Goa July 2014 Rainfall Analysis - Helping to reduce the Deficiency

At the beginning of July 2014, Goa had a Seasonal Rainfall deficiency of whopping -49%. See the June 2014 analysis post here.

But the revival of the rains in July and the solid performance throughout the month, has helped to reduce the deficit significantly to just -17% as on July 31, 2014

While rains in June were mainly confined to the coastal areas, Valpoi at the base of the Western Ghats received the maximum rainfall in July 2014 of 1842.9 mm, helping it to reclaim the title of the wettest place in Goa with seasonal cumulative till July 31, 2014 of  2311.5 mm, the only station to record more than 2000 mm so far.

Margao again showed that it gets the most rains in the coastal area by recording 1323.8 mm in July taking its seasonal total so far to 1958 mm at second place.

The top five seasonal toppers so far are as follows:

Comparison of rainfall records for 2013 and 2014 for top five in inches, (Sankhali data for July '13 not available):

A Google Earth perspective for rainfall distribution across Goa:

The month of July again emphasised its importance in the monsoon season, with most stations getting nearly three times the rain they received in June!

It is worth looking at the rainfall data of Panaji, where IMD Goa center is located. The figures for daily rainfall reported in the media as rainfall received in Goa, actually refer to Panaji records. And as seen above Panaji hardly represents the distribution of rainfall across Goa! But just for the record the historical normal Seasonal cumulative for Panaji and the performance of monsoon in 2013 and 2014 is as under:

As usual Margao being my home town gets special treatment here. The daily rainfall chart below shows that it rained on all days in July except on July 1!

The highest rainfall in 24 hrs was recorded as of 0830 on July 15. There was brief respite in the last week with lots of sunshine, followed by another spell of 24 hrs of heavy rains ending 0830 on July 31 with Margao recording 82.7 mm. But the maximum was recorded, yes you guessed it, at Valpoi at 184.3 mm.

The rains in July brought down the average temperatures too:

Average Max 29.22C
Average Min 23.75C

High Max Temp 33C on July 1
Low Max Temp 25.9C on July 6

High Min Temp 25.8C on July 1
Low Min Temp 21.8C on July 12 and 13

All eyes now on August and where the rainfall deficiency is headed this season!

Rainfall Prospects for Goa for the weekend and rest of July - posted July 26, 2014

Update July 29: As forecast monsoon activity has been extremely subdued since saturday with Margao recording 4.1 mm, 6.4 mm and 9.3 mm in 24 hrs ending 0830 hrs on July 27, 28 and 29 respectively. Rainfall is expected to pick up on Wednesday/ Thursday.

All forecasts for Goa for Saturday 26, Sunday 27 and then the rest of July till 30th are indicating scattered rains, with plenty of sunshine and isolated short heavy downpours totaling 15-25 mm

 Per day along the coast and 25-35 mm per day in the interiors.

The latest post on All India weather by weather blogger Mr Rajesh Kapadia at www.vagaries.in as well as IMD NWP charts, IGES/COLA forecasts all paint the same picture.

The reduction in rains along the west coast is due to the weakened monsoon trough in the Arabian Sea off the coast.

The activity is mostly near Orrisa coast and along the northern monsoon axis.

It is now certain that Goa will end July with a seasonal deficiency of around 20%, up from deficiency of 47% at June end.

The monsoon activity along west coast including Goa is expected to pick up from July 31 into August. 

We'll wait and see what August has in store!

Valpoi Reclaims the title of the Wettest Place in Goa - July 23, 2014

July 22, 2014 saw a revival of renewed vigorous activity of monsoon in Goa, after a week of rains in the region of 15 - 30 mm per day.

July 22, 2014 also saw Valpoi leapfrogging over Margao to record the highest cumulative seasonal rainfall in Goa till date. At 0830 hrs on July 23, 2014, Valpoi had recorded 71.69 inches ( 1820.9 mm) of seasonal rainfall compared to 68.24 inches ( 1733.3 mm) for Margao.

However as the table below shows, the rainfall has been far below par compared to 2013:

South Goa, where Margao is situated about 5 kms from the coast has seen better rainfall than North Goa this year. Valpoi, situated at the base of the Western Ghats in North Goa has only seen an increase in rainfall after second week of July 2014. This has helped to bring down the seasonal Area Weighted  rainfall deficiency for Goa to -19% till July 23, 2014, as seen from the table below from IMD Goa:

The top 5 Rain Stations in Goa till July 23, 2014 are Valpoi, Margao, Sanguem, Canacona and Sanquelim all having recorded more than 1500 mm so far:

The onset of the monsoon this year on June 11 was later than normal and the overall deficiency for Goa till June 30 was nearly -47%. The good rains in July, is what has contributed to bring down the deficiency to -19%. The overall seasonal rainfall till July 23 is as below:

And for the month of July 2014 till date:

Margao has been a surprise this year recording rainfall daily as can be seen here

The 800 hPa SW winds are strong. The rains are expected to keep up the momentum for next 2 days and rainfall in the region 30 - 60 mm per day could be recorded.

Dam Water Levels in Goa - Update 21 July, 2014

The month of July has seen the monsoons very active across the state with rainfall bringing down the deficit from around 47% at the end of June to below 20% by third week of July.

It has also meant that the five dams and reservoirs in Goa are filling up fast.

Though all the dams still show water levels a tide short of FRL as of July 17, 2014 as per the latest available data, they are expected to reach full capacity in the coming weeks.

However, all the dams were running full by this time last as can be seen from this table:

The water level in the five Dams is as follows:

Sr        Dam              Capacity mcm     Full Reservoir Level     Level on 17/7/14  26/07/13
                          (million  cubic meters)        (FRL) Meters                                        Meters

1.    SELAULIM            234.36                       41.15                          39.80                           42.42

2.    ANJUNEM              44.83                        93.20                         76.07                           92.44

3.    CHAPOLI                11.20                        38.75                         34.98                           38.24

4.   AMTHANE                 5.97                        50.25                         47.19                           50.25

5.   PANCHWADI            4.47                         26.12                         26.00                          26.20

Mid July 2014 - Performance of S W Monsoons in Goa

The S W Monsoons have performed extremely well in Goa in July 2014.

While it has rained everyday of the month, the current spell which started on July 10 has produced most of the rains of the month.

Margao has received the most rains in July till 15th amounting to 883.7 mm ( 34.79 inches). This has also helped Margao to come on top as the wettest place in Goa with cumulative seasonal rainfall at 1517.9 mm (59.76 inches).

Rainfall in inches from July 1 to July 15, 2014 in Table 1.

Table 1

Cummulative Seasonal rainfall from June 1 to July 15, 2014 in Table 2

Table 2

A Google Earth Perspective of the rains so far:

The rains in July have helped to reduce the Seasonal deficiency from around 50% June end to nearly 23% by July 15.

Against Area Weighted Average Normal Seasonal Rainfall of 1419.6 mm, Goa has received actual 1100.8 mm, showing deficient rains of 23%. (courtesy IMD Goa)

Margao FIRST to cross 50 inches of Rain in Goa this Season!

Margao has recorded 1279.5 mm of rainfall till 0830 hrs on July 13, 2014, becoming the first city in Goa to cross 50 inches of rainfall!

Following towns have recorded rainfall more than 1000 mm so far this season since June 2014:

Margao has received more rains in the month of July till 13th than the rains received in the entire month of June 2014.

Infact Margao received 54.8% of the entire rainfall it has received so far in July in Just four day!

The daily record of Rainfall at Margao is recorded here

The Normal Seasonal Rainfall till July 31 is 70 inches.

Thus Margao has so far received 71% of its normal rains.

This is also true for Goa state as a whole.

From a deficit of 47% just a few days back, the seasonal deficit has now reduced to 30%.

There are very good chances of this deficit coming down further, as the trough off Goa's coast is going to remain strong, bringing rainfall in the range of 30-60 mm daily over the next few days.

Will Margao claim the prize of the wettest place in Goa this season from Valpoi?

Watch this space!!

A wet outlook for the week - posted July 9

UPDATE JULY 10 - Heavy rains were recorded at all the rain stations in Goa in 24 hrs till 0830 hrs on July 10. Mapusa 118.4 mm, Mormugao 116.3 mm, Dabolim 114.6 mm each received maximum rainfall in 24 hrs so far this season. Other notable were Panaji 101.4 mm and Margao 75 mm. MARGAO REACHED THE MILESTONE OF 1000.5 MM , being the highest seasonal total rainfall till July 10 in the state!

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The rains have finally found a toehold again in Goa after days of isolated showers and long dry gaps!

During the 24 hrs ending 0830 hrs July 9, most of the rain stations got rainfall in the range of 10 - 30 mm.

Canacona got maximum at 61.6 mm followed by Mormugao with 42.2 mm.

The skies are heavily overcast and heavy showers are lashing almost all parts of Goa since morning of July 9.

Panjim has recorded nearly 50 mm rainfall in 7 hrs till 1530 hrs, and there is no sign of it stopping soon!

This spell of rain is for long term is clear from the strengthening of the trough off Goa's coast as well as the increase in the speed of the rain bearing cross winds. The conditions are favorable for moderate to heavy rains for rest of the week.

Paddy cultivation work is in full swing and nature at its best!

Prospects for the weekend July 5 and July 6

Detailed outlook for India and for various regions has been posted by weather guru Rajesh Kapadia at http://www.vagaries.in

He has forecast decreasing rains for Konkan and Goa as per the charts reproduced here:

After putting a great show on July 3, when Panjim recorded 49 mm and Margao recorded 93.6 mm in 24 hrs ending 0830 on July 4, the rains sputtered on July 4 again!

From 0830 hrs to 1730 hrs on July 4, Panjim recorded only 5.9 mm and Margao 6 mm (unofficial).

The rains of July 3 were the result of the UAC at 500 hPa of the coast of Konkan, which also brought record rains to Mumbai and other areas on the coast.

The revival of monsoons in the true sense and style of 'rains in Goa', seems still a few days ahead!

Goa June 2014 Rainfall Analysis - Driest June in 21 years!

June 2014 has entered the record books with the third lowest rainfall recorded in the month since 1971, whence IMD Goa started systematically recording the rainfall data for Panaji. Earlier data was maintained at Mumbai or Pune and unfortunately is not easily available at Goa.

Panaji recorded just 460.8 mm of rainfall in June 2014 as against a normal of 889.8 mm, a whopping shortfall of 48%. The lowest rainfall of 401.1 mm was recorded at Panaji in 1993 and 447.2 mm in 1991. In 2013 Panaji had recorded 697 mm.

However rainfall recorded at Panaji doesn't reflect the rainfall received in other parts of Goa.

From 2014 onwards, IMD Goa has started keeping records for Goa taking Area Weighted Averages for North Goa and South Goa and arriving at a much better rainfall picture for the state.

Accordingly as of 0830 hrs on July 1, 2014 the area weighted Rainfall for Goa from June 1, 2014 was 487 mm against a normal of 953 mm, a shortfall of 49%!

The monsoon onset was delayed and officially the SW Monsoons set in Goa on June 11 this year. Over the next 13 days the rains were good but for the development of the cyclone Na Nauk in the Arabian Sea off the coast of Goa, which veered towards Oman. It took with it the moisture over Arabian Sea and disturbed the wind pattern leading to the dry period which continues into July 2014.

The daily rainfall recorded at Margao - Goa, is typical of the pattern experienced this year.

The heaviest rains were recorded on June 17 and June 20 when Margao recorded 143.8 mm and 110.3 mm respectively. But zero rainfall was recorded on 12 days, including continuously since June 25 till date.

IMD records rainfall at thirteen rain stations spread all over Goa from Pernem in the North to Canacona in the South and Valpoi in the west at the base of the Western Ghats. From these Canacona has topped the list with maximum rainfall in June 2014 at 671.2 mm , a whopping 210.4 mm more than Panaji, and the difference being also more than the entire rainfall for June for most of the cities and towns of north Konkan including Mumbai! Margao came close second with 634.2 mm, which is surprising considering that it is just 34 km from Panaji with similar terrain! Sanguem in the South completed the troika of towns with rainfall more than 600 mm! At the bottom, Mapusa came last with just 366.8 mm rainfall in June, nearly 100 mm lower than Panaji just 15 kms away!

Goa receives most of its rains in July and with the monsoon expected to revive in Goa in the first week of July, let's hope the impact of the deficient rains of June is reduced!

Interesting to watch will be the battle of numbers to finish on top between Margao and Panjim and between Valpoi, Canacona and Sanguem!

Anybody for predicting the outcome?

Keep watching this blog for the results!!