SW Monsoon arrival dates for Goa - June 5

The normal SW Monsoon arrival date in Goa is June 5.

This year the monsoons are expected to reach Goa around June 5 -7,

The monsoon has already reached Southern Andaman on May 17 and are expected to completely cover the islands by May 20.

The pre monsoon showers have started in Goa.

Yesterday May 17, saw areas  closer to Ghats like Valpoi, Sanquelim, Usgaon as far as Ponda saw moderate to heavy downpours in late afternoon accompanied by thunder and lightening. Today early morning saw overcast skies and light rains many coastal areas.

Next few days would see overcast conditions in late afternoon and early mornings. But days would be clear with high humidity and temps at 33-35 C.

Update May 7, 2014 - Chances of torrential Rain for the weekend decrease

The tropical Depression Invest 91B has moved Northwards to 8.1N 78E and winds have slowed down to 35 kph, compared to May 6.

The NW corner of the system is showing heavy rains affecting Kerala coast and coast of S. Karnataka.

Further movement northwards is being prevented by an upper trough and a high ressure ridge.

The system is expected to move inland into S. Karnataka by Wednesday May 7 evening and Thursday and bring rains to Karnataka coast.

Parts of Goa will get rains on Wednesday evening and Thursday May 8, after which the system is expected to fizzle out.

Saturday and Sunday May 9 and 10, should see return of clear weather back in Goa with highs of 33-34 C and lows of 25-26 C and humidity in rnge of 70 - 80 %RH.

The Invest B91 on May 7 is as below:

Torrential Rains in Goa on May 8, 9 and 10?

Posted on May 6, 2:30 pm

NEXT UPDATE May 7 Morning

Torrential Rains are being forecast for Goa by weather experts http://www.vagaries.in as well as other weather models.

The cause for this speculation is the development of a low pressure depression, South west of Colombo Sri Lanka, which is consolidating into a Tropical Storm and travelling N, N-W.

The IMD Mid Day Report for May 6, 2014 states that " The low pressure area over comorin area and neighbourhood  has  now become well marked low pressure area  with associated upper air cyclonic circulation extending upto mid tropospheric levels. It is likely to move northwest wards and would concentrated into a depression by tomorrow".

The satellite images for May 6 confirm the development.

The system identified as Tropical Depression Invest 91B is currently located at 6.3N 78E, with speeds of 46 kmh, rapidly developing into a Tropical Storm and moving N N-W.

 

Several Parts of Southern TN and Kerala are getting torrential rains since yesterday under its influence.

 

As it travels N N-W into the Arabian Sea and crosses inland into southern coastal Karnataka, South Interior Karnataka, Coastal Karnataka and South Goa are forecast to experience torrential rains on Thursday 8, Friday 9, tapering on Saturday 10th May.

 

The IGES/COLA GFS Forecast Meteogram f or Goa indicates low cloud cover, bringing upto 12-15 mm of rains on May 9.

 

The situation can off course change depending on the wind direction, and movement of the developing storm.



 

April Temperature Trend for Goa

April 2014 was hot and sultry, marked with rising lows and high humidity.

The temperature stats are as under:

High Max	35.8 C	Apr-03
Low Max	32.8 C	Apr-01
High Min	28.1 C	Apr-28
Low Min	21.8 C	Apr-13
Average Max Month		34.3 C
Average Min Month		25.5 C
First Half April '14
Average Max		34.1 C
Average Min		24.5 C

Second Half April '14

Average Max          34.3 C

Average Min           26.5 C

Precipitation recorded (by IMD Goa) - 1.7 mm on April 26

A severe squall with hails and rains struck Satari Taluka for nearly 2 hrs on April 4, leaving much damage behind. Details as posted in this blog post

The second half of April saw significantly higher low temperatures and humidity, resulting in mild isolated showers in the state. In fact almost the whole of India saw lows around 25 C and above as seen in the figure below:

The rising temperatures in the second half are set to continue to rise into May, setting the scene hopefully, for advancement of SW Monsoon into Goa in early June. Let's wait and see!

IMD Long Range Forecast for SW Monsoon 2014

ESSO-India Meteorological Department (IMD) issues various monthly and seasonal operational forecasts for rainfall during the southwest monsoon season. Operational forecasts for the southwest monsoon season (June – September) rainfall are issued in two stages. The first stage forecast is issued in April and the second stage forecast is issued in June. 

Summary of the ESSO-IMD’s Operational long range Forecast for the 2014 Southwest monsoon rainfall  proposes that the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 95% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm.

The 5 category probability forecasts for the Seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is given below:

Category	Rainfall Range (% of LPA)	Forecast Probability (%)	Climatological Probability (%)
Deficient	< 90	23	16
Below Normal	90 - 96	33	17
Normal	96 -104	35	33
Above Normal	104 -110	8	16
Excess	> 110	1	17

The complete details of the IMD press release is here

 

Hot and Sultry in Goa - Update April 26, 2014

Parts of Goa witnessed light showers on the nights of April 24 and 25.

Across the western ghats rains upto 15 mm were recorded at Belgaum AP and also in the adjacent Dharward belt, under the influence of Line of Wind Discontinuity.

The week has been hot and humid in Goa with real feel max day temperatures in 40Cs and humidity around RH 80%, making for sultry days and nights.

The recorded day temperature max are howering around 35C and minimum night temperatures 2C above normal, touching 28C on April 25, breaking one more record.

The days will remain hot and hazy with no significant drop in humidity and a further gradual increase in day and night temperatures till April end.

This weather behavior is normal for April and May, leading to favorable conditions for onset of monsoon in June.

Warm, Humid weekend ahead

A low level circulation in Central India and the Line of Wind Discontinuity extending from South Madhya Pradesh to South Tamilnadu, brings rains along the LWD and to N- NW Karnataka Thursday and Friday.

This signals the end of clear days and nights being experienced in Goa since Sunday April 13. See this blog post

As a result the minimum temperatures are expected to rise again to 26C with humidity in the region of 75-80%. Maximum temperatures in the range 34-35C, with mid level cloud cover are expected.

The above INSAT image shows cloud cover for Goa at around 19:15 hrs on April and rains in Orrisa, along the LWD in south India and north and central India.