Cloudy, Rainy weather forecast from mid week

A rapidly developing low, strengthening east off the coast of Tamil Nadu together with a UAC developing into a low, off the coast of Karnataka and traveling northwards, are expected to together contribute to a fresh bout of off seasonal wet weather in Goa, mid week onwards from Oct 23 to 26th.

The above EUMETSAT image shows the position of the low on East coast as at 3 pm IST on Oct 22, bringing rains to TN and Andra coasts.

The IMD projections for Oct 25th as below, show the east blowing winds and the low centered at 15 N off the coast of Goa. 

This weather system is expected to bring the additional rains to Goa from 10 to 25 mm mostly on 23 rd evening, 24th and 25th.

The SW monsoon has completely withdrawn from the country and the NE monsoon has set. Rains in Goa associated with weather systems of NE monsoons in October are not uncommon.

Expect cloudy weather with occasional bouts of rains with high probability on 24, 25 and 26.

Posting from Chicago, USA, where first snows, freezing are expected on Oct 22!

Withdrawal of SW Monsoon from Goa - Bye bye Rains, Hello Sunshine!

The easterlies have set in Goa, marking the withdrawal of SW Monsoon from Goa.

The IMD needs 3 days to officially declare the withdrawal, but even the official IMD map on October 19 indicates the withdrawal line at Goa's doorstep.

The days have turned hot, sultry and humid, leading to thunder laden conventional rains in the late afternoon in many parts.

Day Highs are 34C, with a feel of 40C under the sun.

The night Lows are around 24C.

Humidity is in the high 80s.

Late evenings and nights feel cooler, specially after shower bursts.

The weather will continue to remain hot over next few days.

I look forward to some dramatically different climes as I travel to the Mid west and North East US over the next ten days! Cold jet stream moving southwards from Canada is expected to lower the Highs to around 15C and Lows to near freezing in most of these areas. Would I see the first freezing or frost? I'm hoping I do!

Finally last gasps of SW monsoons 2013 - thunders a galore!

The SW monsoon is retreating rapidly now. Though IMD has not updated their withdrawal map, as of October 16, conditions in other parts of India indicate that monsoon withdrawal line could be at north Konkan running through MP.

The monsoon axis is shifting southward everyday and the monsoon is expected to withdraw from Goa by early next week.

Heavy thunder activity accompanied by moderate rains was reported from most places in Goa, specially in the interior after 2 pm.

Coastal areas were receiving scattered rains till late evening.

Skies were heavily overcast and humidity was high throughout the day.

Humidity recorded at 08:30 hrs was 89% (+05), and at 17:30 hrs was 88% (+13).

Thunder activity is expected to continue for next few days.

The day temperature is going to remain hot and sultry!

Current weather in Goa

Rains have been sparse, 'hit and miss' across Goa.

Top rains recorded in the last two days in 24hrs period ending 08:30 hrs are:

Oct 11 - Old Goa - 12.5 mm

Oct 12 - Margao - 14.5 mm

It was dry in majority areas.

Day max temp is around 31.5 C

Night min temp is around 24.5 C

Humidy is in the 90s in the mornings and dew and fog are common at many places.

Humidity reduces into the 70s in the evenings.

A weak trough exists along the Arabian Coast, but rain activity will remain subdued till the depression reaches west traveling from the east.

Severe Cyclone 'Phialin' set to hit Odisha coast

The major typhoon 'Phailin' originating in Bay of Bengal and heading towards the coasts of Odisha and North AP, has rapidly intensified into a Cat 4 and is being classified as 'super cyclone' by IMD.

Core wind speeds are touching 250 kph and intense rains have started in the coastal areas of Odisha and North AP.

The cyclone combined with a UAC central India is expected to activate the trough in the Arabian Sea along west coast, which could bring squally weather and rains in Goa.

Goa September '13 Rainfall Analysis - Monsoon Revival!

September 30, marks the end of the official monsoon season, a season which began on June 1!

However this year on September 30th, there is still no sign of the monsoon ending, at least till good part of October. In fact as pointed out in the previous post, there is a revival of sorts of monsoon, which had retreated officially from Rajasthan and NW India. As on date and for the next two three days rains monsoon like rains are expected again in these areas. For a more technical explanation check this video explanation by Rajesh Kapadia in his blog 'vagaries of the weather'

It's no different in Goa!

After the deficient rains in August the trend continued into September and for the first 15 days there was hardly any rains. But then, the rains revived, and with a vigour! The daily September 2013 chart for Margao illustrates the trend as below:

These second half rains have brought the month of September more than the normal rains as recorded for Panaji:

At the beginning of the monsoon season, this post in 'Weather in Goa' Blog had speculated about a few things:

1. Would Valpoi reach 250 inches?
2. Would Panaji (Goa) reach 150 inches?
3. Would Ponda figure in the top 3 places receiving heaviest rainfall?
4. Would Margao get more rains than Panaji?

While Valpoi reached 200 inches on September 30, 250 inches seem out of reach! After the initial excellent rains of July, Panaji struggled to reach 100 inches and did so only due to the late spurt in the rains in September! Sakhali appeared suddenly in IMD's rain centres pushing Ponda to fourth place and YES, Margao finished above Panaji by a large margin!!

So the final seasonal rains are as below:

Thus it appears that it has rained more than 100 inches everywhere in Goa.

Valpoi with the highest and Mormugao with the lowest.

Canacona received the highest rains in September 23.74 inches, followed by Margao at 21.41 inches.

The temperatures recorded during September were as under:

Max Day Temperature : 32.1 C

Min Day Temperature : 27.3 C

Min Night Temperature : 21.6 C

Max Night Temperature : 24.4 C

Average Day Temperature : 30.1 C

Average Night Temperature : 23.5 C

Of course we'll continue to track the rains into October!



Clear Skies, but rains have not gone away yet!

Monday 7th and Tuesday 8th were sunny with clear night skies.

This afforded a great view of the October night skies with a very prominent combination of the 4 day old moon and bright venus high in the south west on 8th.

Crescent Moon and brilliant Venus on the night of October 8, 2013 with the star Antares to the upper left

The bright star Antares in the constellation Scorpius is also visible in the photo above.

On both days there was no rain recorded in any part of Goa.

Day temperature High recorded on October 8th was 31.7C and morning Lowest temperature recorded on October 9th rising to 24.3C.

Humidity is in mid 90s from morning till late afternoon, making it hot and sultry outdoors

Convectional rains with thunder are expected in the afternnon in the state on 10th, 11th and 12th particularly in the interior areas.

The retreat of SW monsoon from N India should resume by tomorrow.

But Goa may see complete withdrawal of the monsoon only in the second half of October.

Monsoon Lingers ....

The UAC off Arabian Sea has crossed over Goa's coast on Oct 5th evening but not before bringing plentiful rains as forecast for three days.

The rains recorded for 24 hrs period ending 8.30 am at various places is as under:

The June - July like weather which prevailed on these days was a reminder that the monsoon is not yet done with.

The prospects for further rainfall this week has to be seen in the larger context of the meteorological developments over the sub continent.

As seen in the latest satellite image, the monsoon axis is in central India and thunder clouds are seen in this area. There is a high possibility of another UAC forming in the central Indian region and travelling towards the west, in the next 2-3 days. If this happens then the Arabian Sea trough will get activated again, bringing rains along the coast including in Goa.

The GFS meteogram for Goa also suggests the same.

Probability of rains with thunder in the second half of the week exists, but the rainfall amounts could be lower around 10-25 mm.

Weekend prospects

The Arabian Sea monsoon trough became active again west of the Konkan coast south till Goa from October 3 onwards, and is expected to persist till Sunday 6th.

A UAC has also formed in this trough SW of Mumbai

The combination of this trough and the UAC will bring rains along Konkan coast including Goa till Sunday morning. 

The rains are expected to taper by evening of 6th in Goa, with upto 25 mm rains in the interiors.