cyclone Nilufer now located at 14.2N and 63.0E, having moved NE as per the analysis in this latest post at Vagaries of Weather Blog.

IMD reports 138 mm at Panaji for 24 hrs ending 0830 on October 26.

However, Vagaries Goa Rain Gauge at Margao recorded 158 mm during  the same period. Of this nearly 125 mm (5 inches) was recorded during only 6 hrs from 11 pm to 5 am! This brings the total rainfall recorded at Margao in 48 hrs to 288 mm (11.34 inches). 

There are reports of wall collapses, trees falling and water logging from many parts of Margao. No loss of life has been reported yet.

Retaining wall between Daud Residency & Pratibha Soc , Aquem, Margao collapsed (photo courtesy Avadhut Kudchadkar)

The rains have eased off since 8 am, but the skies continue to be overcast.

The location of the deep depression in the Arabian Sea appears to have triggered the rains along 15th parallel on both the East Coast and West Coast during early morning hours of October 26, as seen in this EUMETSAT image at 0500 IST:

The showers are forecast to continue till Tuesday October 28 at least!
 

Heavy Rains Lash Goa - Cloud Burst over Margao! Posted October 25, 2014

Those who follow the frequent updates at Vagaries Goa's Facebook Page, will already be aware that the Deep Depression currently raging in the Arabian Sea off the Coast of Goa and which was expected to bring rains to Goa this weekend, has done just that and how!

The rains started all over Goa around 4 pm on October 24. The EUMETSAT image at 1830 IST clearly shows the developing cells over Goa and along the coast south of Goa:

It quickly became clear that Margao was getting more rains than anywhere else.

The Vagaries Goa Rain gauge at Margao was sprinting fast!

Rains started in Margao at 1630 hrs and within the first hour 33 mm were recorded. 72 mm were recorded within 2 and 1/2 hrs. The tally had climbed to 119 mm in 5 hrs till 2100 hrs, when the rains began to ease. Final tally for 24 hrs ending 0830 hrs on October 25 stood at 130 mm at Vagaries Goa. IMD's official reading at Margao was a tad lower at 122.8 mm.

Thus Margao recorded more rains in 12 hrs than in the entire month of October till date. Unfortunately past records are not available for Margao, but this must count amongst the all time maximum recorded on an October day!

In comparison Panaji recorded only 19.9 mm, while the next highest was recorded by Quepem at 60 mm and Sanguem at 57.5 mm.

The rains of October 24-25 in Margao  took the total tally for the month of October so far to 195.1 mm making it the wettest place in Goa in October so far! Sanguem was second at 182.4 mm and Valpoi third at 171.1 mm.


Rainfall recorded in 24 hours at 0830 hrs on October 25, 2014 (Source IMD)
 

Goa continued to be covered in thick clouds from the Arabian Sea disturbance throughout the morning of October 25, and Vagaries Goa recorded 25 mm rains till 1300 hrs. It was as if the June weather at the start of Monsoons had returned!



Margao at 0800 hrs on October 25, 2014

As explained at the Blog Vagaries of Weather in the latest post here,  scattered rains from the developing cyclone are expected to continue in Goa till Tuesday. The day highs may come down to 32-33C and lows to 25-26C.




Hot Diwali ahead - Posted October 17, 2014

School Holidays have started for the long Diwali vacation Holidays and that's just good as well, because the October Heat is really setting in Goa and how do you study and answer mid term exams in this sweltering heat?

 Ever since the SW Monsoon withdrew from Goa on October 12 - check this post, the day temperatures and the night temperatures have been steadily hitting north!

As per the temperature records maintained by IMD Goa, From October 1 to October 15, 2014, we get the following data for the first half of October:

Day Max Temp - 33.7C on October 5
Day Min Temp - 30.8C on October 8

Night Max Temp - 25.3C on October 3 and 13
Night Min Temp - 22.9C on October 7

Average Day Temp - 32.45C
Average Night Temp - 24.35C

However the first day of the second half, October 16, turned out to be the hottest month so far!

IMD Goa at Panaji recorded:

Day High - 35.3C
Night Low - 25.9C

While the humidity hovered over 85% in the morning, by afternoon it dropped to 50%, again rising in the evening under the influence of the winds blowing from the sea! The Heat Index touching 45C!

(Source: IMD-AWS Data for Panaji October 16, 2014)

As the hot dry winds continue to blow over Goa from the East till around noon and the cooler winds from the west and North west commence only in the later part o the day, it looks like day and night temperatures are set to hover around 36 - 37C and 27- 28C at least for the next few days, with Real Feel of temperature touching as high as 45C in the afternoon!

So get set for a Hot Diwali this year!! 

SWM withdraws from Goa, October 13, 2014

The weather blog Vagaries of Weather has estimated that South West Monsoon 2014 has finally withdrawn from the Konkan belt, including Goa as mentioned in its  post on October 12 at http://www.vagaries.in/2014/10/posted-sunday-morning-severe-cyclone.html

Monday morning October 13 saw most of Goa enveloped in mild to thick fog. Goa may have seen the last of the thunderstorms this year on Saturday October 11. There were no reports of rain from any part of Goa on October 12 or 13.

While early mornings are humid, the hot winds have started blowing from N and NW during late mornings and afternoons. The day max temperature is set to cross 33C and will hover around 34-35C in the coming days as October heat from Winds blowing from the North begins to be felt.

The easterly blowing jet streams at 200 hPa have shifted below 15N and westerlies are now turning south as seen here:

However IMD's limit of monsoon withdrawal map still shows the SWM active below Mumbai on the west coast!

So finally the monsoon winds which reached Goan shores this year on June 11, 2014 have finally withdrawn on October 12, 2014! 

Heavy Downpour in one hour on October 8 in Parts of Goa - Posted October 9, 2014

Retreating Monsoon unleashed the heaviest downpour of the month so far this year on October 8, 2014 when Panaji recorded 37.2 mm followed by Quepem with 26 mm and Margao with 23.4 mm. Almost all the rain fell between 10.30 am and 11.30 am and was accompanied by lightening and thunder. Surprisingly barring  Sanguem (16.2 mm) and Dabolim (12.8 mm) all other places in Goa experienced Nil or just traces of rainfall. Mormugao which is within 5 km radius of Dabolim received just traces. Sunshine prevailed over rest of the state throughout the day.

Vagaries recorded 20 mm at Margao. The Daily Rainfall Chart for October 2014 at Vagaries Goa, Margao

This behaviour is typical of retreating of monsoon this time of the year. However IMD Goa has attributed this rain to the effect on wind flow due to the developing Cyclone Hudhud in Bay of Bengal! IMD Goa Official quoted in Times of India

Such short showers accompanied by thunder and lightening in isolated parts of Goa are expected to continue till October 12, after which the monsoon withdrawal from the state should be a hastened one.

As on today October 9, the Tropical Cyclone is rapidly intensifying and is expected to make landfall near Andhra-Odisha border between October 11 and 12 as a severe storm.

However its effect on Goa could be limited to overcast skies and scattered showers from 10th to 12th October. The Direction the wind will take will determine the extent of the impact in Goa.

Following satellite image and computer generated graphics of wind flow illustrate the severe nature  and the likely path of Cyclone Hudhud.

 

Goa Monsoons 2014 Seasonal Total Rainfall in Google Earth

The South West Monsoon Season brings the bulk of the rains to Goa every year.

The Monsoon season lasts from June 1 to September 30th.

The following depiction in Google Earth of the Total Seasonal rainfall received in 2014 this year in Goa, clearly shows:

1. Heaviest rainfall was witnessed at the base of the Western Ghats bordering Goa in the East and South East. Thus Valpoi is the wettest place in Goa followed closely by Sanguem.

2. Rainfall decreases towards the coast. And Mormugao Port area and Dabolim Airport area receive the least rainfall as recorded at the 13 Rain Stations across Goa by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Goa.

For more detailed analysis of SWM 2014 performance in Goa see  blog post Goa 2014 Monsoon Analysis

 

Goa Monsoon 2014 Analysis - Happy Ending!

The South West Monsoon Season brings the bulk of the rains to Goa every year.

The Monsoon season lasts from June 1 to September 30th.

Monsoon season 2014 started with the scary prospect of deficient rains! There was a talk everywhere of an El Nino in August - September. And to compound the problem, arrival of the rains in Goa was delayed by 5 days. From June 1 to June 30 Goa received nearly 46% deficient rains. But it was the copious rains that Goa received in July and August which turned the tide! Check these blog posts for details of June 2014 Monsoon Analysis,  July 2014 Monsoon Analysis,  August 2014 Monsoon Analysis

In 2014 in the final analysis, from June 1 to September 30, Goa received Area Weighted Average Rainfall of 3057.2 mm (120.36 inches) against normal of 2971.7 mm (117 inches) showing a surplus of 3%! The pattern of rain during the four months is brought out in the IMD Goa prepared daily average rainfall graph in Figure 1, the Monthly Rainfall and total Rainfall graph in Figure 2 and the cumulative rainfall graph in Figure 3 below.

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

IMD Goa maintains daily records at 13 Rain Stations across Goa. It was again Valpoi at the base of the Western Ghats in the Eastern Interior Goa which retained the title of the wettest place in Goa for 2014! Valpoi received 4111.4 mm (161.87 inches) of seasonal rains. It was closely followed like last year by Sanguem, also at the base of the Western Ghats but more to the South. Sanguem received 3950.2 mm (155.52 inches) of seasonal rainfall. Margao, Canacona and Sakhali also made it to the top 5 wettest spots. See Figure 4.

Figure 4

The rains decreased from the interior towards the coast and the Port town of Mormugao with 2460.3 mm (94.74 inches) and the Airport town of Dabolim with 2337.8 mm (92.04 inches) occupied the bottom of the table. In fact these two places were the only places which did not cross the Century of Seasonal Rainfall in inches. Rest all places crossed 100 inches of rainfall.

A graphical depiction of the seasonal rainfall in Google Earth shows the variation quite well.

Figure 5

Rainfall in September 2014 was almost entirely restricted to the first half of the month.

Vagaries Goa Rain Gauge which is located at Margao brought this out well as seen in the daily rainfall readings in Figure 6.

Figure 6

The last few days of September witnessed  thunderstorms in the late afternoons associated with retreating monsoon. The thunderstorms which start in the interior from the east and proceed towards the west and the Arabian sea, brought increasing rainfall in the interior. Figure 7 shows the September 2014 rainfall pattern across Goa.

Figure 7

Margao monthly rainfall in Figure 8, is representative of the rainfall pattern this year across the state of Goa.

Figure 8

So even though the seasonal monsoon rains in 2014 were less than 2013, the fears of El Nino did not materialize and the copious rains in August were just enough to turn the deficit into a 3% surplus rainfall season for Goa!

Just for comparison Figure 9 shows the Sub-division wise average rainfall across India. Thus India as a whole showed a deficit of 12%! For a more detailed look at the performance of Monsoons in India for 2014 check this post at the weather blog www.vagaries.in.

Figure 9

Though the Monsoon season ends on September 30, the withdrawal of monsoon from Goa usually gets prolonged till mid October. And so the monsoon magic continues!

 

SW Monsoon is now withdrawing - posted September 29, 2014

The South west Monsoon has now started withdrawing from India beginning from west Rajasthan and progressively from Gujarat, west M.P., west U.P., The Punjab and the rest of the country.

IMD has officially indicated the withdrawal in the map below as on September 28.

Monsoon normally withdraws from Goa between Obctober 1 and 15. This year is no exception and during last two weeks Goa has been experiencing isolated thunderstorms in the late afternoons and evenings, typical of withdrawing monsoon.

The day maximum temperatures are expected to be around 33-35C with lower humidity than normal due to winds blowing from the East and North.

Likelihood of rains this week - posted Monday September 22, 2014

Goa continues to enjoy a fine mid September spell of occasional rains and plenty of sunshine as forecast in the last post !

However things may change later this week. Retreating monsoon season would see late afternoon and evening showers accompanied with thunder from Wednesday 24th onwards till around Friday 26th. This would be particularly true towards the hills in the interior of Goa. Coastal areas may experience overcast skies. As explained by the weather blogger Mr Rajesh Kapadia in his blog The Vagaries of Weather at http://www.vagaries.in  in THIS POST a Line of Wind Discontinuity (LWD) will form on 23rd from around Satara in Maharashtra to interior Karnataka, and a low will form at the same time in interior Karnataka. This low is expected to travel west and fizzle out in the Arabian Sea off the coast of North Karnataka.

Goa will be benefitting from the rains from this system!

Quoting further from the Blog Vagaries of Weather "Monsoon has withdrawn from west Rajasthan and Kutch and begin gradually withdrawing from Punjab and (rest of) Rajasthan by 23rd".

Goa has received normal rain with just 4% excess as seen in this graphic from http://imdgoa.gov.in

However overall deficiency for SWM 2014 over India remains -11%

Things are not expected to change much over rest of the monsoon season which officially ends on September 30!

Update September 15, 2014 - Monsoon Withdrawal Symptoms?

Update September 18,2014, 1800 hrs:

Break Monsoon like conditions returned on September 17 and Vagaries Goa recorded zero mm in 24 hrs ending 0830 September 18. Check here. September 19 saw heavy downpours in some parts mostly towards the interior, but largely the coastal belt remained dry. Vagaries Goa recorded zero mm during 0830 - 1800 on September 19.


Update September 16, 2014, 1800 hrs

 

As if to prove wrong the GFS forecast mentioned in the post below, most parts of Goa remained heavily overcast from September 16th morning and experienced scattered heavy downpours throughout the day. Vagaries Goa recorded 20 mm from 0830 to 1800 hrs on September 16th, and the rains continued at the time of this update. This development tied up with formation of low pressure area in westcentral Bay of Bengal and adjoining Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Associated upper air cyclonic circulation.

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Last year in 2013, September saw an almost dry period in Goa for the first 15 days, followed by one of the wettest 15 days period in September in recent years. Checkout this post on September 2013 Monsoon Revival

However this year in 2014, the last fortnight may well signal that the Monsoons are finally withdrawing.

GFS forecasts for Goa are all pointing to atleast a dry week ahead till September 21/22. The SW Arabian Sea winds are also weak with low moisture.

These Rains in First half of September have helped Valpoi cross the 150 inches mark and retain its role as the wettest place in Goa. Sanguem is however, not very far behind:

Mapusa, Mormugao and Dabolim are the only rain stations in Goa which have not crossed the Century rainfall mark in inches as of 15th September.

As of September 15, 2014 the Area Weighted Average rainfall for Goa has reached 2961.9 mm (116.6 inches) against normal of 2845 mm (112 inches), which is a surplus of +4% as on September 15!

You can check out the pattern of Rainfall in Goa from June 1 to September 15, 2014 in Google Earth and also monthwise graphically HERE

And you can check the daily rainfall pattern for my hometown Margao HERE

Are we going to end Monsoon 2014 in surplus after all? Watch this space!!

SWM 2014 a Review so far - posted September 6, 2014

The official South West Monsoon season in India lasts from June 1 to September 30. The forecasts for this year's SWM were grim, what with the possibility of La Nina being predicted to bring poor rains to the country.

We are now one week into September and with just three weeks to go before this year's SWM season ends, its worthwhile taking a look back on the SWM 2014 performance so far.

Weather Blogger Rajesh Kapadia has done just that and his blog entry dated September 6, 2014 at www.vagaries.in is reproduced in full below after the graphics below.

The graphics indicate that a super duper spell in late August across the length and breadth of India has brought the deficiency down to just -12% as on September 6. Most of the country has received Normal rains, while J&K and S.I. Karnataka have received excess rains. Orange colour indicates deficient rains. There are no sub divisions with scanty rainfall records as on September 6, 2014! However the situation can change if the rains take a break for a few days in September!

Till September 5, NW India was the worst performer followed by East & North East and Central India. Punjab, Haryana, H.P. and Delhi NCR along with Marathwada remain the worry areas. However the excellent rains in Karnataka as a whole, has helped South Peninsula to show a deficiency of just -5%!

For Goa the situation is much better as on September 6, than what it looked like earlier. June '14 end the deficiency was -49%, July '14 end the deficiency was -17%, but by September 6, 2014, Goa had received +4% more than normal LPA, mostly due to the extremely heavy spell in the last week of August!

As the article by Rajesh Kapadia reproduced below indicates we may have a better year than 2009 after all!

SWM 2014 thus far. An brief Review....6th September - By Rajesh Kapadia (www.vagaries.in)

From a threatening -47% down to -12% today. The country has received 655 mms against a normal of 765 mms till date. Thats the overall All India Monsoon Position. Thanks to massive rains in Jammu Kashmir and Punjab last few days, the overall deficit has come to almost reasonable and "civilised" levels.In fact, a few more % points reduction and the dubious label of "drought" will be wiped out. IMD considers a drought year if the deficit falls below -10%. Seems likely to be covered this year.
India normally receives 890 mms in the 4 months of SWM season as a long term average.
Situation is far better than the worst year 2009. That year, the deficit at the end of the season was -23%.
But, still there are a few areas of concern. Punjab, UP and Marathwada amongst them. I would put it like this: the situation in these few regions is still far from being "drought free".Marathwada may see very good rains next few days from BB-8.
However, thinking positively, the late surge of rains in Punjab and Rajasthan and NW India, will benefit the rabi season immensely. It will be saturating the soil with sufficient soil moisture.

But, the water position may not be as comfortable. The overall water reservoir stocks is below normal,except in Central India. North ndia, which has seen the maximum shortage of adequate rainfall, sees the stock of reservoirs at 79% ( 93% last year) of full capacity. Eastern India stocks show 68% (75% last year) of full capacity. Western India 70% (76%) of capacity and South India 68% (81% last year. Central India is the lone zone seeing better than last year levels at 74% (58% last year).
The Overall country average is 71% ( 87%) of capacity against full level.