June 2016 - Monsoon performance over Goa

June 2016 saw Goa receiving the highest rainfall, amongst all other states in India, from both the pre monsoon and the actual South West Monsoons, even though the SW Monsoon was delayed and reached Goa only on June 10, officially.

Goa received area weighted average of 1215.9 mm (47.8 inches) of rainfall during this 30 day period, compared to 595.70 mm area weighted average rainfall for Kerala in the second place.

Thus Goa received nearly 35% above normal rains this year, which is also the highest total during June in the last 6 years.

Source: IMD, Goa Center

South Goa and North Goa also figure among the top five wettest districts of the country in June:

1. Udupi - 1322.00 mm

2. South Goa - 1307.80 mm

3. Sindhudurg - 1124.60 mm

4. North Goa - 1107.30 mm

5. Ratnagiri - 997.00 mm

(Source: The superb data presentation by GSB, at the website of the weather blog Vagaries of the Weather, which can be accessed by clicking on this link)

Mormugao and Dabolim centres topped with highest rain figures for June, mainly because of heavy pre - monsoon showers recorded. Surprisingly the the normally wettest place Valpoi received the lowest rainfall, as per IMD records.

Coastal areas of Goa, generally got better rainfall than the interior areas.

By June end SW Monsoon had covered almost the entire country. This year SW Monsoon is expected to be above normal for the country as a whole.

Of course we will continue to track the progress of the monsoons in the coming months!

Monsoon vigorous over Goa - Posted June 27, 2016

Though SW Monsoon arrived 4 days late on June 10, its performance in Goa so far has been above normal.

As per IMD records the top five centers with highest rainfall from June 1 till  8 am, June 27, 2016 are:

1. Mormugao - 1236.6 mm (48.69 inches)

2. Dabolim - 1056.7 mm (41.60 inches)

3. Canacona - 985.2 mm (38.79 inches)

4. Quepem - 954.0 mm (37.56 inches)

5. Panjim - 952.7 mm (37.51 inches)

Of course these figures include the pre - monsoon showers too, before June 10.

As seen above from the chart prepared by IMD Goa, Goa has so far received 17% above normal rainfall, mostly due the heavy rainfall last week.

The South West Monsoon has covered most of India, after initial lag, except N Gujarat, parts of Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, W UP and parts of NW, as seen in the monsoon progress chart from IMD, as of June 27, 2016.

Let's watch if the monsoon maintains its momentum, as it is forecast to do till October 2016!

Heavy Pre Monsoon Rains Lash Goa on June 6, 2016

Most parts of Goa experienced heavy pre monsoon showers on June 6, 2016 between 8 pm to 10:30 pm.

Under the influence of the UAC in the trough off coast, Goa is expected to receive regular pre monsoon showers from now till the onset of regular monsoon, around June 10.

However the trough is expected to further strengthen, and Goa may experience Monsoon rains as early as June 8th or 9th.

More details on the progress of monsoon at the Blog Vagaries of the Weather.

The rainfall recorded at various IMD Rain Gauges and Vagaries Rain Gauge at Aquem, Margao in 24 hrs ending 0830 hrs on June 7, 2016:

SWM 2016 Season in Goa, Pre Monsoon Start with a Bang - June 1, wettest day of the year recorded so far in 2016!

The First day of June was the wettest day of the month for Goa, as pre monsoon showers, accompanied by thunder and lightening, lashed many areas, specially South Goa. In nearly two hours of downpour well into the night.

 Mormugao received nearly 4 inches, Margao nearly 3 inches and Dabolim 2 inches of rain. Vagaries Goa Rain Gauge at Aquem, Margao also recorded 3 inches of rain.

The rainfall recorded at various centres across Goa, as per IMD, till 0830 hrs on June 2 is as follows:

The SW Monsoon arrival date for Goa this year is expected a little late on June 10th,

Click on this link to the earlier post that has all the details on the onset of Monsoon and its expected progress in Goa and elsewhere in June and July.

Pre monsoon showers are expected to continue with more frequency after June 4th, in Goa and along the Konkan coast.

S W Monsoon 2016 outlook for Goa - as per the Weather Blog "Vagaries of Weather"

Every year beginning mid April, the well known weather blogger Mr Rajesh Kapadia publishes in his blog "Vagaries of Weather" at http://www.vagaries.in, a series of posts aptly named as Monsoon Watch, analysing the synoptic conditions affecting the setting in of the S W Monssons over the Indian Sub Continent.

The fourth part of the series was posted on May 21 and gives a clearer picture of the onset of the monsoons. The article can be accessed here.

The main highlights of the monsoon onset this year are:

Synoptic situation as on May 21, 2015:
(1) Cyclonic storm ROANU in the Bay of Bengal, which brought copious rains to the East Coast, has weakened into a deep depression over Mizoram and is further expected to weaken into a well marked low pressure area over north east.
(2) The Bay of Bengal branch of the Monsoons has arrived in the Andamans on time
(3) Heat wave continues in the NW including Rajashan, Gujarat as also in Sindh in Pakistan, with temperatures crossing 50C. The seasonal low measuring 996/994 hPa is in place.
(4) Pre monsoon convective activity is seen over central and Penninsular India due to presence of wind discontinuity
(5) Equitorial Cross winds are now well organised. Somali Current is in place.
(6) El Nino conditions are weakening

Based on his experience and deep understanding of the various parameters affecting the onset and quantum of the S W Monssons, as detailed by him in his blog post, Mr  Rajesh Kapadia gives his estimate for the onset of monsoons and quantum of rains up to July 2016 as under:

Mr Kapadia expects that by June 15 S W Monsoon will advance from Kerala, throught upto Central India, into NE States and West Bengal. He expects Monsoon to advance into Central India and North India between June 20th and 30th.

For Goa the analysis presented in Vagaries of Weather would imply:

1. Onset of Monsoon by June 10, and

2. Slightly above Normal quantum of rain during June and July.

Thus the blog Vagaries of the Weather estimates Normal progress of the SWM and rainfall in all of sub continent regions!

Further, while weak El Nino conditions are persisting, there is a 50:50 chance, according to Mr Kapadia, of Neutral ENSO conditions as early as July. This would result, continuation of the Monsoon progress, without the normal mid season Monsoon Break!

For the record, while Vagaries of Weather estimates that Monsoon will reach Kerala by 4/5 June, IMD in its press release of May 15, forecasts the date of arrival of Monsoon at Kerala as June 7 +/- 4 days, ie any time between June 3 to June 11! Also the Preliminary forecast of IMD dated April 12, 2016 estimates the quantum this year as above normal (106% of LPA +/-5%).

SWM 2016 has just arrived in Indian territories! - Posted May 18, 2016

The much anticipated arrival of SW Monsoons is on schedule.

As per the latest mid day report of IMD on May 18, 2016, SW Monsoon has entered the Indian territories of South Andaman Sea and Nicobarese Islands.

 

From the IMD Mid day report :

"The Southwest Monsoon has advanced into some parts of southeast Bay of Bengal, entire south Andaman Sea and Nicobar Islands and someparts of north Andaman Sea today, the 18th May 2016. The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) passes through Lat. 5°N/ Long.86°E, Lat. 8°N/ Long 87° E Hut Bay and Lat. 12°N / Long. 99° E. Also conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some more parts of south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Islands and remaining parts of north Andaman Sea during next 3 to 4 days"

Though the normal arrival of SW Monsoon on West coast of Kerala is on June 1 and in Goa around June 5, IMD had forecast a delay of about a week in its press release of May 15th.

Climatological conditions over the next week, will determine if the forecast is correct or if the monsoons are on time this year!

Overcast conditions and thunder storms. First substantial pre Monsoon rains in Goa - Posted May 16, 2016

Goa has seen some thunderstorm activity over the weekend and continuing into Monday 16, 2016.

On Friday May 13 evening and Saturday May 14 late night, rains with thunder were reported mainly from South Goa, with Sanguem, Quepem and Margao recording most of the rains. On Sunday May 15, rains with thunder storm were reported from Valpoi and Ponda.

Vagaries Goa Rain Gauge at Margao, recorded 8 mm and 4 mm respectively in 24 hours ending 0830 hrs on May 14 and May 15.

These are the first  substantial pre-monsoon rains in Goa.

Skies have remained overcast and more rains are expected under the influence of the Deep Depression BB1 in the Bay of Bengal. BB1 is expected to move N/NW as of May 16.

Under its influence, heavy rainfall is forecast for Chennai and much of South India.

West coast of India from Kerala upto Goa will also get rains under influence from tise system, from Monday May 16 to Thursday19.