Monsoon weak over Goa - Expected to be active after June 14, 2015

Posted June 11, 2015

After the onset on June 9, SW Monsoon has remained weak over Goa, and stalled in South Konkan.

The NW trajectory of the cyclone Ashobaa towards Oman, is held responsible for diverting the moisture away from east Arabian Sea, even though the onset was helped initially by the cyclone in its stage of being a Depression, as it passed along the coast, before veering NW.

Vagaries rain gauge has recorded only traces on June 10 and throughout the day on June 11. The sky in the south west direction was mostly clear, with blue sky shining through throughout the day.

However the influence of Ashobaa over Arabian Sea is now over, and monsoon winds are organizing once again.

Monsoon is expected to progress further and Goa is expected to receive heavy rains after June 15, as the trough develops off the coast.

The day temperature average around 32C and night temperatures around 24C.

Monsoon has arrived in Goa on June 8 - According to IMD

IMD in its latest Bulletin released at noon on June 8, 2015, has declared the arrival of Monsoon in Goa, besides Coastal Karnataka and South Konkan.

However Vagaries believes that the Monsoon has covered coastal Karnataka today and will reach Goa on June 9th, based on the monsoon trough strength and SW winds.

The Tropical Storm has now intensified into Cyclone Ashobaa and lies North West of Goa at 17.9 N and 67.2 E, with a NW track.

As Ashobaa moved away from Goa, it helped the South Westerly winds to detach from the Cyclone and for the trough to strengthen, allowing for the swift move of Monsoon into Goa and coastal west India.

Tropical Depression off the Coast of Goa - Strong winds and rains lashing the coast. Posted June 7, 2015, 2.15 pm

Since Morning of June 7th Goa, specially coastal Goa has been lashed by strong winds from southerly direction, instead of the usual westerly direction at this time of the day ( after 10 am). Huge Cumulonimbi with the Pileus haircut(!) were seen off the coast in south west direction. Skies are now overcast and rains with strong winds are lashing the coastal areas, as this is being posted.

All this is due the Tropical Depression, referred to as AS1 by Vagaries, off the coast of Goa and moving in NW direction.

The latest IMD Press Release is reproduced below:

FROM: INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

Time of issue: 1130 hours IST Dated: 07.06.2015

Bulletin No.: ARB01/2015/01

Sub: Depression over eastcentral Arabian Sea. Latest satellite imagery and observations indicate that a depression has formed over eastcentral Arabian Sea and lay centred at 0830 hours IST of today, the 07th June, 2015 near latitude 14.50 N and longitude 68.50 E, about 690 km southwest of Mumbai, 740 km southsouthwest of Veraval and 1230 km southeast of Masirah Island (Oman). It would move northnorthwestwards and intensify further into a deep depression during next 24 hrs. Strong winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would prevail along and off Maharashtra, Konkan and Goa coasts during next 48 hrs. Sea condition would be rough along and off Maharashtra, Konkan and Goa coasts during the same period. Fishermen along and off Maharashtra, Konkan and Goa coasts are advised to be cautious while venturing into the sea during next 48 hours.

Caution:
Please refer/rely on IMD Bulletins/Advisories for Storms & Weather related matter at http://www.imdgoa.gov.in 

IMD announces arrival of SW Monsoon in Kerala and Coastal and South Karnataka

Today June 5, 2015, IMD announced that the SW Monsoons had met all the onset criteria and had set in Kerala and Coastal South Karnataka, including Manalore and Mysore.

IMD had earlier forecast the monsoons to reach Kerala by May 30 +/- 4 days.

However the monsoon currents are weak and are expected to take another 3-4 days to reach Goa.

This Monsoons may reach Goa not earlier than June 9.

Pre - Monsoon rains batter North Goa - June 4, 2015

June 4, 2015 witnessed some heavy thunderstorms in North Goa particularly towards the interior.

Begining 4.00 pm, thunderstorm cells began to form from the western Ghats in the Valpoi, Sanquelim area and by 8.00 pm had spread towards the sea across Mapusa and Panaji.

Sanquelim recorded nearly 4 inches, Old Goa, Ponda and Panaji 2 inches. Mormugao, Dabolim and Mapusa also received substantial rains, bringing down the the temperature and catching late evening commuters by surprise.

However Vagaries Goa Raingauge at Aquem, Margao recorded only 1 mm. While Sanguem and Quepem also in South Goa received only traces.

From http://www.navhindtimes.in

The evening rains brought down the early morning minimum temperature in Panjim to 21.6C which is 4C below normal.

Late evening showers are expected at many places in Goa over the next few days. Monsoon is expected to arrive in Goa by 9th or 10th June, 4 days beyond normal onset.

Monsoon 2015 Arrival Dates for Goa

After the overnight thunderstorms in parts of Goa on the intervening nights of May 31 - June 1, conditions have largely remained Suny and Hot in Goa, with only traces of rains in some parts.

With pre monsoon rains not yet started, Goa is set to miss its normal Monsoon arrival dates of June 6 or 7.

Instead, both IMD and Vagaries of Weather Blog now expect Monsoon to arrive in Goa on June 9.

The Directorate of Education, Government of Goa in a rare move, has postponed the opening of schools for the new academic year to June 8 from June 4, on account of the inconvenience to the students and teachers from heat and humidity.

As of June 3, SW Monsoon has already missed its normal date of June 1 for onset over Kerala and is now expected to reach there on June 4. It normally takes 5 days for the Monsoon to travel from Kerala to Goa.

The normal and actual position of arrival of Monsoon on June 3, 2015; as per IMD and Vagaries of Weather is as below:

Vagaries of Weather SW Monsoon Progress Map June 2, 2015

IMD SW Monsoon Progress Map June 3, 2015

The delay in onset of monsoon over Kerala and west coast of India, including Goa, is not being helped by the winds of the Arabian Sea  Branch, still not getting organised in SW direction, as seen in the 850 hPa wind Chart below:

As mentioned in this post of Vagaries of Weather:

"The latest chart of sea level pressure shows a Low (AS-1) forming in the South Arabain Sea.
The off shore trough, likely to form off Karnataka-Kerala coast by 3rd June, will embed the Low. AS-1 will show as a Low off the Karnataka coast by 4th, and will pull up the South West Monsoon into Kerala. As-1 will, as mentioned deepen to a Well Marked Low and fizzle out by 6th/7th June in the Sea.........Rains increasing in Goa from 5th...and Monsoon setting in around 9th."

We shall see in the next post what IMD and Vagaries of Weather have to say about the quantum of the seasonal rains this year for India and for the Western Region.

May 2015 - Hottest Month in the Calendar Year!

In 2015 too, month of May lived up to its reputation as being the hottest month in the calendar year!

The average High and average Low temperatures recorded were the highest during last 12 months:

The Average High was 34.82C and Average Low was 26.75C.

Day temperatures were between 34-36C and the night temperatures around 26-27C.

Low of 21.5C was recorded on the morning of May 6th following thunderstorm that lashed Goa on the 5th. See this post .

In fact there were 6 days with convectional rains in the whole month, but no pre-monsoon showers!

The second half of the month proved far more hotter than the first half.

The dips in the morning temperatures coincide with the days rains were recorded.

The variation in temperatures was as expected very narrow.

May 31st marks the official end of the Summer Season in India.

This year May 31st turned out to be a super Sunday, with clear skies and no rains. Beaches were full of school children enjoying the last Sunday before the end of their Summer vacations and local population making the most of the dry weather!

Benaulim Beach May 31, 2015

Benaulim Beach May 31, 2015

The Monsoon Season Lasts from June 1 to September 30.

Monsoon is forecast to reach Goa on June 9th this year. Check this post on Vagaries Goa Blog for details.

Like us on our Facebook Page to keep in touch with the weather in Goa on a daily basis.

And keep checking Vagaries Goa Blog for all the details of SWM 2015 Season in Goa!