The IMD released cumulative rainfall map for India from June 1 to August 15, 2015, presents a stark picture of the failure of the Arabian Sea branch of SW Monsoons this year, badly affecting the quantum of rainfall received on the West Coast of India. The red areas in the map indicate departure from normal from -20 % to -59%.
Goa, on the west coast of India, is no exception, having so far received just 79% of the normal Monsoon rains, leaving a departure from normal of -21%.
Continuing the deficient trend seen in July 2015 as detailed in this post, the rains in the first 15 days of August were lower by -17%.
Against normal rainfall of 2434 mm during June 1 and August 15, Goa has received only 1934 mm area weighted average rainfall, leading to this -21% deficiency. In the year 2014 during the same period, the deficiency was -15%.
Interestingly, comparison between rainfall received till August 15th during 2014 and 2015 throws up some interesting facts:
It can be seen that Valpoi, Sanguem, Sankhali, Canacona, Pernem and Margao have contributed substantially to the reduced area weighted average rainfall for Goa during 2015, compared to 2014. While rainfall in Ponda, Old Goa, Mapusa, Panaji, Dabolim and Mormugao has marginally increased or remained almost same.
This year, while it has rained everyday in the first 15 days of August, there have been just 2 days with above normal rains.
As a result the departure from normal which was -21% at the end of July 2015, has remained at that level.
It is being discussed widely in the weather forums on the web, that the El Nino phenomenon is now developed and would leave its mark in the rest of the Monsoon season in India.
As things stand today and analysed in this post at the blog The Vagaries of the Weather, the scenario is not looking good.
What happens over the next 45 days, will determine if we will have a deficient Monsoon season (-20% to -59%) or a normal monsoon season (+19% to -19%) this year!
Continuing the deficient trend seen in July 2015 as detailed in this post, the rains in the first 15 days of August were lower by -17%.
Interestingly, comparison between rainfall received till August 15th during 2014 and 2015 throws up some interesting facts:
It can be seen that Valpoi, Sanguem, Sankhali, Canacona, Pernem and Margao have contributed substantially to the reduced area weighted average rainfall for Goa during 2015, compared to 2014. While rainfall in Ponda, Old Goa, Mapusa, Panaji, Dabolim and Mormugao has marginally increased or remained almost same.
This year, while it has rained everyday in the first 15 days of August, there have been just 2 days with above normal rains.
As a result the departure from normal which was -21% at the end of July 2015, has remained at that level.
It is being discussed widely in the weather forums on the web, that the El Nino phenomenon is now developed and would leave its mark in the rest of the Monsoon season in India.
As things stand today and analysed in this post at the blog The Vagaries of the Weather, the scenario is not looking good.
What happens over the next 45 days, will determine if we will have a deficient Monsoon season (-20% to -59%) or a normal monsoon season (+19% to -19%) this year!
