SW Monsoon arrival dates for Goa - June 5

The normal SW Monsoon arrival date in Goa is June 5.

This year the monsoons are expected to reach Goa around June 5 -7,

The monsoon has already reached Southern Andaman on May 17 and are expected to completely cover the islands by May 20.

The pre monsoon showers have started in Goa.

Yesterday May 17, saw areas  closer to Ghats like Valpoi, Sanquelim, Usgaon as far as Ponda saw moderate to heavy downpours in late afternoon accompanied by thunder and lightening. Today early morning saw overcast skies and light rains many coastal areas.

Next few days would see overcast conditions in late afternoon and early mornings. But days would be clear with high humidity and temps at 33-35 C.

Update May 7, 2014 - Chances of torrential Rain for the weekend decrease

The tropical Depression Invest 91B has moved Northwards to 8.1N 78E and winds have slowed down to 35 kph, compared to May 6.

The NW corner of the system is showing heavy rains affecting Kerala coast and coast of S. Karnataka.

Further movement northwards is being prevented by an upper trough and a high ressure ridge.

The system is expected to move inland into S. Karnataka by Wednesday May 7 evening and Thursday and bring rains to Karnataka coast.

Parts of Goa will get rains on Wednesday evening and Thursday May 8, after which the system is expected to fizzle out.

Saturday and Sunday May 9 and 10, should see return of clear weather back in Goa with highs of 33-34 C and lows of 25-26 C and humidity in rnge of 70 - 80 %RH.

The Invest B91 on May 7 is as below:

Torrential Rains in Goa on May 8, 9 and 10?

Posted on May 6, 2:30 pm

NEXT UPDATE May 7 Morning

Torrential Rains are being forecast for Goa by weather experts http://www.vagaries.in as well as other weather models.

The cause for this speculation is the development of a low pressure depression, South west of Colombo Sri Lanka, which is consolidating into a Tropical Storm and travelling N, N-W.

The IMD Mid Day Report for May 6, 2014 states that " The low pressure area over comorin area and neighbourhood  has  now become well marked low pressure area  with associated upper air cyclonic circulation extending upto mid tropospheric levels. It is likely to move northwest wards and would concentrated into a depression by tomorrow".

The satellite images for May 6 confirm the development.

The system identified as Tropical Depression Invest 91B is currently located at 6.3N 78E, with speeds of 46 kmh, rapidly developing into a Tropical Storm and moving N N-W.

 

Several Parts of Southern TN and Kerala are getting torrential rains since yesterday under its influence.

 

As it travels N N-W into the Arabian Sea and crosses inland into southern coastal Karnataka, South Interior Karnataka, Coastal Karnataka and South Goa are forecast to experience torrential rains on Thursday 8, Friday 9, tapering on Saturday 10th May.

 

The IGES/COLA GFS Forecast Meteogram f or Goa indicates low cloud cover, bringing upto 12-15 mm of rains on May 9.

 

The situation can off course change depending on the wind direction, and movement of the developing storm.



 

April Temperature Trend for Goa

April 2014 was hot and sultry, marked with rising lows and high humidity.

The temperature stats are as under:

High Max	35.8 C	Apr-03
Low Max	32.8 C	Apr-01
High Min	28.1 C	Apr-28
Low Min	21.8 C	Apr-13
Average Max Month		34.3 C
Average Min Month		25.5 C
First Half April '14
Average Max		34.1 C
Average Min		24.5 C

Second Half April '14

Average Max          34.3 C

Average Min           26.5 C

Precipitation recorded (by IMD Goa) - 1.7 mm on April 26

A severe squall with hails and rains struck Satari Taluka for nearly 2 hrs on April 4, leaving much damage behind. Details as posted in this blog post

The second half of April saw significantly higher low temperatures and humidity, resulting in mild isolated showers in the state. In fact almost the whole of India saw lows around 25 C and above as seen in the figure below:

The rising temperatures in the second half are set to continue to rise into May, setting the scene hopefully, for advancement of SW Monsoon into Goa in early June. Let's wait and see!