Posted Thursday May 21, 2015 - Hot and humid conditions continue with chance of thunderstorm

Updated May 22, 2015:

May 22, 2015 - Panaji Goa records 28.7C minimum temperature (2C above normal), which is a recent record for many months. In 2014 the highest minimum recorded in May was 27.9C.

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Posted Thursday May 21, 2015

Monday 18th to Wednesday 20th May were hot, humid and dry all over Goa, with partly overcast skies in the evenings. Isolated light precipitation and traces of rain was reported from some areas. Temperatures remained in the range of High around 34C and lows around 27C, with humidity around 80% RH in the early mornings.

Thursday May 21, recorded low of 28C which is the highest recorded this month so far.

Daily Temperature Chart for May '15

The average temperatures have been substantially higher in May '15 compared to April '15

The highest temperature recorded in India on May 20 was at Chandrapur (Vidarbha) at 47.4C. Wardha recorded 47.2C and Nagpur 47C. Heat wave conditions will continue to prevail over Vidarbha, Telangana and West MP (as per Vagaries of Weather)

Sultry and partly cloudy conditions are expected to continue in Goa for the next few days with light drizzle over the weekend. Day temperatures will be around 35C and Lows will be around 27-29C.

S W Monsoon 2015 outlook for Goa - as per the Weather Blog "Vagaries of Weather"

Every year beginning mid April, the well known weather blogger Mr Rajesh Kapadia publishes in his blog "Vagaries of Weather" at http://www.vagaries.in, a series of posts aptly named as Monsoon Watch, analysing the synoptic conditions affecting the setting in of the S W Monssons over the Indian Sub Continent.

The fourth part of the series was posted on May 17 and gives a clearer picture of the onset of the monsoons. The article can be accessed here.

The main highlights of the monsoon onset this year according to Vagaries of Weather are reproduced below:

Synoptic Situation as on May 17, 2015:
(1) South West Monsoon advances into South Andamans
(2) Season's first  low pressure area in Arabian Sea Branch formed off Kerala Coast and neighbourhood on 15th
(3) Rajasthan and Gujarat in India and Sindh and Balochistan in  Pakistan start heating up ..and reach 49c (Pakistan)
(4) Pre-monsoon convective activity increased over central and peninsular India due to presence of wind discontinuity

Based on his experience and deep understanding of the various parameters affecting the onset and quantum of the S W Monssons, as detailed by him in his blog post, Mr  Rajesh Kapadia gives his estimate for the onset of monsoons and quantum of rains up to July 2015 as under:

In his blog Mr Kapadia also mentions the 50:50 chance of full blown El Niño in July - August this year, resulting in possible break in monsoon and reduced precipitation in the second half of Monsoon.

For Goa the analysis presented in Vagaries of Weather would imply:

1. Onset of Monsoon by June 9, and

2. Normal quantum of rain during June and July.

For the record, while Vagaries of Weather estimates that Monsoon will reach Kerala by 3/4 June, IMD in its press release of May 14, forecasts the date of arrival of Monsoon at Kerala as May 30 +/- 4 days, ie any time from May 26 to June 3! Also the Preliminary forecast of IMD dated April 22, 2015 estimates the quantum this year as below normal (93% of LPA).

Expected Onset Dates and Actual Advance of SWM 2015 as per IMD (18-05-2015)

Being the premier meteorological body in India, one would have expected from IMD, a more precise date for onset of Monsoon over Kerala than the 8 day window! Normally Monsoon reaches Goa one week after reaching Kerala.

The weather in Goa over next week is expected to remain hot and humid, with few isolated showers accompanied by thunder in the evenings, mostly towards the interior. Monday/ Tuesday/ Wednesday the offshore trough will weaken off Goa coast, hence there will be decrease in rains. After Thursday a slight increase in thundershowers is expected.

Maximum temperatures would be restricted to 34 - 35 C, due to sea winds blowing from the west, but with heat index of 40 - 42 C due to the high humidity. This effect would be more pronounced in the coastal belt of Goa, while interior areas of Goa could get hotter as one moves away from the coast. Alternately mornings would be cooler towards the interior forest and mountain areas than the exposed coastal belt.Minimum temperatures would be around 27C. Expect lot of Sunshine with development of Cumulus Clouds over the next week.

Overcast Skies and rains bring June like weather in Mid May 2015

Goa has been experiencing overcast skies and isolated intermittent rains since May 13. These conditions are expected to continue for at least two more days.

This weather is under the influence of the upper air cyclonic circulation which began over Lakshadweep region and which has now travelled as a cyclonic circulation Invest 92B , off the coast of Kerala proceeding in NW direction.

The following images give its location as of today:

Under its influence scattered to isolated rainfall occurred at almost all places in Goa on May 13 and 14, particularly in late afternoon, evening, night and early morning. Following amounts of rainfall were recorded at various centres:

The humidity level at 0830 hrs on May 14 was 94% RH with temperature at 28C. This resulted in heat index of 34.5C!

Similar conditions are expected to prevail over May 15, 16, 17. For additional details check the Blog Vagaries of Weather at http://www.vagaries.in 

May 5, 2015 - Thunderstorms bring first May Showers to Goa

Most areas in Goa were lashed with localized thunderstorms bringing heavy rains between 9:30 pm and 10:30 pm on May 5.

Day temperatures that touched 35.5C accompanied by humidity in High 80s, led to development of dark cumulonimbus clouds accompanied by strong gusts, thunder and lightening later in the evening.

The IMD recorded following rainfall in 24 hrs ending 0830 hrs on May 6; most of which was recorded between 21:30 and 22:30 hrs on May 5:

Mapusa     7.6 mm

Pernem     12.8 mm

Panaji        25.0 mm

Old Goa     33.0 mm

Sanquelim  36.6 mm

Valpoi          18.6 mm

Canacona     1.4 mm

Dabolim       32.6 mm

Mormugao   26.4 mm

Quepem       45.2 mm

Sanguem      12.2 mm

Margao         36.2 mm

Vagaries Goa rain gauge at Margao recorded 32 mm during the same period.

The rains brought down the minimum temperature recorded on May 6 to 21.5C, 5 degrees below normal!

The thunderstorms are part of the pre monsoon developments and Goa is expected to experience a few more of these localized events throughout Month of May.

Besides Goa, May 5 also witnessed heavy thunderstorm activity over South interior and Western Maharashtra and North Interior Karnataka as seen in this satellite image at 2200 hrs on May 5.

April 2015 - Weather Summary - Summer heat and humidity firmly in place

Summer heat which began to make its presence felt towards the end of March, truly ruled in April.

April 2015 recorded peak average maximum and minimum temperatures in the last 6 months and more. Though the maximum temperatures never crossed 36C the heat index was high due to stifling humidity of 80%RH and above. Similarly Minimum temperatures touched 28.2C once on April 23rd and again on April 30th with humidity of above 80% RH making mornings hot and humid.

Goa experienced sporadic convectional rains in the later half of April, with Margao recording 53 mm (2 inches) of rains with thunder and lightening in a 75 min downpour on the night of April 23rd. Sanguem, Canacona, Pernem also received isolated heavy downpours.

Other salient features of April 2015 were as under:

As conditions for onset of South West Monsoon begin to develop in the sub continent, Goa too is going to witness pre monsoon showers and hot and sultry weather in May.

But one has to endure a little pain for the joys that the Monsoons bring from June onwards. You do agree don't you?