Feels like winter is round the corner! Posted October 30, 2014

After months of hot and humid weather and the monsoon rains and then more rains, the morning of October 30 dawned with a sure promise of Winter round the corner, albeit Goa style!

October 30 morning recorded the lowest temperature of the month so far at 21.3C!

A lovely morning with cool winds, blue skies and soft sunshine.

It can only get better and cooler from here, for those of us who have had enough of the rains and the heat!!

The day highs will continue to be between 31-33 C for still some more days!

Cyclone Nilofar has rapidly downgraded to a deep depression at 1730 IST on October 30, from a category 4 cyclone within 36 hrs. It lay to the west south west of Kutch and is expected to bring some heavy showers to Kutch in Gujarat and Sindh in Pakistan. But these regions will be spared of any cyclonic threats.

For those desiring more detailed information on Cyclone Nilofar, please checkout the regular posts from Weather Guru Rajesh Kapadia at http://www.vagaries.in

October 28 heralds a beautiful day ahead!

Clear blue skies, cool winds at 25C at 8 am in Margao Goa herald a beautiful day ahead for Goa!

Nil rainfall was recorded almost all over Goa during the last 24 hrs and today seems no different!

This makes a mockery of the scary newspaper headlines in today's local paper though!

With north west part of Arabial Sea and moving north/ north eastward, the impact on Goa is expected to be minimal or nil!

Goa gets a respite from incessant rains on October 27

After receiving heavy rains from the developing cyclone Nilofer on October 24 evening and October 25, rains eased on Ocober 26 even though skies remained highly overcast.

During 24 hrs ending 0830 hrs on October 27, Vagaries Goa rain gauge at Margao recorded only 21 mm compared to 130 mm and 158 mm on 25th and 26th respectively.

Clouds have thinned out since the morning of 27th allowing pleasant sunshine and glimpses of deep blue skies. No rainfall has been reported till the time of posting.

The cyclone is almost stationery off the coast of Oman and is expected to move towards Kutch/ Sindh.

The winds and moisture appears to be moving away from the west coast of India sucked into the cyclone.

However IMD has issued a heavy rains warning for 27th and isolated heavy rains warning for the 28th, and we shall keep a watch on the situation!

Heavy Rains continue for 2nd Day running - Updated October 26, 2014

Heavy overcast conditions with heavy downpours continued in Goa for a second day under the influence of developing Cyclone Nilufer now located at 14.2N and 63.0E, having moved NE as per the analysis in this latest post at Vagaries of Weather Blog.

IMD reports 138 mm at Panaji for 24 hrs ending 0830 on October 26.

However, Vagaries Goa Rain Gauge at Margao recorded 158 mm during  the same period. Of this nearly 125 mm (5 inches) was recorded during only 6 hrs from 11 pm to 5 am! This brings the total rainfall recorded at Margao in 48 hrs to 288 mm (11.34 inches). 

There are reports of wall collapses, trees falling and water logging from many parts of Margao. No loss of life has been reported yet.

Retaining wall between Daud Residency & Pratibha Soc , Aquem, Margao collapsed (photo courtesy Avadhut Kudchadkar)

The rains have eased off since 8 am, but the skies continue to be overcast.

The location of the deep depression in the Arabian Sea appears to have triggered the rains along 15th parallel on both the East Coast and West Coast during early morning hours of October 26, as seen in this EUMETSAT image at 0500 IST:

The showers are forecast to continue till Tuesday October 28 at least!
 

Heavy Rains Lash Goa - Cloud Burst over Margao! Posted October 25, 2014

Those who follow the frequent updates at Vagaries Goa's Facebook Page, will already be aware that the Deep Depression currently raging in the Arabian Sea off the Coast of Goa and which was expected to bring rains to Goa this weekend, has done just that and how!

The rains started all over Goa around 4 pm on October 24. The EUMETSAT image at 1830 IST clearly shows the developing cells over Goa and along the coast south of Goa:

It quickly became clear that Margao was getting more rains than anywhere else.

The Vagaries Goa Rain gauge at Margao was sprinting fast!

Rains started in Margao at 1630 hrs and within the first hour 33 mm were recorded. 72 mm were recorded within 2 and 1/2 hrs. The tally had climbed to 119 mm in 5 hrs till 2100 hrs, when the rains began to ease. Final tally for 24 hrs ending 0830 hrs on October 25 stood at 130 mm at Vagaries Goa. IMD's official reading at Margao was a tad lower at 122.8 mm.

Thus Margao recorded more rains in 12 hrs than in the entire month of October till date. Unfortunately past records are not available for Margao, but this must count amongst the all time maximum recorded on an October day!

In comparison Panaji recorded only 19.9 mm, while the next highest was recorded by Quepem at 60 mm and Sanguem at 57.5 mm.

The rains of October 24-25 in Margao  took the total tally for the month of October so far to 195.1 mm making it the wettest place in Goa in October so far! Sanguem was second at 182.4 mm and Valpoi third at 171.1 mm.


Rainfall recorded in 24 hours at 0830 hrs on October 25, 2014 (Source IMD)
 

Goa continued to be covered in thick clouds from the Arabian Sea disturbance throughout the morning of October 25, and Vagaries Goa recorded 25 mm rains till 1300 hrs. It was as if the June weather at the start of Monsoons had returned!



Margao at 0800 hrs on October 25, 2014

As explained at the Blog Vagaries of Weather in the latest post here,  scattered rains from the developing cyclone are expected to continue in Goa till Tuesday. The day highs may come down to 32-33C and lows to 25-26C.




Hot Diwali ahead - Posted October 17, 2014

School Holidays have started for the long Diwali vacation Holidays and that's just good as well, because the October Heat is really setting in Goa and how do you study and answer mid term exams in this sweltering heat?

 Ever since the SW Monsoon withdrew from Goa on October 12 - check this post, the day temperatures and the night temperatures have been steadily hitting north!

As per the temperature records maintained by IMD Goa, From October 1 to October 15, 2014, we get the following data for the first half of October:

Day Max Temp - 33.7C on October 5
Day Min Temp - 30.8C on October 8

Night Max Temp - 25.3C on October 3 and 13
Night Min Temp - 22.9C on October 7

Average Day Temp - 32.45C
Average Night Temp - 24.35C

However the first day of the second half, October 16, turned out to be the hottest month so far!

IMD Goa at Panaji recorded:

Day High - 35.3C
Night Low - 25.9C

While the humidity hovered over 85% in the morning, by afternoon it dropped to 50%, again rising in the evening under the influence of the winds blowing from the sea! The Heat Index touching 45C!

(Source: IMD-AWS Data for Panaji October 16, 2014)

As the hot dry winds continue to blow over Goa from the East till around noon and the cooler winds from the west and North west commence only in the later part o the day, it looks like day and night temperatures are set to hover around 36 - 37C and 27- 28C at least for the next few days, with Real Feel of temperature touching as high as 45C in the afternoon!

So get set for a Hot Diwali this year!! 

SWM withdraws from Goa, October 13, 2014

The weather blog Vagaries of Weather has estimated that South West Monsoon 2014 has finally withdrawn from the Konkan belt, including Goa as mentioned in its  post on October 12 at http://www.vagaries.in/2014/10/posted-sunday-morning-severe-cyclone.html

Monday morning October 13 saw most of Goa enveloped in mild to thick fog. Goa may have seen the last of the thunderstorms this year on Saturday October 11. There were no reports of rain from any part of Goa on October 12 or 13.

While early mornings are humid, the hot winds have started blowing from N and NW during late mornings and afternoons. The day max temperature is set to cross 33C and will hover around 34-35C in the coming days as October heat from Winds blowing from the North begins to be felt.

The easterly blowing jet streams at 200 hPa have shifted below 15N and westerlies are now turning south as seen here:

However IMD's limit of monsoon withdrawal map still shows the SWM active below Mumbai on the west coast!

So finally the monsoon winds which reached Goan shores this year on June 11, 2014 have finally withdrawn on October 12, 2014! 

Heavy Downpour in one hour on October 8 in Parts of Goa - Posted October 9, 2014

Retreating Monsoon unleashed the heaviest downpour of the month so far this year on October 8, 2014 when Panaji recorded 37.2 mm followed by Quepem with 26 mm and Margao with 23.4 mm. Almost all the rain fell between 10.30 am and 11.30 am and was accompanied by lightening and thunder. Surprisingly barring  Sanguem (16.2 mm) and Dabolim (12.8 mm) all other places in Goa experienced Nil or just traces of rainfall. Mormugao which is within 5 km radius of Dabolim received just traces. Sunshine prevailed over rest of the state throughout the day.

Vagaries recorded 20 mm at Margao. The Daily Rainfall Chart for October 2014 at Vagaries Goa, Margao

This behaviour is typical of retreating of monsoon this time of the year. However IMD Goa has attributed this rain to the effect on wind flow due to the developing Cyclone Hudhud in Bay of Bengal! IMD Goa Official quoted in Times of India

Such short showers accompanied by thunder and lightening in isolated parts of Goa are expected to continue till October 12, after which the monsoon withdrawal from the state should be a hastened one.

As on today October 9, the Tropical Cyclone is rapidly intensifying and is expected to make landfall near Andhra-Odisha border between October 11 and 12 as a severe storm.

However its effect on Goa could be limited to overcast skies and scattered showers from 10th to 12th October. The Direction the wind will take will determine the extent of the impact in Goa.

Following satellite image and computer generated graphics of wind flow illustrate the severe nature  and the likely path of Cyclone Hudhud.

 

Goa Monsoons 2014 Seasonal Total Rainfall in Google Earth

The South West Monsoon Season brings the bulk of the rains to Goa every year.

The Monsoon season lasts from June 1 to September 30th.

The following depiction in Google Earth of the Total Seasonal rainfall received in 2014 this year in Goa, clearly shows:

1. Heaviest rainfall was witnessed at the base of the Western Ghats bordering Goa in the East and South East. Thus Valpoi is the wettest place in Goa followed closely by Sanguem.

2. Rainfall decreases towards the coast. And Mormugao Port area and Dabolim Airport area receive the least rainfall as recorded at the 13 Rain Stations across Goa by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Goa.

For more detailed analysis of SWM 2014 performance in Goa see  blog post Goa 2014 Monsoon Analysis

 

Goa Monsoon 2014 Analysis - Happy Ending!

The South West Monsoon Season brings the bulk of the rains to Goa every year.

The Monsoon season lasts from June 1 to September 30th.

Monsoon season 2014 started with the scary prospect of deficient rains! There was a talk everywhere of an El Nino in August - September. And to compound the problem, arrival of the rains in Goa was delayed by 5 days. From June 1 to June 30 Goa received nearly 46% deficient rains. But it was the copious rains that Goa received in July and August which turned the tide! Check these blog posts for details of June 2014 Monsoon Analysis,  July 2014 Monsoon Analysis,  August 2014 Monsoon Analysis

In 2014 in the final analysis, from June 1 to September 30, Goa received Area Weighted Average Rainfall of 3057.2 mm (120.36 inches) against normal of 2971.7 mm (117 inches) showing a surplus of 3%! The pattern of rain during the four months is brought out in the IMD Goa prepared daily average rainfall graph in Figure 1, the Monthly Rainfall and total Rainfall graph in Figure 2 and the cumulative rainfall graph in Figure 3 below.

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

IMD Goa maintains daily records at 13 Rain Stations across Goa. It was again Valpoi at the base of the Western Ghats in the Eastern Interior Goa which retained the title of the wettest place in Goa for 2014! Valpoi received 4111.4 mm (161.87 inches) of seasonal rains. It was closely followed like last year by Sanguem, also at the base of the Western Ghats but more to the South. Sanguem received 3950.2 mm (155.52 inches) of seasonal rainfall. Margao, Canacona and Sakhali also made it to the top 5 wettest spots. See Figure 4.

Figure 4

The rains decreased from the interior towards the coast and the Port town of Mormugao with 2460.3 mm (94.74 inches) and the Airport town of Dabolim with 2337.8 mm (92.04 inches) occupied the bottom of the table. In fact these two places were the only places which did not cross the Century of Seasonal Rainfall in inches. Rest all places crossed 100 inches of rainfall.

A graphical depiction of the seasonal rainfall in Google Earth shows the variation quite well.

Figure 5

Rainfall in September 2014 was almost entirely restricted to the first half of the month.

Vagaries Goa Rain Gauge which is located at Margao brought this out well as seen in the daily rainfall readings in Figure 6.

Figure 6

The last few days of September witnessed  thunderstorms in the late afternoons associated with retreating monsoon. The thunderstorms which start in the interior from the east and proceed towards the west and the Arabian sea, brought increasing rainfall in the interior. Figure 7 shows the September 2014 rainfall pattern across Goa.

Figure 7

Margao monthly rainfall in Figure 8, is representative of the rainfall pattern this year across the state of Goa.

Figure 8

So even though the seasonal monsoon rains in 2014 were less than 2013, the fears of El Nino did not materialize and the copious rains in August were just enough to turn the deficit into a 3% surplus rainfall season for Goa!

Just for comparison Figure 9 shows the Sub-division wise average rainfall across India. Thus India as a whole showed a deficit of 12%! For a more detailed look at the performance of Monsoons in India for 2014 check this post at the weather blog www.vagaries.in.

Figure 9

Though the Monsoon season ends on September 30, the withdrawal of monsoon from Goa usually gets prolonged till mid October. And so the monsoon magic continues!