Will Panaji (Goa) touch 100 inches by August end?

Panaji rainfall as on August 29 has reached 2445 mm, i.e. 95 mm short of 2540 mm i.e. 100 inches! 

So the big question is will Panaji receive around 4 inches of rains in the next two days for the headlines on September 1 to read in bold that the seasonal rainfall in Goa has crossed a century?

This seems highly unlikely given today's conditions.

The low from Bay has fizzled out around west MP. The west coast trough is very quiet. The rains are active generally in Eastern part of India.

Though Goa has been experiencing overcast conditions, it has rained only in traces last two-three days.

No change in outlook is expected, till at least August end.

Hence Panaji will continue to struggle to reach the century mark!

But watch out for Weather in Goa's month end analysis to check out the cities that have already reached the century mark!

Day temperatures will remain around 30C and night temperatures around 24C.

August 23 - What's in store for the coming week?

Last week, it rained everyday in Goa. Heavy rains on Saturday 17 and Sunday 18 tapered off slowly as the week progressed. It looked as if the rains were trying to compensate for the poor performance in the first half of the month. While it rained more in the interior, coastal Goa was also not far behind, as seen from the daily chart for Margao over the week gone by:

August by far has always been less wet than June and July and this year is no exception. The chart below for monthly rainfall till August 23, brings this out very clearly.

For Panaji, 21.10 inches of rains in August is considered normal. Thus till August 23, we have had only 60% of normal rains in August. However due to the super performance in July, the rains are still 6 inches above normal overall.

So what does the monsoon have in store for the coming week?

As seen in this EUMETSAT image on August 23, the weakened low has traveled to Gujarat- Rajasthan from the Bay of Bengal. It has pulled in the moisture from Arabian Sea too, resulting in rains over Sindh in Pakistan and coastal Gujarat. But over Goa and Konkan humidity is expected to fall over the next week.

Thus in absence of any activity of the monsoon trough along the west coast, rainfall is expected to further decrease in the coming week. Sky may remain overcast with a few intense showers, but rainfall along the coast should be between 10-20 mm in the first few days of the week, reducing further towards end of coming week. The interiors should receive a little higher rainfall.

Will update the blog, if there are any new developments.

The hopes of Panaji and consequently Goa (for IMD records purpose), reaching 100 inches mark before August end seems less likely!

Update Saturday 17, August - Present Rain Spell to continue till Monday?

It appears from the present conditions that the current spell of somewhat intense rain activity will continue at least till Monday August 19.

Late Friday 16th and Saturday 17th morning onwards most parts of Goa received moderate to heavy spells of rains under the influence of a vortex off the coast of Goa.

The low in the Bay of Bengal continued to influence the monsoon activity on the west coast from Kerala to Goa. Panaji received more than 1 inch of rain in 6 hours from 08:30 hrs on Saturday, with heavier rains towards the interior. Rains are expected to total between 2 inches to 3 inches in most areas in 24 hrs period ending Sunday.

The rains are expected to taper after Monday 19 th as the low in the Bay fizzles out. The coming week should again bring the sun out and the next weekend could be a lot better, weather-wise!

Mid Month Review - Monsoon dismal in August so far

Goa, on an average has received only around 28% of the normal rains for August so far till August 15, 2013. This represents a sharp departure from the almost incessant rains during the entire month of July.

The rainfall recorded at Panaji is taken as the average rainfall for Goa. And the rainfall recorded this season till 8:30 am of August 15, 2013 has been:

Though the seasonal rainfall till date is almost normal, the shortfall in August is around 15 inches.

Across Goa this deficit in August can be sharply gauged from the following month-wise, seasonal graph:

Valpoi continues to lead the pack with 160 inches of rain so far this season. Sanguem, Sakhali, Ponda, Pernem, Margao, Old Goa and Quepem are the other centers which have crossed the 100 inches mark. Only Mapusa, Panaji, Canacona, Dabolim and Mormugao are yet to reach the century mark.

A look at the rainfall this season across India sub-divisional wise till August 15:

The Konkan - Goa sub division shows +31% departure from normal. India as a whole has recorded +13% departure from normal. Only the NE States, Bihar and Jharkhand have had deficient rainfall till date.

We shall look at the prospects for the rest of the month in the next update.

August 13/ 14 - Rains make a comeback!

After a dismal performance in August till date, the monsoon has made a concerted effort to make a comeback in Goa!

Post midnight of August 13, within 4 hours Panaji received more than 1 inch of rains. So did most parts of Goa.

Cloud Cover at 5:30 pm over India

After nearly a week of hours and hours of sunshine, August 13 was mostly overcast with intense intermittent rains starting afternoon. Humidity is stifling and Max day temperatures are around 31C nearly +3 normal.

COLA/IGES Meteogram for Goa shows rains continuing to be around 20-30 mm on Wednesday 14th, with decreasing rains on 15th.

Meteogram for Goa for Aug 13 - 21

The off shore trough has become unpredictable and hence the weak phase of the monsoon.

Let us see if things change when we update again on August 15.

Come back again for a mid August analysis of the rains in Goa on August 15!

Watching Perseid Meteor Shower on August 11-12 - Weather permitting

Updated Aug 13 - Cloudy conditions on both 11th and 12th night in Margao, put paid to my Perseid viewing hopes! Not a single Perseid even this year!

This year's Monsoon break in August, presents a great opportunity for observing the famed annual Meteor Showers named as 'Perseids' from Goa on the nights of August 11 and August 12, from around 11 pm to the break of down.

The rains are expected to be hardly 10 - 15 mm per 24 hr period for these two days and the skies are not expected to be heavily overcast. The clouds rolling by in the night skies do provide windows of cloudless patches, through which one can see the stars, planets Venus - till 8.30 pm in the west - and planet Saturn - till midnight in the south west. The moon is waxing and sets before 10.30 pm on both the nights.

The Perseid Meteor shower, an annual celestial event, observed by millions around the world, but seldom witnessed in this part of the world because of the monsoon rains, returns to the night sky this week and is expected to peak on the night of August 11 and also putting up a show on the night of August 12. Around 100 meteors per hour are expected to zip by in dark clouds!

NASA APOD

The best time to see these meteors is after 11 pm till the break of dawn! If the skies are clear, choose a dark spot to make yourself comfortable on a reclining chair, perhaps and look up at any part of the dark skies. No binoculars or telescope are required.

Perseids can appear anywhere and everywhere in the sky. Be patient. Faint Perseids appear as tiny, faint streaks, but occasionally brighter ones may sail across the skies for several seconds and even leave a brief train of glowing smoke. When you see a meteor, track its path backward. If you eventually come to the constellation Perseus, then you've just seen a Perseid!

For more on the how and why of these showers check out this Astronomy Magazine's article

I've never seen the Perseids. But I still remember with awe the magnificent display of fireballs and meteors

Streaking  by during the Meteor storm of the Leonids in the early morning of November 18, 2003!

I will be watching for sure, do let us know if you see any!

Green Goa bathing in sunshine!

The rains are tapering off at least till the weekend!

From 3 to 4 showers of light rain per day with about 10 - 20 mm rainfall, the rains are expected to decrease further from Thursday .

A weak anti cyclonic formation in the Arabian Sea, has resulted in the collapse of the monsoon trough on the west coast of India, leading to a break in the heavy monsoon rains experienced in July.

Goa will be receiving winds in the NW direction with max day temperature climbing to 32C and humidy falling to around 70% in the evenings.

The COLA/IGES Meteogram for Goa looks something like his for the next six days:

Any Goan worth his salt will swear to you, that this monsoon break is the best time to be in Goa, with green fields, green trees, green hills and a breath of freshness in the air!

White fluffy Cumulus will float by other towering Cumulus  Congestus clouds against blue skies, and you may just spy the occasional Contrails!

Checkout again on Sunday for updates!

Of Blue Skies, Cirrus Clouds - outlook for July 6, 7 and 8

Rains recorded during last three days at Margao and Panaji have been decreasing and Goa has been experiencing rains upto 25 mm/day.

Rainfall (mm) in the last three days:
August     3          4         5
Margao   31.8      8.5      16.5
Panaji     27.2       0.9       6.2

After a long time one could glimpse blue skies and cirrus cloud high in the troposphere!

Umbrellas served dual purpose of protection against the occasional showers and the harsh sun. Max Day temperatures are up to around 31C.

Cirro-cumulus clouds against clear skies at day break in Margao, Aug 5



 Next three days are also expected to be mainly dry with spells of rainfall. The daily rains should be around 15-25 mm.

A larger picture of the weather outlook for India as a whole over the next few days is given the the blog 'vagaries of weather' http://rajesh26.blogspot.in/

Will there be a rainbow in the skies? Keep looking

Weather update for Saturday 3, Sunday 4 and Monday 5 - Great time to visit Goa?

After the relentless rains of July, August in Goa has begun with reduced rains and sunshine!

1. The low from Bay of Bengal, that traversed across central India is now over Gujarat, pulling rain bearing clouds from the Arabian Sea away from the west coast, more towards Gujarat

2. The monsoon trough along the west coast, exists but is weakened

3. Computer models indicate a break in rain next few days in August

Over Saturday 3, Sunday 4 and Monday 5, Goa is expected to receive 15 - 30 mm rains, less towards the coast, more in the interior, with long spells of sunshine! Giving  sand on the beach chance to dry out!

The newspapers and social are full of events being organized in Lounges, Pubs, Restaurants and Beach Resorts across Goa. Goa is at its greenest and myriad waterfalls line the Western Ghats.

The day temperature will rise a bit to around 30C.

Promises to be a great time to be in Goa!

Goa July 2013 Rainfall Analysis - Wettest month in 18 years

According to the records of rainfall kept by Goa Meteorological Center, for Panaji - and which is wrongly reported as the rainfall of entire Goa state - the July total rainfall of 1,387.8 mm (54.6 in) was the highest recorded since July 1995, when Panaji received 1,526.1 mm (60.8 in).

Last year in July 2012, Panaji had received only 616.0 mm (24.3 in) of rain. Thus this year's July rainfall in Panaji, represents a whopping 125.3% increase over last year.

The story is repeated all over the state with interior parts of Goa receiving far in excess of the coastal areas. Valpoi receiving 96.52 in in rainfall compared to 54.6 in received by Panaji.

For the Monsoon season 2013, the total rainfall from June 1 to July 31, 2013 shows the top five all over 100 inches already, are as follows:

1. Valpoi: 142.59 in (3621.9 mm)
2. Sanguem: 121.3 in (3080.9 mm)
3. Sankhali: 109.6 in (2783.8 mm)
4. Ponda: 106.5 in (2705.2 mm)
5. Pernem: 100.5 in (2552.8 mm)

The surprise in the coastal area was Margao which recorded 95.5 in (2429.2 mm). Unfortunately historical data is not available for centers other than Panaji.

In keeping with July being the wettest month, all the centers received nearly twice the amount of rainfall in July than in June. For Sankhalim and Old Goa, separate June aand July data is not available.

Margao, being my home town gets a special mention here!

The daily record of rainfall shows that the 24 hr period ending 8.30 am on July 3 was the wettest day with 8.27 in (210.4 mm) of rainfall! It rained on all the days but on 16th, 17th and 31st the rainfall was less than 10 mm providing some respite for the people.Rest of the days the rainfall was moderate to heavy!

It was also the month when parts of Cuncolim, Sankhali and Bicholim were flooded, wild mushrooms and Bamboo Shoots made their appearance on the Goan food menu and everyone else was in awe of the non stop rainfall!

Temperature in July:

Day Max: 31.3C on 16/7
Day Min: 25.3C on 2/7 & 12/7

Night Max: 25.4C on 4/7 and 16/7
Night Min: 22.1C on 29/7

Average Max: 28.26C
Average Min: 23.33C

Let's see what August has in store for us!