Plenty of sunshine and scattered rains till week ending June 29

As explained by the expert weather blogger Mr Rajesh Kapadia at www.vagaries.com the dry spell on the west coast and most of the rest of the country is expected to continue till June end.

Goa is no exception and due to weak monsoon current has been experiencing hardly any rains and plenty of sunshine in the last two days.

Checkout the rain graph at Margao till 0830 hrs on June 24:

The area weighted rain graph for Goa prepared by IMD Goa for the same period matches the above:

The average rains in Goa are deficient by a whopping 24%. But this looks good compared to the figures for Konkan and Goa together which are deficient by almost 50%. And the country as a whole is not faring any better.

The dreaded 'D' word, meaning 'draught' is being talked of as a possibility this year.

But at the same time, there appears to be a possibility of revival of the Arabian Sea branch of Monsoon by June end.

Let's all pray that this prediction of rains in July comes true!

Heavy rains of June 19 help reduce the seasonal deficit

The heavy rains that lashed Goa on June 19, saw 5 rain stations recording more than 100 mm rainfall in 24 hrs ending 0830 hrs June 20, as below, including Sanguem in South Goa with 111.3 mm (not in the cumulative table below).

It also helped Valpoi at the base of the western Ghats, the rainfall topper every year, record the heaviest rainfall this year and climb up the charts to 5th rank!

As per the data of IMD at http://imdgoa.gov.in/images/weather_daily/swm.png the rainfall departure from normal is only -12%:

IMD Goa has started giving data for the whole state based on  area weighted average for South Goa and North Goa, which is a welcome move. Earlier (and even to some extent now) the rainfall recorded at Panaji was declared to be the rainfall for Goa state!

This chart of summary based on area weighted average illustrates the point:

It is seen that Goa received good rains for the week ending June 18 and the rains on June 19/20 would have further reduced the deficit!

However generally rains have taken a breather today on June 20 and Panjim recorded only 0.1 mm from 0830 to 1730 hrs!

It has to be seen if the weakened trough on west coast as explained in www.vagaries.in will persist and put brakes on further rainy days like the one on June 19! 

Update June 19, 2014 - Heavy Rains lash Goa!

As if to makeup for the delayed start and the shortfall of rainfall till date in June 2014, compaqred to June 2013, Heavy rains accompanied by gusty winds have been lashing Goa since around 9 am on June 19. Skies are heavily overcast.

Till 11.30 am Margao has recorded nearly 40 mm of rains in two hrs.

The rains are expected to continue for rest of the day, under the influence of the system as seen in this captured image from EUMETSAT at 11 am.

The rains recorded by IMD, Goa rain stations in 24 hrs till 0830 hrs on June 19, as well as the cummulative totals stationwise show that the rains in some rain stations along the coast are going to cross 500 mm mark (20 inches) today.

However, Panaji is still showing a shortfall of 111.2 mm till date.

As seen from this rain chart for Margao, the rains have been heavy intermittantly.

The High temps are hovering around 30 C and lows around 24 C.

The seas are very rough, beaches wet as can be expected but unfortunately laden with tar balls and lot of waste from the sea floor, thrown onto the beach by the churn of the sea.

June 2014 - Half way performance of Monsoon

We are already past the half way mark for June 2014.

The late onset on the S W Monsoons this year on June 11 and the subsequent delay for the rain bearing clouds to re-group after AS1, has certainly taken its toll, Result has been isolated heavy showers in the past 15 days and nearly 60% less than normal rainfall across the state.

The totals for the Month of June till 0830 hrs on June 16 are as under:

Today June 16 saw heavy downpours across the state after 2 pm:

Panaji recorded 58.6 mm from 0830 hrs to 1730 hrs.
 

June 15, 2014, Another 'Dry' Day : Wither Monsoons?

The rainfall recorded today Sunday June 15, 2014 from 8.30 am to 5.30 pm at Panaji was a paltry 1.1 mm.

Other stations in Goa fared no better.

Evening 6.30 pm at Benaulim Beach in South Goa, had great clear blue skies, low tide and very few people to enjoy the scene. Beautiful crepuscular rays in the west, were eye catching.

But - no sign of monsoon clouds!!

Though the Tropical Cyclone Nanauk has moved away and now dissipitated, the monsoon trough expected to strengthen and the cross winds expected to lead to cyclogenesis over Arabian Sea, let us hope that the monsoon will pick up in a day or two, as the rain bearing clouds arrive.

Till that time, make the best of the great weather, here in Goa!

Change in Blog name from Weather In Goa to Vagaries Goa!

It's a great day for your favorite blog about the weather in Goa!

From now onwards it will be a part of the popular weather blog "vagaries of the weather" and will be known as  "Vagaries Goa". Check it out here http://www.vagaries.in/2014/06/yet-another-edition-to-vagaries-group.html

The web address will remain for now as www.weatheringoa.blogspot.com and on Facebook it will be available at Facebook.com/VagariesGoa!

Being part of the Vagaries of the Weather  group will give it a much greater reach and hopefully all those who need to know of the weather in Goa, will be able to easily 'discover' it!

Vagaries of the Weather is the brain child of the renowned Mumbai based weather expert and enthusiast Rajesh Kapadia and is the 'watering hole' for weather aficionados from India and all over the world!

So here goes, Viva Vagaries of the weather, Viva Vagaries Goa!

The Monsoons in Goa so far (June 14) - Not looking good!

A delayed onset, weak monsoon current and isolated rains have characterized the s w monsoon progress in Goa as we reach mid June.

In 2013 the monsoon reached Goa in the night of June 3-4. This year IMD declared that the monsoons had crossed Goa on June 11, though alternate opinions were that the monsoons may have halted off the coast of Karnataka.

Since June 11, rains in Goa have been isolated, more on the coastal areas, rather than in the interior towards the western ghats, which is the normal in monsoons! According to IMD's own data Goa has received nearly 70% below normal rains till date. Of course it is too early in the monsoon, but is this a trend we are likely to see in coming days?

Today June 14 morning 7 am is characterized by clear blue skies, with not a hint of monsoon rain bearing clouds!

Now that Tropical Cyclone has dissipated off Muscat, hopefully cyclogenesis across Arabian Sea will accelerate and the cross winds will bring the monsoon clouds back to India's west coast, by Sunday June 15.

We will track its progress right here.

S W Monsoon enters Goa on June 11, Finally as per IMD estimate!

The Indian Meteorological Department in its Midday bulletin of June 11, has declared that the monsoon has crossed Goa and reached north Konkan upto Ratnagiri.

The sustained rains received all over Goa from 19:30 hrs on June 10 to 08:30 hrs on June 11 could have convinced IMD of the Monsoon arrival.

However June 11 itself was marked by isolated rains with periods of Sunshine and clear skies!

The Tropical depression in the Arabian Sea seems to have 'sucked away' some of the monsoon clouds thus delaying the advancement northwards.

Severe Weather Warning for Fishermen in Goa - June 9, 2014

Update: 6 pm June 9, 2014

The latest IMD release plots the Northern Limit of Monsoon at Karwar! Which means that the SW Monsoon is at our doorstep. IMD also forecasts heavy rains for Goa for June 10 and 11 (exceeding 70 mm)! The offshore low has brought overcast conditions with bursts of rainfall and gusts of wind, but also sunshine and clear skies as I look out west-southwest at 6.15 pm!

    ######  -------  ######  -------  #######   -------  #######

Posted: 2 pm June 9, 2014

On June 8, 2014 at 9 pm, IMD, Goa issued a Severe Weather Warning for Fishermen against venturing out into the Arabian Sea. The Warning read as under:

"Severe Weather Warning for Goa
IN VIEW OF ONSET PHASE OF SOUTHWEST MONSOON OVER SOUTH ARABIAN SEA AND KERALA, SQUALLY WEATHER WITH WIND SPEED 45 -50 KMPH TEMPORARILY REACHING 55 KMPH FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION IS LIKELY OFF GOA COAST AAA SEA WILL BE ROUGH WITH SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTRLY WAVES AAA FISHRMAN ARE ADIVSED NOT TO GO OUT IN THE SEA DURING NEXT 24 HRS."

This warning was the result of a Tropical Depression 95B off the coast of Goa, located on June 9 at 12.9N 67E as under:

The INSAT Image at 14:30 hrs June 9, 2014 is as under:

The system is moving westwards.

Under its influence:

1. Goa is experiencing gusty winds upto 30-40 kmh accompanied by occasional rains.

2. The monsoon trough is getting disturbed, and veering away from the Kerala, Karnataka, Goa coast into the Arabian Sea

As a result Monsoon onset into Goa may get delayed beyond June 10 by a day or two. Rains in Kerala will also decrease, till the monsoon trough is re-established by June 11.

This does appear to spell further delay in monsoon onset in Goa.

Monsoon arrives in Kerala - June 6. Goa on June 10?

S W monsoon has finally reached Kerala on June 6, albeit a week late.

It is expected to advance into coastal and S.I. Karnataka by Sunday June 8.

It normally takes 5-6 days for the monsoon to reach Goa from Kerala. However a low low expected to form off the coast of Kerala May speed up the monsoon arrival in Goa to June 10, still late by 4-5 days than usual.

The monsoon current has been weak so far, but the rains are expected to be normal for June.

Though the heat wave prevalent in Rajasthan and NW India has created low pressure of 998mb, the trough along the west coast is still weak, with high pressure of 1004mb, when ideally it should be 1008mb, to pull the monsoon winds northwards along the coast.

The gradient is expected to improve in coming days.

So get ready for the monsoon magic, finally.

May 2014 Temperature Trend for Goa

May 2014 was hot and humid. Pre- Monsoon showers lashed mot parts of the state intermittently bringing the temperatures down for a few days.

The first half of the month was hotter, with pre-monsoon showers in the second half bringing down the average temperatures, but the mercury soared again in the last 4-5 days of May, in line with the delay advancement of monsoons seen this year.

The salient features are as follows:

High Max - 36.3C on 4/5

High Min - 31.8C on 20/5

Low Max - 27.9C on May 29/30

Low Min - 22C - on 20/5

Monthly High Average - 34.3C

Monthly Low Average - 25.8C

Pre-monsoon showers recorded - 121.7 mm at Panaji

Maximum Rain recorded in 24 hrs on May 20 - 42.2 mm

The rains on May 20 made it the coolest day in May!

June 1, officially marks the begining of the Monsoon Season in Goa!

Lets get ready!