March 2015 Weather Summary - A Roller Coaster Ride!

Month of March 2015 saw it all - Thunder Storms with rains, followed by cool morning and then Hot days and to end the month - cloudy, hot and humid mornings too!

March 1 saw heavy rains throughout the state due to the trough associated with the Western Disturbance advancing from Afghanistan and Pakistan as explained in THIS post.

Vagaries Goa Rain Gauge at Margao recorded 49 mm on March 1 and 2 mm on March 2, bringing the total rainfall in March to a record 51 mm. Ponda (IMD) recorded the highest at 64.2 mm. Again ligh scattered rainfall was recorded in many parts of Goa around 26th March.

This made March 2015 one of the wettest months in the records maintained by IMD, Goa.

These rains on March 1 and 2 brought down the temperatures considerably, and for a few days the day temperatures touched max 31C and early mornings were pleasant at below 20C! But then the heat and the humidity took charge and lows climbed steadily till they were around 27C towards end March, highs remained steady at around 34C.

March heat is now matching the October heat!!

The following Charts give a picture of the temperature trends:

Feels like the summer truly set in March itself and we can expect this trend to continue in April and May.

March 2, 2015 Update - Rains recede

The rains in Goa under the influence of the current weather system in Central Arabian Sea, which began with thunderstorm in the early hours of March 1, and which were covered in this post, continued to provide isolated rains in many parts of Goa particularly on 1st evening. The maximum Day temperature recorded at Panaji on March 1, came down to 30.6C compared to 32.3C on Feb 28!

Following rainfall amounts were recorded by various IMD rain centres across Goa:

However resumption of NW and W winds heralds sunny and clear skies over Goa, again from March 2 onwards as seen in the IR satellite image below

Will the summer onset be far behind now?

Heavy Rains Lash Goa on March 1, 2015!

Goa was lashed by thunderstorm in the early morning hours of March 1, 2015! Rain accompanied by thunder and lightening was reported from all the areas in Goa. It led to collapse of Electriacl supply from Maharashtra Grid supply plunging Goa into total darkness!

Vagaries Goa rain Gauge at Margao recorded 49 mm (2 inches) of rainfall between 0315 hrs to 0600 hrs.

As per IMD Meteorological Analysis from their website http://www.imd.gov.in

♦ The Western Disturbance as an upper air cyclonic circulation over Afghanistan & adjoining Pakistan extending upto 3.1 km above mean sea level persists with a trough aloft roughly along Longitude 63.0°E and north of Latitude 15.0°N. Due to deepening of the westerly trough into central Arabian sea, wind confluence is continuing over central India and neighbourhood.

♦ The induced upper air cyclonic circulation over south Rajasthan & adjoining Gujarat extending upto 2.1 km above mean sea level persists.

♦ The upper air trough from Bihar to south Chhattisgarh has become less marked, however an upper air cyclonic circulation lies over north Chhattisgarh & adjoining East Madhya Pradesh and extends upto 1.5 km above mean sea level.

♦ The upper air cyclonic circulation over Comorin area and adjoining Srilanka has become less marked.

 

Under The influence of these factors Goa along with North Konkan, Mumbai, Saurashtra, Kutch and Central Maharashtra was expected to receive rainfall from February 28 continuing to March 1 and 2.

 

 

The 850 hPa Wind chart on the left clearly indicates the SW winds lashing Goa and N Konkan under the influence of the westerly trough, and extending into Central Maharashtra. The satellite image on the right shows a massive thunderstorm approaching Goa around midnight of February 28.

Till 0830 hrs on March 1, by which time rains had almost stopped, Ponda recorded the maximum rainfall of 54 mm. The rainfall for the other centres are as below:

Morning over Goa was partly overcast and rainfall is expected at a few places on March 1 evening and at isolated places on March 2, before retreating!

Overcast Skies at Margao at 1000 hrs, March 1, 2015

 

Nippy November mornings ahead!

This week, for the first time this year, morning temperatures dropped below 20C, giving a nippy feel experience to early risers in Goa!

November 26 recorded 19.3C and November 27 recorded 19.2C, both around 2-3C below normal.

While Northern Plains of India are in the grip of a cold wave, as detailed in the latest Blog entry at the weather blog Vagaries of Weather, Goa has been reeling under hot, humid weather for whole of November, till now.

Though the days continue to record maximum temperatures of 33-34C, the cold northerly winds are expected to lower both the maximum and minimum temperatures over coming days.

 You can follow the daily temperature chart for Panaji here

Hot Sunny Days in November!

Goa is experiencing a spell of hot sunny days in late November!

Day temperatures reach 34-35 C around mid-day, but are above 30C for most of the day!

Early morning the temperature measures around 21 to 22 C with the minimum temperature on the morning of November 20, 2014 in fact climbing to 22.8C!


The daily temperature chart for Panaji as per IMD records, is available at Vagaries Goa daily temperature page here and is reproduced below. Except for a couple of days in the middle of the month when overcast skies and rains prevailed over Goa, the Day temperatures hover around 34-35 with humidity coming down below 50% mid day and early morning temperatures record 21- 22C, with humidity around 80%. Temperatures are 2-3 C lower in the interiors of Goa.

It appears that the cold winds from the North will take some more days to reach Goa and lower the temperatures!

Till then enjoy summer in November, in Goa!

November Rains - Updated November 16, 2014

Updated November 16, 2014

No rains reported in Goa on November 15. Sunday Nov 16 is sunny with clear blue skies. 

Updated on November 15, 2014 1430 hrs:

South Goa recorded more rainfall than North Goa in 24 hrs ending 0830 November 15. Some notable mentions:
Sanguem - 19 mm
Canacona - 17.6 mm
Margao - 12.6 mm (IMD)
Margao - 11 mm (Vagaries Goa)...
Sanquelim (N Goa) - 9.8 mm
Panaji - 3.3 mm

Posted November 14, 2014

Overcast sky conditions have prevailed in Goa for two days since November 13, under the influence of west coast trough extending from Gujarat to Kerala.

Light rains were experienced in all parts of Goa on November 14 from mid day onwards.

Panaji IMD recorded 3.3 mm between 0830 to 1730 hrs and Vagaries Goa at Margao recorded 2 mm during the same period.

Higher rainfall amounts were reported from interior Goa.

Due to the rains day's high temperature came down to 29.8C, 3 degrees below normal. However mornings continue to be warmer with 24.3C being 2 degrees above normal.

Skies are expected to clear over the weekend and no further rains are expected, along the coastal belt.

 

Feels like winter is round the corner! Posted October 30, 2014

After months of hot and humid weather and the monsoon rains and then more rains, the morning of October 30 dawned with a sure promise of Winter round the corner, albeit Goa style!

October 30 morning recorded the lowest temperature of the month so far at 21.3C!

A lovely morning with cool winds, blue skies and soft sunshine.

It can only get better and cooler from here, for those of us who have had enough of the rains and the heat!!

The day highs will continue to be between 31-33 C for still some more days!

Cyclone Nilofar has rapidly downgraded to a deep depression at 1730 IST on October 30, from a category 4 cyclone within 36 hrs. It lay to the west south west of Kutch and is expected to bring some heavy showers to Kutch in Gujarat and Sindh in Pakistan. But these regions will be spared of any cyclonic threats.

For those desiring more detailed information on Cyclone Nilofar, please checkout the regular posts from Weather Guru Rajesh Kapadia at http://www.vagaries.in

Hot Diwali ahead - Posted October 17, 2014

School Holidays have started for the long Diwali vacation Holidays and that's just good as well, because the October Heat is really setting in Goa and how do you study and answer mid term exams in this sweltering heat?

 Ever since the SW Monsoon withdrew from Goa on October 12 - check this post, the day temperatures and the night temperatures have been steadily hitting north!

As per the temperature records maintained by IMD Goa, From October 1 to October 15, 2014, we get the following data for the first half of October:

Day Max Temp - 33.7C on October 5
Day Min Temp - 30.8C on October 8

Night Max Temp - 25.3C on October 3 and 13
Night Min Temp - 22.9C on October 7

Average Day Temp - 32.45C
Average Night Temp - 24.35C

However the first day of the second half, October 16, turned out to be the hottest month so far!

IMD Goa at Panaji recorded:

Day High - 35.3C
Night Low - 25.9C

While the humidity hovered over 85% in the morning, by afternoon it dropped to 50%, again rising in the evening under the influence of the winds blowing from the sea! The Heat Index touching 45C!

(Source: IMD-AWS Data for Panaji October 16, 2014)

As the hot dry winds continue to blow over Goa from the East till around noon and the cooler winds from the west and North west commence only in the later part o the day, it looks like day and night temperatures are set to hover around 36 - 37C and 27- 28C at least for the next few days, with Real Feel of temperature touching as high as 45C in the afternoon!

So get set for a Hot Diwali this year!! 

Goa Monsoon 2014 Analysis - Happy Ending!

The South West Monsoon Season brings the bulk of the rains to Goa every year.

The Monsoon season lasts from June 1 to September 30th.

Monsoon season 2014 started with the scary prospect of deficient rains! There was a talk everywhere of an El Nino in August - September. And to compound the problem, arrival of the rains in Goa was delayed by 5 days. From June 1 to June 30 Goa received nearly 46% deficient rains. But it was the copious rains that Goa received in July and August which turned the tide! Check these blog posts for details of June 2014 Monsoon Analysis,  July 2014 Monsoon Analysis,  August 2014 Monsoon Analysis

In 2014 in the final analysis, from June 1 to September 30, Goa received Area Weighted Average Rainfall of 3057.2 mm (120.36 inches) against normal of 2971.7 mm (117 inches) showing a surplus of 3%! The pattern of rain during the four months is brought out in the IMD Goa prepared daily average rainfall graph in Figure 1, the Monthly Rainfall and total Rainfall graph in Figure 2 and the cumulative rainfall graph in Figure 3 below.

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

IMD Goa maintains daily records at 13 Rain Stations across Goa. It was again Valpoi at the base of the Western Ghats in the Eastern Interior Goa which retained the title of the wettest place in Goa for 2014! Valpoi received 4111.4 mm (161.87 inches) of seasonal rains. It was closely followed like last year by Sanguem, also at the base of the Western Ghats but more to the South. Sanguem received 3950.2 mm (155.52 inches) of seasonal rainfall. Margao, Canacona and Sakhali also made it to the top 5 wettest spots. See Figure 4.

Figure 4

The rains decreased from the interior towards the coast and the Port town of Mormugao with 2460.3 mm (94.74 inches) and the Airport town of Dabolim with 2337.8 mm (92.04 inches) occupied the bottom of the table. In fact these two places were the only places which did not cross the Century of Seasonal Rainfall in inches. Rest all places crossed 100 inches of rainfall.

A graphical depiction of the seasonal rainfall in Google Earth shows the variation quite well.

Figure 5

Rainfall in September 2014 was almost entirely restricted to the first half of the month.

Vagaries Goa Rain Gauge which is located at Margao brought this out well as seen in the daily rainfall readings in Figure 6.

Figure 6

The last few days of September witnessed  thunderstorms in the late afternoons associated with retreating monsoon. The thunderstorms which start in the interior from the east and proceed towards the west and the Arabian sea, brought increasing rainfall in the interior. Figure 7 shows the September 2014 rainfall pattern across Goa.

Figure 7

Margao monthly rainfall in Figure 8, is representative of the rainfall pattern this year across the state of Goa.

Figure 8

So even though the seasonal monsoon rains in 2014 were less than 2013, the fears of El Nino did not materialize and the copious rains in August were just enough to turn the deficit into a 3% surplus rainfall season for Goa!

Just for comparison Figure 9 shows the Sub-division wise average rainfall across India. Thus India as a whole showed a deficit of 12%! For a more detailed look at the performance of Monsoons in India for 2014 check this post at the weather blog www.vagaries.in.

Figure 9

Though the Monsoon season ends on September 30, the withdrawal of monsoon from Goa usually gets prolonged till mid October. And so the monsoon magic continues!

 

The Heat is On!

As is usual at this time of the year, Goa has started to feel the hot, humid sultry weather truly setting in beginning March! Coinciding with the northward march of the Sun, the temperatures across the Indian sub continent will only move northwards, fulfilling one of the major requirements for setting in of the Monsoons in May - June.

The chill which was felt towards February end, continued into March. But the Minimum temperatures experienced continued to rise steadily, from the sub 20 C in early March to a maximum of 26.2 in the early hours of the morning on the last day of the month, March 31st. The warm winds blowing from south - south east being a major factor contributing! Relative Humidity of 86% (+ 08 above normal) on March 31 morning, meant a hazy, warm and humid day to end the month! The coolest day in March on 2nd day of the month, was soon a distant memory!

The month of March ended with the following statistics:

Max High Temperature: 37.3 C March 13
Min High Temoerature: 30.6 C March 02

Max Low Temperature: 26.2 C March 31
Min Low Temperature: 17.6 C March 02

The Maximum High of 37.3 C was lower than the recent all time high of 39 C reached in March 1979! Last year the maximum high in March of 35.6 C was also recorded on March 13!

The precipitation recorded was NIL in March, considering that traces were experienced in the interior areas of Goa mid March,

Parts of South, East and Central India are already experiencing max temperatures around 40 C, and the summer is just beginning!

The graphs of the Average temperatures over India in February 2014 and the Maximum temperatures in the last week of March 2014, dramatically bring out the increase in temperatures.

Plenty to ponder on what's in store for the coming summer months!

Take care, Stay cool!!

And stay connected to this blog on Facebook at www.facebook.com/weatheringoa for the latest!

Update July 21, 2013 - Battered by Rain

In the 96 hrs period ending 8.30 am Sunday July 21, 2013, Goa was battered with continuous rains in almost all parts of the state.

Average 96 hrs Rainfall till 8.30 am July 21, 2013

During the last 4 days Panaji and Margao received nearly 60 mm (2.36 in) rain daily while Valpoi at the base of the western ghats received 112 mm (4.40 in) rain daily.

However Sunday July 21 has seen rains easing off. While the skies have remained heavily overcast, rainfall recorded in most parts of the state till 5.30 pm has been less than 10 mm from 8.30 am onwards. Rains have come in short intense bursts and are likely to continue rest of the evening.

However rest of the week, particularly 1st half, promises to be equally wet for Goa with rains in the region of 30 - 60 mm predicted per day, under the influence of a lowoff the coast of Orissa.

Goa (circled in red) along with rest of west coast of India is forecast to receive more than 200 mm rains during the period from July 21 to 28, 2013 as per this prediction by NCEP.

Rains have brought the temperatures below normal with Day temperature around 27C and night temperature around 23C. Humidity however if around 98%.

Valpoi Rainfall reaches the Century Mark!

Valpoi will reach the milestone of 100 inches of rainfall today July 18, within 48 days of the start of the monsoon season!

Rains in Goa has seen increased activity from Tuesday evening, with most places receiving 30-60 mm in the 24 hrs ending Thursday July 18, 8.30 am, except Valpoi (97.6 mm) and Ponda (90.4 mm). This brought Vapoi's total seasonal rain so far to 99.28 inches (2521.8 mm) just short of the century mark, which is sure to be surpassed today!

With Goa expected to receive 30-60 mm daily average rain till Saturday, and then tapering on Sunday, sunshine may be in rare supply! But this is normal for Goa in July. Five - six intense downpours and light drizzle, with more rains in the interior of Goa.

Rain forecast till July 20

Very interesting data for High Rainfall areas of India from June 1 to July 13, 2013 prepared by Pradeep John is available at the website of the blog vagaries of weather

According to data the top three places with highest rainfall in India till July 13, 2013 are:
1. Talacavery (Karnataka) - 3600 mm
2. Agumbe (Karnataka) - 3451 mm
3. Surabhi (Karnataka) - 3431 mm

Cherrapunji (Meghalaya) with 2663 mm was at the 17th place, mainly because NE India has received deficient rain so far!

Valpoi finds a mention on this venerated list at 55th spot, so take a look. Many more familiar place names from neighbouring states in the list too!