Top 24 hrs rainfall figures in Goa from 25th to 29th September

Rainfall has been active over Goa in the week just ended.

The following are the daily maximum rains recorded in Goa in 24 hr period ending 8:30 am for each day from September 25 to 29:

Sept 25 - 20.2 mm at Pernem

Sept 26 - 52.8 mm at Canacona

Sept 27 - 75.4 mm at Canacona

Sept 28 - 12.6 mm at Dabolim

Sept 29 - 20.1 mm at Margao

These rains are typically 'hit or miss' rains!

Today September 30, Panaji recorded 16.9 mm in 9 hours from 8:30 am to 5:30 pm, and interior areas reached much heavier downpours.

The withdrawal of monsoon from NW India has halted and the meteorological circles are buzzing with excitement of witnessing the rare phenomenon of the monsoon re - appearing in the withdrawn areas!

It appears that monsoon will persist with various degrees of intensities till after The festival of Navratri!

Monsoon revival?

With the low over Gujarat stagnating and strengthening at higher altitudes as UAC, it has not only brought massive rains in Gajarat, but has activated the trough along the west coast from Saurashtra to Goa.

This has resulted in clouding in skies over Goa and west blowing winds bringing in rains since yesterday ( 25th) evening, putting rest to our 'hopes' of good weather for the weekend!

The weather prospects in Goa over the next two days depends on the development of the low over Gujarat. Till it fizzles out, it will continue to pull moisture from the Arabian Sea as well as keep the west coast trough activated.

At present this appears the most likely scenario.

Outlook for rest of the week

The phase of continuous daily rains seen from September 16 to 24, is definiitely over!

The low which is still persisting over Gujarat, brought plenty of rains to north Konkan, but Goa was largely spared.

The rains recorded at Margao during last week were:

Sept 16 - 3.1 mm

Sept 17 - 30 mm

Sept 18 - 92.7 mm

Sept 19 - 10.5 mm

Sept 20 - 85.6 mm

Sept 21 - 86.8 mm

Sept 22 - 9 mm

Sept 23 - 12.4 mm

Sept 24 - 20.5 mm

Expect clear blue skies and lot of sunshine during day time rest of the week.

Max day temp could reach 30/31C and early mornings at 23/24C. Humidity would remain in 80-90% range. Occasion mild drizzle should bring relief. Rains could be less than 5 mm per day, mostly towards the interiors.

A perfect time to savor the natural beauty of Goa!

Rains linger on Sunday September 22

With a low over central India and another in east Gujarat stalled for the moment, the trough on the west coast has become strong again, bringing rain all along the west coast of India.

What this means for Goa is that he rains which were scant on Saturday will pick up again on Sunday.

The winds wil be blowing from the west bringing rains all along the west coast as forecast in models above.

The rains are expected to ease by Sunday night.

Heavy Rains as forecast - Expected to ease over the weekend

Heavy rains lashed all parts of Goa from evening of September 19 to morning of September 20, as expected. The rainfall recorded during 24 hrs till 08:30 hrs on Friday morning was as under:

1. Margao - 86 mm

2. Panaji - 54 mm

3. Valpoi - 48 mm

Most of this rain was recorded in the 10 hours between 9:30 pm on 19th to 7:30 am on 20th.

The rains are expected to ease after Friday over the weekend.

For those interested in numbers, the total rainfall recorded from June 1 till September 20 at rain stations across Goa is as below:

 

While Valpoi is nearing 200 inches, Panaji has just crossed 100 inches! Margao is nearly 125 inches, though Dabolim and Murmagao are stiil to reach the century mark.

 

 

Margao had 10 'dry' days in September so far. Just 5 days of significant rains as can be seen from the chart below:

 

 

 

Are we seeing the last gasp of a retreating monsoon? Well, while monsson retreat has started from NW India, normally the retreat from Goa is after October 1.

 

But looking at the dim prospects of significant rains in the balance part of September, we may indeed be seeing the last leg of the monsoon this year!



 

Heavy Rain Alert!

Due to persisting strong monsoon trough off the west coast, heavy rains are predicted for Goa and South Konkan by various weather models from September 19 to 21. Rains could be heavier towards the ghats.

Also check out this post by Rajesh Kapadia in his blog 'vagaries of the weather' http://rajesh26.blogspot.in/2013/09/posted-on-monday16th-night-monsoon-axis.html

A wet week ahead?

The latest data put out by IMD for the week September 5 - 11, 2013 indicates deficient rains in Goa and Konkan.

However this scenario is expected to change for the week beginning September 16, as the trough off the west coast has become active again.

The skies will remain overcast and rains will be light and intermittent.

A low pressure area may develop off Goa coast according to some models.

This situation is expected to bring more rains mid week.

However, we will have to wait and see, if these rains are enough to keep the total seasonal rains in the normal range, or inspite of the heavy rains of July we are destined to end the monsoon season with slightly deficient rains!